SPAC & IPO Ideas

CCIV sub-$20 today. I have sworn off zero-revenue EV manufacturers for now as I see the big players in the IC engine space making their inroads.

Started a position in GSAH at $10.25

Jysin said:

Somma bitch. Got me beat by 2c.

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This is my 1st entry so its about a half position. I will double it if it drops to $10 in the near future.

Chamath has always been a shyster pump and dump clown who spit out SPACs to collect founder's profits. Fuck him.

TheBeagle said:

Well, the SPAC boom was fun while it lasted.

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It’s rather spectacular how they died out overnight. Didn’t expect that. I reckon it’s a matter of time before they become popular again, barring new regulation that just permanently kills them.

Jackie Treehorn said:

It’s rather spectacular how they died out overnight. Didn’t expect that. I reckon it’s a matter of time before they become popular again, barring new regulation that just permanently kills them.

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Khane said:

They "died" overnight because there are far too many now. When there are 50 its reasonable to assume some, or even most can find decent companies to bring public. When there are 700 that confidence dwindles rather quickly.

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SPAC fever was driven by volume and speculation. That all got out of the door and is chasing the new shiny... doggiecoin and its ilk. We are back to where it was last spring/early summer last year. SPACs sitting around NAV waiting for a DA.

Maxed out my position in BTNB at $10.05 and got my cost basis down to $11.
edit: Ditto with BTWN, got my cost basis down to around $11.25

I have to say my confidence in SPACs is a bit wobbly given the general lack of activity from buyers and the SPACs themselves. If I were to only keep two of the three I have (BTNB, XPOA, PSTH) which should I drop?

Obvious answer is "whichever I'd lose the least by dropping" which would be XPOA. Or maybe that's the opposite of the obvious answer, because losing the least means you got in at the best point. The highest-average above NAV of the three is BTNB which I'm at 11.30 on, averaged-out, so I'd lose a couple hundo. XPOA I got at 9.90 so I'd lose nothing and may even profit, but it's giving up a nice position. PSTH is actually well above NAV too with 24.50 as the average.

The answer I'd like to hear is "none of them, buy into them more while the price is so good". Unfortunately that same sentiment applies to crypto, and I've got zero Ethereum and only so much to go around.

Rajaah said:

I have to say my confidence in SPACs is a bit wobbly given the general lack of activity from buyers and the SPACs themselves. If I were to only keep two of the three I have (BTNB, XPOA, PSTH) which should I drop?

Obvious answer is "whichever I'd lose the least by dropping" which would be XPOA. Or maybe that's the opposite of the obvious answer, because losing the least means you got in at the best point. The highest-average above NAV of the three is BTNB which I'm at 11.30 on, averaged-out, so I'd lose a couple hundo. XPOA I got at 9.90 so I'd lose nothing and may even profit, but it's giving up a nice position. PSTH is actually well above NAV too with 24.50 as the average.

The answer I'd like to hear is "none of them, buy into them more while the price is so good". Unfortunately that same sentiment applies to crypto, and I've got zero Ethereum and only so much to go around.

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I own all three. One is Bill Ackman, one is Peter Thiel/Richard Li and the other is Google Founders. I think they are all three poised to do something decent. IF I truly had to choose I would dump XPOA only because that founder team lacks a more financial based Founder team. But I honestly would keep all three.

What is happening in SPACs is how they worked before they become a flavor of the month. You bought at/near NAV and waited for a DA. The SPAC craze kind of fucked up expectations for newer SPAC investors.

That face when your SPACs break above $10...

I think there are only a few of us left in the SPAC world as the rest have left for the FOMO pastures of doggiecoin, but I am dropping this anyway.

Once you SPACs hit NAV/sub-NAV there really isnt a reason to dump them except for the opportunity cost element. If you bought above NAV, this is already a sunk cost. The next part, however, is really important. This ALL changes after a merge. Keep an eye on the vote dates. If you are underwater and the vote is soon you need to make a call to cut bait and eat the loss or not. After the merge the NAV floor goes away. That SPAC trading at $9.90 can quickly become that public company trading at $6.50.

If there is no DA or LOI, then once its NAV/sub-NAV your added risk profile is basically close to zero. You have a paper loss but the threat of additional "major" bleeding is minimal. From an opportunity loss perspective, remember you need to calculate in the realized loss into any new use of that capital if you eat the loss to reallocate and weigh it versus a possible spike up that might occur for a DA announcement. Do the math before you trade.

Sanrith Descartes said:

The next part, however, is really important. This ALL changes after a merge. Keep an eye [ON THIS THREAD].

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Will do sir!

Tmac said:

Will do sir!

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Best thing to do is hit Twitter and $<symbol> each day to keep up on the latest news. So check out $BTWN a couple of times a day for BTWN news and info.