The Elder Scrolls Online

Tuco_sl said:

Skyrim also had an incredible amount of (justified) hype behind it. Maybe I'm in a jaded information bubble but I've seen exactly zero hype-filled previews of TESO

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Hype or not, it's an Elder Scrolls game. There will be giant cutout ads in every GameStop, Walmart and Target in the world for this shit.

It's gonna release to reviews of anywhere from 7/10 (destructoid) to an 8.5/10 (EuroGamer) because review sites suck, and that will be enough to push box sales. Watch.

Remit_sl said:

Assuming they actually profit $45 per box copy (60-shipping-distribution charges-small store cut of about 2-3%), they need more like 2.8million boxes. They will not sell that unless something serious changes with the game and the general perception of the game.

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I think you are totally underestimating how wide this game's target market/appeal is, while simultaneously overestimating the number of people who have been actively following its development.

But, we'll see.

Quaid_sl said:

Hype or not, it's an Elder Scrolls game. There will be giant cutout ads in every GameStop, Walmart and Target in the world for this shit.

It's gonna release to reviews of anywhere from 7/10 (destructoid) to an 8.5/10 (EuroGamer) because review sites suck, and that will be enough to push box sales. Watch.

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No. This game sucks too badly for that scenario to play out. If the game were at least SWTOR-level bad it'd be one thing, but the negative hype train for this game is going to be ridiculously strong. Anyone who remotely follows gaming is going to be well aware of how much the game sucks by April.

Tuco_sl said:

Sounds like you want to make an avatar bet to me!

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Oooooh that might be fun - parameters?

Tuco_sl said:

I don't know =( I haven't been following the game closely enough.

I'd say first week # of buys would be good. You said 2 million so let's use that. I bet you a one month avatar bet that it doesn't cross 2 million in the first week.

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Done, good sir.

BTW IGN gave SWTOR 9/10 2 weeks after release.

Teso will pay off all the appropriate gaming sites and magazines and will be nominated for MMO of the year and a whole bunch of other bullshit. Most people don't read message boards like these and will get blindsided by the sucktitude. I don't think them selling 3 to 6 mill in several months is that far fetched.

Dont get me wrong, there are a lot of idiots. I am sure it will sell 1.5million in week 1. However, there is no way they will "make it all back in the first week". I say 3 million at the end of month 1, which puts them at a loss going in to month 2 after launch/advertising/misc expenses. After that, tanks harder than AoC.

Remit_sl said:

Dont get me wrong, there are a lot of idiots. I am sure it will sell 1.5million in week 1. However, there is no way they will "make it all back in the first week". I say 3 million at the end of month 1, which puts them at a loss going in to month 2 after launch/advertising/misc expenses. After that, tanks harder than AoC.

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Really? You think an Elder Scrolls online game is going to perform the same as Guild Wars 2? I dunno... I expect quite a bit more. I hope I'm wrong... Well actually I hope I'm right because I am probably gonna get an avatar depicting Bob & Doug McKenzie in a 69 covered in Poutine if not.

Lots of you are stuck in the anti-hype bubble from this forum. It is ESO and coming out on consoles right? It is going to sell a fuckload of boxes.

Quaid_sl said:

I think you are totally underestimating how wide this game's target market/appeal is, while simultaneously overestimating the number of people who have been actively following its development.

But, we'll see.

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It will sell a crapton based on being Elder Scrolls alone...

Quaid_sl said:

Done, good sir.

BTW IGN gave SWTOR 9/10 2 weeks after release.

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Because SWTOR was actually entertaining up until you started to hit the mid 30's or so. For all the flaws that SWTOR had, it still had a reasonably ok 1-35 path. It's only when you had to face the game's MMO aspects that it really began to fall apart - it was fine as a single player game.

khalid_sl said:

Lots of you are stuck in the anti-hype bubble from this forum. It is ESO and coming out on consoles right? It is going to sell a fuckload of boxes.

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How does it feel being so delusional? There's no hype for TESO anywhere at this point. Lets look at a forum far larger than our own for reference:

Elder Scrolls Online Beta sign up - Page 9 - NeoGAF

NeoGAF can only manage a 9 page thread on TESO. The same forum I might add, that managed to make multiple thousand + page threads on a genuinely good game like FFXIV. You're out of your fucking mind if you think that this game is going to sell well on name alone.

ZProtoss_sl said:

Because SWTOR was actually entertaining up until you started to hit the mid 30's or so. For all the flaws that SWTOR had, it still had a reasonably ok 1-35 path. It's only when you had to face the game's MMO aspects that it really began to fall apart - it was fine as a single player game.

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I think many are going to say the exact same of TESO.

Quaid_sl said:

Really? You think an Elder Scrolls online game is going to perform the same as Guild Wars 2? I dunno... I expect quite a bit more. I hope I'm wrong... Well actually I hope I'm right because I am probably gonna get an avatar depicting Bob & Doug McKenzie in a 69 covered in Poutine if not.

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GuildWars 2 came out at a time when there was a huge demand for a new MMO, and also had hugely positive hype. Now you have PS4/XBone/new Wii U titles coming next year, MMO masses have went back to WoW, and huge endgame coming to FFXIV. Couple that with the fact that probably 70% of the MMO population has been burned badly in recent years and actually do a little more research, I find it hard to imagine this will sell well besides the 12y/o impulse buyers and diehard fans (and even most of them are informed).

3-4 years ago, this game would have sold 10million in the first month.

SWTOR, as maligned as it may be here, has a lot going for it. I more than got my moneys worth from the 3 months I played (to me "money's worth" is over 1 hour / dollar) and had a lot of fun. It's main flaw is after that initial few months it kind of runs out of steam.

The solid gameplay base (which is basically a 90% WoW clone) and enjoyable story makes it worth playing though I think. I wouldn't say the same thing about TESO.

Quaid_sl said:

I think many are going to say the exact same of TESO.

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I almost logged out on the run to "grab a weapon". This coming from a guy who actually played and enjoyed vanguard for 5 months.

Quaid_sl said:

I think many are going to say the exact same of TESO.

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Did you live in a cave prior to the release of SWTOR? SWTOR had shitloads of (mostly) positive hype going into its release. It wasn't anywhere close to FFXIV levels, but people were generally excited about the game. SWTOR's star faded very quickly after release, but at least it was fucking shining up until the release. TESO is practically the persona non grata of the MMO world 5 months before it's official release. The two games are in not comparable in the least.