Survivor

lanx_sl said:

that's the thing tho, us the viewers, can see that trish is a really good social gamer, but would the idiotic jury see it?

look at the jury now, 4 beauties and 1 brawn, all mostly women. they aren't smart and just think that trish is a tag-a-long just like jefra.

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I think Trish will win as long as she isn't sitting next to Tony, Spencer or Tasha. That's about right as far as "deserving it" goes taking social/strategic/physical play all into consideration. She's done very well, and as long as she can effectively articulate her game to the jury she'll have a good shot at winning. This scenario is a pretty big long shot, though.

Yeah, for sure. It might even be worse than Russell/Natalie if things keep going this way, as Woo has done even less in the game than Natalie did. I don't really see a scenario where this happens, though. I think Woo will take the fall for Tony sometime over the next two votes while Tony is immune, Tony will go as soon as he is vulnerable, and Kirun will be wearing a new avatar for 39 days!

Shit, my avatar is starting to twitch. RIP Tasha.

I just don't get the Tony-Hantz comparisons (regarding game play, he may very well get 'Hantzed' in a final vote), especially not by the players (was it Tasha and Kass?). Hantz was notorious for being a bully to your face and then getting you voted out. He was a joke and that is why he never got votes. Maybe I'm forgetting something, but I can't remember a moment where Tony was actually a dick to someone's face or even in confessionals (another thing Hantz is notorious for). Tony acts both kindly towards other players and often is complementary of them in his confessionals. More often than not, he comes off as the sane and reasonable one in any conversation he has had. Like when he was apologizing to Kass for coming off as condescending (which he wasn't) and her only response was "good for you".

I think they even justified their comparison by saying something along the lines of "Tony is a bully, anyone that has made a move against him has been sent home." Can't remember the exact quote, but whatever it was I laughed my ass off at the ridiculousness and naivety of it.

I didn't see it before this episode because no one said anything about it. As long as the perception of a bully isn't there, then it's a non-issue. Now that it has been brought up, though, it could mean that everyone has that perception (I still don't think so, but we'll see). What Kass doesn't realize, though, is that the jury hates her 10x more than they hate him, and Tony would probably sweep a final tribal against her. She's equating Russell-like play to aggressiveness, but fails to realize that Tony is (to this point) much more likable than a real Russell type player. Too bad Tasha had to open her mouth about it.

All of that said, I still think that the only person left who can beat Tony head to head in a final vote is Spencer. Spencer > Tony >> Trish >>>> Woo > Kass.

Great episode.

Not much to say since I agree with what's been said.

Woo has some B-ball skillz!

I am kind of surprised that Tasha and Spencer did not use the fight and Tony's paranoia again this episode to team up against Kass. I really think that was a bad move to set up a weird split vote to try to flush out two idols. It would have never worked. However, knocking out Kass, while knocking out a definite no final vote, would have at least kept them both alive for another round...

Preview didn't show family visit, and I think its the second to last episode. Doesn't mean it isn't next week, but I can't remember a season where it wasn't in the episode preview.

Kirun_sl said:

I really think people overestimate how great of a player Spencer is. He's definitely been a solid player and you could make the argument that he's never had the numbers to be great, but great players figure out a way to work against the numbers. Russel was outnumbered as hell, yet pretty much ran the game by playing off of other people's weaknesses.

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He's made one move post-merge (getting Tony to freak out over Jeffra) and gotten a really good edit.

Kirun_sl said:

I would've been more inclined to believe Tony didn't have a chance in hell, until I saw the "fallout" from the LJ vote. After that, I knew that Woo and Trish were wrapped around his finger.

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Oh, even when I made the bet I thought he had the best chance of winning, let alone just making the finals (I said as much in the post). I made the bet because you said it'd take a miracle from Tasha and Spencer to get him out, and I just don't think that's true. That's why it's a bet though, I never thought either of us had it in the bag. The only confidence I had was that even though Tony was the favorite I was giving him a <50% shot at winning. Right now I'd put him at >50%, but still not a guarantee.

Totally agree on the Ponderosa part. They need to be separated from each other as much as possible.

I really don't get why people are just content to go with the flow this late in the game. It has to be even super obvious to them that Tony needs to go. I don't buy the whole jury is pissed off at Tony one bit. He's actually been a pretty nice guy and hasn't been a douche, imho. If he's there at the end you have to vote for him to win. His game has been vastly superior to everyone else. Spencer would be up there but really has had such shitty luck. It's a shame because he really knows how to play the game too.