The Astronomy Thread

Mudcrush Durtfeet · Aug 28, 2021

Big Phoenix said:
Nah. We could colonize the entire Galaxy with non ftl engines, it would just take hundred of thousands of years to a few million years.

Or maybe we can't make generation ships smaller than planets that are stable over millenia. At any realistic improvement of tech based on actual things that work now, it's going to be many thousands of years to get to the nearest star. Making any sort of ship that will survive for 1000s of years that can carry a civilization is probably not within our current technological means. It might never be, we don't really know the limits of technology pushed to the extreme in such a way.

I mean, we haven't even had a civilization last 10000 years on EARTH.

Cybsled · Aug 28, 2021

Big Phoenix said:
Nah. We could colonize the entire Galaxy with non ftl engines, it would just take hundred of thousands of years to a few million years.

Sure, we could. But the feasible part comes into play. Humans usually need a reason to invest in something like that. Basically "how does this benefit me?"

Short of stress factors causing it (ie, solar system is going to get rekt / we ran out of resources in the solar system), you aren't going to find that drive.

Non-FTL would take so long that you remove any economic component, and short of reliable cryosleep that can function for centuries, it's a big ask to require generations of people to stay on a ship headed to a destination they'll never see.

Captain Suave · Aug 28, 2021

IMO if we colonize etra-solar it's going to be having created AI/digital people or with biological 3d printers and DNA blueprints. I just don't see how the incentives line up to make it worthwhile to ship around thousands of fragile human bodies for centuries at a time.

Siddar · Aug 28, 2021

Mudcrush Durtfeet said:
As opposed to BO's issues with the lunar program and historical interference with what SpaceX has been doing?

Bro, please.

I would say putting all of ULA government contracts in jeopardy. Because they can not launch them with non Russian engines until BO actually produces the engines. Counts as more inference then a few legal challenges that are going no where. That they have thrown at space X.

Big Phoenix · Aug 28, 2021

Mudcrush Durtfeet said:
Or maybe we can't make generation ships smaller than planets that are stable over millenia. At any realistic improvement of tech based on actual things that work now, it's going to be many thousands of years to get to the nearest star. Making any sort of ship that will survive for 1000s of years that can carry a civilization is probably not within our current technological means. It might never be, we don't really know the limits of technology pushed to the extreme in such a way.

I mean, we haven't even had a civilization last 10000 years on EARTH.

And Im sure the ancient greeks traveling the aegon in triremes couldnt imagine what we send across the sea today. Number theoretical of ways you can harness various forms of energy to get you to the stars in a few decades. Obviously we are a long ways away from harnessing the likes fusion but a few hundred years in the future? Eventually some human civilization will figure it out. I imagine we wouldnt be far off ourselves if we wherent consumed with retarded bullshit and lead by corrupt leaders.

Just think 5 decades ago we where getting ready to harness fission rockets but we noped out of that to support the most unproductive aspects of our society. What if we hadnt? Where would we be today if we didnt stop development of rockets twice as efficient as our current ones?

Cybsled said:
Humans usually need a reason to invest in something like that. Basically "how does this benefit me?"

Its something humans have done since we left the first caves. We had no idea what was outside, if it was worth it to cross that river or that mountain or that sea but we did.

If for no reason alone it would be to form your own society.

Cybsled · Aug 28, 2021

Big Phoenix said:
Its something humans have done since we left the first caves. We had no idea what was outside, if it was worth it to cross that river or that mountain or that sea but we did.

If for no reason alone it would be to form your own society.

Right, but the reason to cross that river or mountain or sea was "maybe this will enrich me, or my family or clan" or "we can't stay here any longer, maybe we can survive over there"

Big Phoenix · Aug 28, 2021

Cybsled said:
Right, but the reason to cross that river or mountain or sea was "maybe this will enrich me, or my family or clan" or "we can't stay here any longer, maybe we can survive over there"

Sure but look at what people do today. How many climb mount everest or die trying?

With the way the human mind is I dont see how we never leave this solar system. It may not be manifest destiny 2.0, but I would think people will be journeying to the stars eventually assuming humans continue to develop.

Mudcrush Durtfeet · Aug 28, 2021

Big Phoenix said:
And Im sure the ancient greeks traveling the aegon in triremes couldnt imagine what we send across the sea today. Number theoretical of ways you can harness various forms of energy to get you to the stars in a few decades. Obviously we are a long ways away from harnessing the likes fusion but a few hundred years in the future? Eventually some human civilization will figure it out. I imagine we wouldnt be far off ourselves if we wherent consumed with retarded bullshit and lead by corrupt leaders.

Just think 5 decades ago we where getting ready to harness fission rockets but we noped out of that to support the most unproductive aspects of our society. What if we hadnt? Where would we be today if we didnt stop development of rockets twice as efficient as our current ones?

Its something humans have done since we left the first caves. We had no idea what was outside, if it was worth it to cross that river or that mountain or that sea but we did.

If for no reason alone it would be to form your own society.

None of this makes it possible. Certainly there may be things that are possible that we have yet to have a clue about. However, what those things are has nothing to do with what we WANT to be possible.

I mean, where are all the flying cars and fusion power plants they were sure we'd have by now back in the 50s? Those were 1000x times more plausible back then than FTL is now.

***

A lot of people on these forums confuse wishful thinking with reality. This is just yet another case.

Big Phoenix · Aug 28, 2021

Mudcrush Durtfeet said:
I mean, where are all the flying cars and fusion power plants they were sure we'd have by now back in the 50s? Those were 1000x times more plausible back then than FTL is now.

We dont have them because our retarded society instead decided to focus on social welfare, supporting and empowering the most unproductive and unintelligent aspects of society all the while defacto banning the use of the tech we developed then.

Good example is the nuclear industry. Weve turned it into a black sheep and as a result its crippled our deep space exploration programs. Weve had to buy Pu238 from Russia because for the past 20 years weve lacked the ability to create it ourselves. Another one is what happened at the end of Apollo. The plan after Apollo was to use nuclear rockets to get us to Mars. But we canceled that and got the "cheaper" abomination known as the Space Shuttle that doomed us to never leaving leo.

Mudcrush Durtfeet · Aug 28, 2021

Big Phoenix said:
We dont have them because our retarded society instead decided to focus on social welfare, supporting and empowering the most unproductive and unintelligent aspects of society all the while defacto banning the use of the tech we developed then.

Good example is the nuclear industry. Weve turned it into a black sheep and as a result its crippled our deep space exploration programs. Weve had to buy Pu238 from Russia because for the past 20 years weve lacked the ability to create it ourselves. Another one is what happened at the end of Apollo. The plan after Apollo was to use nuclear rockets to get us to Mars. But we canceled that and got the "cheaper" abomination known as the Space Shuttle that doomed us to never leaving leo.

They cancelled the Mars program because it was going to be more expensive than Apollo, by a lot. It would have made the shuttle program look cheap.

Social programs did not and do not stop us from having flying cars and fusion plants. The limits of physics does that.

Big Phoenix · Aug 28, 2021

Mudcrush Durtfeet said:
Social programs did not and do not stop us from having flying cars and fusion plants. The limits of physics does that.

Greater than 50% of the federal budget, 3.3 trillion+ dollars is spent on social welfare today.

But socialism had no impact on the direction of our society.

Mudcrush Durtfeet · Aug 28, 2021

Big Phoenix said:
Greater than 50% of the federal budget, 3.3 trillion+ dollars is spent on social welfare today.

But socialism had no impact on the direction of our society.

Let's not move the goal posts. I say it's the limits of what physics allows that is the issue. SpaceX didn't need trillions of dollars to get reusable rocket technology going. Throwing money at tech by the trillions is not the solution as you get diminishing returns.

Big Phoenix · Aug 28, 2021

Mudcrush Durtfeet said:
Let's not move the goal posts. I say it's the limits of what physics allows that is the issue. SpaceX didn't need trillions of dollars to get reusable rocket technology going. Throwing money at tech by the trillions is not the solution as you get diminishing returns.

I didnt say we need to spend trillions. Giving the dollar figure we spend on social programs is to show how consumed we are on socialism.

Ironic you say SpaceX because thats the whole point. Look at what a well focused talented group of people have been able to achieve in such a short time frame. Imagine if we kept that focus and talent post Apollo.

BrutulTM · Aug 28, 2021

Mudcrush Durtfeet said:
I mean, we haven't even had a civilization last 10000 years on EARTH.

And not many machines last more than 10 years without significant repairs. Even if you take 10 spares of every moving part on the ship you're probably going to be out of them in a couple hundred years unless you come across intergalactic pep boys along the way.

Mudcrush Durtfeet · Aug 28, 2021

Big Phoenix said:
I didnt say we need to spend trillions. Giving the dollar figure we spend on social programs is to show how consumed we are on socialism.

Ironic you say SpaceX because thats the whole point. Look at what a well focused talented group of people have been able to achieve in such a short time frame. Imagine if we kept that focus and talent post Apollo.

We didn't have it then. We threw money at the problem and it cost a staggering amount. Nixon was right to cancel the Mars program.

Kiroy · Aug 28, 2021

BrutulTM said:
And not many machines last more than 10 years without significant repairs. Even if you take 10 spares of every moving part on the ship you're probably going to be out of them in a couple hundred years unless you come across intergalactic pep boys along the way.

out of all the issues for intergalactic flight, this is probably the easiest problem to solve with 3d printing

Pharazon2 · Aug 28, 2021

Cybsled said:
Sure, we could. But the feasible part comes into play. Humans usually need a reason to invest in something like that. Basically "how does this benefit me?"

Short of stress factors causing it (ie, solar system is going to get rekt / we ran out of resources in the solar system), you aren't going to find that drive.

Musk isn't trying to go to Mars to make money, he just wants to go. SpaceX might turn into one of the most valuable companies on the planet in time, but there's no way that was his driving motivation when he got into it. Unless he's putting on an act, he's going to be happy if he can take a one way trip to Mars for his end.

If he were alive a couple hundred years from now, he'd probably be happy to try to put together some sort of expedition with the goal of colonizing a planet in a different solar system, even if that means just sending robots and embryos. There will always be people like him with enough curiosity, drive, and the means to go where no man has gone before..

Captain Suave · Aug 28, 2021

Pharazon2 said:
Musk isn't trying to go to Mars to make money, he just wants to go. SpaceX might turn into one of the most valuable companies on the planet in time, but there's no way that was his driving motivation when he got into it. Unless he's putting on an act, he's going to be happy if he can take a one way trip to Mars for his end.

If he were alive a couple hundred years from now, he'd probably be happy to try to put together some sort of expedition with the goal of colonizing a planet in a different solar system, even if that means just sending robots and embryos. There will always be people like him with enough curiosity, drive, and the means to go where no man has gone before..

If there's one place where Musk is unimpeachable, it's dreaming big. He's on record saying that all his endeavors are focused on addressing the biggest problems humanity has: climate (Tesla), education/economy (improve global connectivity with StarLink), and species-level environmental redundancy (colonize Mars). My cousin at SpaceX confirms that this is a shared goal set in company culture, and most people see the near-Earth commercial activity as a primarily necessary step in sustainably funding Mars missions.

Aaron · Aug 28, 2021

Back during the 90s Newt Gingrich was lobbying for Congress to create a form of a "prize" system for private companies to compete towards unlocking certain space based goals. The prize money increased based on the increase in difficulty. Would have created a good incentive for private enterprise to find interesting solutions to problems we face. They should look into doing it now.

Cybsled · Aug 28, 2021

Aaron said:
Back during the 90s Newt Gingrich was lobbying for Congress to create a form of a "prize" system for private companies to compete towards unlocking certain space based goals. The prize money increased based on the increase in difficulty. Would have created a good incentive for private enterprise to find interesting solutions to problems we face. They should look into doing it now.

Only way it would ever be a thing is if were rolled into what DARPA already does every now and again with prizes for solving a tech issue.

The Astronomy Thread

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