Reality is somewhere in between. Division games probably go the other way slightly more than other games and part of that is obviously familiarity, but it's not like heavy favorites are just coin flips either. Pats lose more division games than people assume, but it's usually just 1 or sometimes 2."division games, anything can happen, rivalries matter and stats don't reflect what you should expect!"
"Patriots get 6 free stat padding wins per season from their division of shitters"
Pick 1.