The Astronomy Thread

AngryGerbil

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I hate you, Mr. 'Realist Lawyer Man'.

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GrumpyGerbil
 

Ukerric

Bearded Ape
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There is intelligent life out there but they could be so far away that we'll never meet.
There was a paper a couple years ago that plotted the possible number of civilizations in the galaxy and the chances that we would haven't seen any signs of them nor heard any modulated radio wave. The curve drops below 50% at 7 technological advanced civilizations.
Fuckin' A. Just knowing if they are cells or not would be amazing.
And it might be Bad News.

One of the things from the above is the Great Filter (the missed factor in Drake's Equation that basically makes it less than 7 civs instead of 100k). If the Great Filter lies in our past (life is hard to start, life is difficult to go complex, intelligence is hard, technic civ is hard) then we've passed it and glorious future may lie ahead of us. If the Great Filter is still ahead (civs don't last and die out fast), then we're doomed.

Finding a separate and distinct instance of life in our own system means the "life is hard" filter does not exists, and thus we're more likely to have the Great Filter waiting for us.

(the exoplanet bonanza has already taught us that the possible Great Filters "stars usually don't have planets" "planets that are potentially habitable are rare" are incorrect)
 

Tripamang

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There was a paper a couple years ago that plotted the possible number of civilizations in the galaxy and the chances that we would haven't seen any signs of them nor heard any modulated radio wave. The curve drops below 50% at 7 technological advanced civilizations.

And it might be Bad News.

One of the things from the above is the Great Filter (the missed factor in Drake's Equation that basically makes it less than 7 civs instead of 100k). If the Great Filter lies in our past (life is hard to start, life is difficult to go complex, intelligence is hard, technic civ is hard) then we've passed it and glorious future may lie ahead of us. If the Great Filter is still ahead (civs don't last and die out fast), then we're doomed.

Finding a separate and distinct instance of life in our own system means the "life is hard" filter does not exists, and thus we're more likely to have the Great Filter waiting for us.

(the exoplanet bonanza has already taught us that the possible Great Filters "stars usually don't have planets" "planets that are potentially habitable are rare" are incorrect)
The "biggest" great filter is most likely behind us, it was the long term stability for complex life to iterate long enough for intelligent life to exist. As far as we know we're the only creature that is/was capable of passing knowledge between generations well enough that we continuously improve our collective knowledge and our ability to exploit energy. We're the product of millions of years of uninterrupted primate evolution and even then we were almost wiped out entirely about 80 thousands years ago. Our hardest days are definitely behind us.

We have the skill sets now to ensure that we can endure most major catastrophes and our ability to produce and use energy is only getting better. Going forward the only real threat to us is ourselves and how well we can maintain world stability to continue our advancements. I don't think anyone sane is looking to throw us back into the dark ages, so the future looks positive. It looks even more positive if you can get the rest of the world educated enough to start contributing, the more people working towards a better humanity the faster it's going to happen.
 

Ukerric

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The "biggest" great filter is most likely behind us, it was the long term stability for complex life to iterate long enough for intelligent life to exist. As far as we know we're the only creature that is/was capable of passing knowledge between generations well enough that we continuously improve our collective knowledge and our ability to exploit energy.
There's two Drake factors in the above, and there are philosophical considerations that it might not be that difficult.

Intelligence, per se, appears to be not too difficult. On Earth alone, at least two if not three genus seem to provide intelligence: primates, corvids, and potentially dolphins. Homo sapiens appear to be the main one with mass cultural accumulation, but culture is definitively a thing among certains primates and even corvids.

So, a number of people argue that, given that at least 2 examples of intelligence and consciousness in completely different orders exist, intelligence should not be very rare, and at least one species from a couple dozen families has created a technic culture, technical culture might not be too hard either.

But, as long as we only have one example of living planet to study, figuring out what the probabilities are is impossible.
 

Sentagur

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There was a paper a couple years ago that plotted the possible number of civilizations in the galaxy and the chances that we would haven't seen any signs of them nor heard any modulated radio wave. The curve drops below 50% at 7 technological advanced civilizations.
Wouldn't an alien civilization need to beam radio signals at us on purpose for them to be detected from earth.
Inverse square law and all, unless a signal is focused and amplified deliberately it would pretty much dissipate after a couple of hundred light years.
 

Sludig

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Figure this thread may be good for it. Wife is interested in telescopes. Not very science based and doesnt know or follow the naked eye night events some of my friends like to watch. Anyone know some good resources for her to get started? I know a tiny bit but hoping for her to do her own research and make it her hobby not just another thing i do and show her.

She said she looked for a local Colorado forum and didn't see anything but I'm sure there is unless there's a major national forum with maybe a by state sub section.

Here's the scope she was looking at. I know enough to avoid cheap ones that advertise how many x it is. I'm not sure if a go to is worthwhile for her starting out. Don't want to get crap, but controlling costs good too until i know it's going to take off for her.

Amazon.com : Sky-Watcher 12 Photo
 

Jysin

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The "biggest" great filter is most likely behind us, it was the long term stability for complex life to iterate long enough for intelligent life to exist. As far as we know we're the only creature that is/was capable of passing knowledge between generations well enough that we continuously improve our collective knowledge and our ability to exploit energy. We're the product of millions of years of uninterrupted primate evolution and even then we were almost wiped out entirely about 80 thousands years ago. Our hardest days are definitely behind us.

We have the skill sets now to ensure that we can endure most major catastrophesand our ability to produce and use energy is only getting better. Going forward the only real threat to us is ourselves and how well we can maintain world stability to continue our advancements. I don't think anyone sane is looking to throw us back into the dark ages, so the future looks positive. It looks even more positive if you can get the rest of the world educated enough to start contributing, the more people working towards a better humanity the faster it's going to happen.
This is fantasy at this point and for the considerable future. Until we actually can perfect interstellar travel, there's a myriad of cosmic catastrophes we are powerless to stop and could doom us as a species if not the entire planet. Granted, the most likely extinction in the near term is self-inflicted. However, you can't simply dismiss extinction level events entirely until we have a means of stopping it or colonizing elsewhere.

I've always been skeptical of radio based SETI efforts and how it plays into the Fermi Paradox. Consider the billions of years the universe has had to create multiple intelligent species. We humans started radio based communications only ~100 years ago? Now consider future tech. In another 100 years, hell.. call it 200 years, we could move on to another means of mass communication altogether. (Completely ignoring the fact that much of the radio frequency spectrum is blocked by the earth's atmosphere.) If you think of the very short window of time for a radio communications based civilization, what are the chances we would be "listening" at the same time another civilization's broadcast (magically uninterrupted) hits our SETI based receivers? If you even consider that 100 years as a whole we have even known about radio communication, we have been listening for about 0.000000002% of theEarth'sexistence, let alone the universe's.
 

Ukerric

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Wow, amazing. And for some reason not able to be shared on Facebook because it's been reported as abusive content so the URL is blocked.
There was a time early this year when the Sagan voice over and credits at the end got dropped. They came back after two months, which I assume is due to some copyright madness stuff. Maybe that's why Facebook blocked it in the first place (and they forgot to unblock after the copyright issues got resolved)?
 

meStevo

I think your wife's a bigfoot gus.
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Successfully in orbit, had some director on who said they'll know everything is in good shape in an hour or so ... and then ended the broadcast.