The Fermi Paradox -- Where is everybody?

khorum

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Are you really saying that there's no difference between a multi-trillion year culture that's eventually killed by the expansion of space itself compared to a single-planet species vaporized by a meteor after a few hundred years?

No I've repeatedly said I don't necessarily agree that every advanced species accepts the inevitability of their destruction. There's absolutely a difference between a single-planet species that goes extinct and some advanced civilization that expands to exploit stellar energy---one goes extinct with the first planetary mass extinction event, and the other keeps trying to expand until they can find a way to survive the heat death of the universe.

The Aestivation Hypothesis isn't the first Fermi response that postulates some multi-trillion-year civilization that's sets out confront entropy at the end of time. In fact, while I'd bet on the Malthusian Trap as the most likely Great Filter, I really like how the Aestivation and Ancestor Simulation hypothesis work together.
 

Captain Suave

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If some sort of civilization-wide Surrender to Entropy is what's kept the Milky Way from being stuffed full of intelligent life then that would be a logical answer to Fermi's question. Why wouldn't it?

I don't think we're actually disagreeing as much as you think we are, and perhaps that's my fault for making nit-picky points that muddy the discussion boundaries. Let me try again.

There is some physics-based limit to the amount of energy that a civilization can control. This is different from the practical amount they WILL control, which is driven by any number of other factors. There are several cases:

1a) That limit is >K1 and our knowledge of possible intelligences and physics is sufficient to know something about K1+ civilizations. The limit of energy acquisition is NOT the Great Filter, since we should observe the results. The fact that we don't see Dyson Spheres everywhere means that some other factor is the Great Filter.

1b) That limit is >K1 and we don't know or misunderstand something important about possible intelligences and physics. The whole Fermi Paradox is badly conceived because we are overconfident monkeys making too many assumptions.

2) That limit is <=K1 and the physical limit of energy acquisition is the Great Filter. We'd better make the best of what we have now.

Most likely we are dealing with case 1x). I don't think it's a given that we are in 1a) and not 1b).

Stepping outside of Fermi's Paradox a bit, even a hypothetical K3+ civilization will eventually be forced to "surrender to entropy". That is the outcome of a survival-maximizing game. I don't think it's very useful use equate all "surrender to entropy" cases as "failure", since that's the BEST-CASE scenario. I agree that surrendering to entropy at <=K1 when it's otherwise possible to expand is a losing play. You're free to find that a trivial or distracting distinction.
 
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Lunis

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I think the probability that evolution produces intelligent life is the much bigger unknown. We have one data point, and we're only here b/c an asteroid hit the earth 65 million years ago and wiped out the dinosaurs. There could be plenty of planets with life... but what % have intelligent life? 1 in a hundred? thousand? million? billion? Who the fuck knows.
 
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pharmakos

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Entropy kills everything eventually no matter what scale you achieve.


So what tho man? We're not to the end of time yet. We're talking about the state of the universe as we see it *right now*

(Edit -- accidentally left an old quote box in the reply window, don't mind the weird notification khorum)
 
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pharmakos

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I think the probability that evolution produces intelligent life is the much bigger unknown. We have one data point, and we're only here b/c an asteroid hit the earth 65 million years ago and wiped out the dinosaurs. There could be plenty of planets with life... but what % have intelligent life? 1 in a hundred? thousand? million? billion? Who the fuck knows.

And of course, obviously, it could just be us. 1 in an infinity. What a scary, sobering thought. Chills me every time I fathom it, even all these years after I first thought it as a kid and laid awake in bed all night.
 
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khorum

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I don't think we're actually disagreeing as much as you think we are, and perhaps that's my fault for making nick-picky points that muddy the discussion boundaries. Let me try again.

There is some physics-based limit to the amount of energy that a civilization can control. This is different from the practical amount they WILL control, which is driven by any number of other factors. There are several cases:

1a) That limit is >K1 and our knowledge of possible intelligences and physics is sufficient to know something about advanced civilizations. The limit of energy acquisition is NOT the Great Filter, since we should observe the results. The fact that we don't see Dyson Spheres everywhere means that some other factor is the Great Filter.

1b) That limit is >K1 and we don't know or misunderstand something important about possible intelligences and physics. The whole Fermi Paradox is badly conceived because we are overconfident monkeys making too many assumptions.

2) If the limit is <=K1, then physical limit of energy acquisition is the Great Filter. We'd better make the best of what we have now.

Most likely we are dealing with case 1x), since if you hand-wave away a few millennia of engineering there's no reason we know of that those things should be impossible. I don't think it's a given that we are in 1a) and not 1b).

Stepping outside of Fermi's Paradox a bit, even a hypothetical K3+ civilization will eventually be forced to "surrender to entropy". That is the outcome of a survival-maximizing game. I don't think it's very useful to define "surrender to entropy" as "failure", since that's the BEST-CASE scenario. You're free to find that a trivial or distracting redefinition.

I’ve kept telling you that civilizations falling into the Malthusian Trap is indistinguishable from your proposition that some planets simply fail or refuse to transition to higher tiers on the Kardashev scale.YOUR objection seems entirely focused on regarding this barrier as “failure”, when in fact they’d be as extinct as all the vertebrates that died during the Permian die-off.

If the Great Filter is before K1 we NEED NOT understand more about physical law than we already do because any civilization at that level would likewise contend with the same physical considerations WE DO. They wouldn’t have warp drives and they have the same energy constraints. We need not speculate about their biology or their psychology because if they don’t abide to the same thermoeconomic resource demands they’d be extinct.

On a similar vein, if the filter is after K2, there’s no reason to assume that Dyson’s, von Neumann’s and Kardashev’s ideas are wrong because even if K2 civilizations discover more efficient implementations, the physical reconfiguration of their planets for maximal exploitation would still be efficient for them at a similar point as it would be for us—and we would be able to observe them.

Folks poop on that with the quip that we’re primitives trying to comprehend space travel.... but that’s unfair. The rocket was invented in 969AD and while it took us a millennium to refine it, if he had seen it, the chinaman who invented it would recognize the Saturn V EXACTLY for what it was and discern its purpose by its size.

Similarly, while it’s certain they could refine it, SOME Kardashev-2 civilizations would have had to reconfigure their home system for maximal exploitation at some point and we’d be able to see millions of them.
 

Captain Suave

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At this point I have to believe you're just not reading very carefully. I didn't say the things you're disagreeing with.

If the Great Filter is before K1 we NEED NOT understand more about physical law than we already do

Correct, at least as far as resolving the FP, and I never said otherwise. That's 1a/2.

On a similar vein, if the filter is after K2, there’s no reason to assume that our Dyson, von Neumann and Kardashev’s ideas are wrong because even if K2 civilizations discover more efficient implementations, the physical reconfiguration of their planets for maximal exploitation would still be efficient for them at a similar point as it would be for us—and we would be able to observe them.

Unless there's some really important new physics we're missing (dark matter tech or something else that doesn't interact with the universe in ways that we're looking for now), which is the difference between 1a, where I agree with you, and 1b.
 
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khorum

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At this point I have to believe you're just not reading very carefully. I didn't say the things you're disagreeing with.

LMFAO you agree that civilizations that give up and halt expansion and exploitation for any reason would qualify as failures then?

I‘ve been addressing that as the only distinction between your assessment of the Malthusian answer and mine.

What did I “misread” then? Do you just want to discuss the “nobility” of accepting our fate and the harshness of a mindset that pursues infinite exploitation?
 

Captain Suave

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What did I “misread” then?

Stepping outside of Fermi's Paradox a bit, even a hypothetical K3+ civilization will eventually be forced to "surrender to entropy". That is the outcome of a survival-maximizing game. I don't think it's very useful use equate all "surrender to entropy" cases as "failure", since that's the BEST-CASE scenario. I agree that surrendering to entropy when it's otherwise possible to expand is a losing play. You're free to find that a trivial or distracting distinction.

The point being, if your "failure" includes the best-case outcome I don't think that's a great definition. That's all.
 
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khorum

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Surrender is the best case scenario.

Well I definite told you I don’t necessarily agree that’s the best case. SURVIVAL would be the best case.

That gets into some speculative stuff into the far future but I think the basic premise is sound: between now and the heat death of the universe enough smart people will emerge who aren’t too fond of extinction and continue ways to elude it.
 

Captain Suave

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Well I definite told you I don’t necessarily agree that’s the best case. SURVIVAL would be the best case.

That gets into some speculative stuff into the far future but I think the basic premise is sound: between now and the heat death of the universe enough smart people will emerge who aren’t too fond of extinction and continue ways to elude it.

If we're bringing in unknown physics in this way, then fine. I made my claim under the assumption that our current physics adequately describes the future.

I'd just add that if it turns out physics can allow us to survive the expansion of space evaporating atoms, then whatever that tech is might be available now in a way that renders K1+ civilizations invisible to us. That's basically my case 1b.
 

khorum

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The point being, if your "failure" includes the best-case outcome I don't think that's a great definition. That's all.
What would you define a managed decline into inevitable extinction then?

You were doing more than enough nitpicking for all of us so I didn’t wanna doink on your parade but isn’t it a little weird that you’re so open to entertain the possibility that advanced civilizations would bypass the physical efficiencies of building Dyson swarms and shkadov engines but you somehow think they wouldn’t expend significant effort trying to survive the big rip or the heat death of the universe?
 

Captain Suave

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What would you define a managed decline into inevitable extinction then?

Optimality subject to constraint, if your limit is fundamental physics.

isn’t it a little weird that you’re so open to entertain the possibility that advanced civilizations would bypass the physical efficiencies of building Dyson swarms and shkadov engines but you somehow think they wouldn’t expend significant effort trying to survive the big rip or the heat death of the universe?

I was trying to talk about the conclusions that derive from different assumption sets (and, in retrospect, doing a poor job of distinguishing them). My "entertaining" is the acknowledgement of logical possibility, not and expression of how likely I think it is. In the case where future-magic tech is available all bets are off and the fact that we can't see anyone now doesn't mean much. If it isn't, then yeah, the standard lines around the FP apply.

If we're going for the bare metal version of what I think practically, I really hope intelligence is the Great Filter because otherwise the universe is scary, and either way physics has it out for us and we're all dying in 10^x years no matter what.
 
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khorum

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Optimality subject to constraint, if your limit is fundamental physics.



I was trying to talk about the conclusions that derive from different assumption sets (and, in retrospect, doing a poor job of distinguishing them). In the case where future-magic tech is available all bets are off and the fact that we can't see anyone now doesn't mean much. If it isn't, then yeah, the standard lines around the FP apply.

There needn’t be any magic tech Involved. Without ANY understanding of physics whatsoever, the BEST CASE SCENARIO for any organism would be survival under any circumstances, not willful embrace of extinction.

You can admire the fortitude with which anything faces its extinction, but it’s still extinct.

The “magic tech” barely comes in with your assumption that all future civilizations would succumb to entropy. What that really says is that extinction is the ONLY scenario, not the best one. And even then there’s as much room to speculate against it as for it.
 

Captain Suave

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There needn’t be any magic tech Involved. Without ANY understanding of physics whatsoever, the BEST CASE SCENARIO for any organism would be survival under any circumstances

I'd argue that an outcome that can't happen should be excluded. When I say "best case" it's "the best case that can actually happen given our current understanding of matter-based life and physics", not "a better outcome even though it's impossible" or "a better outcome that's contingent on different physics".

Can you outline any proposed case that doesn't involve unknown physics where an organism survives indefinitely (say, past the Big Rip)?
 
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khorum

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Can you outline any case that doesn't involve unknown physics where an organism survives indefinitely (say, past the Big Rip)?

When I say "best case" it's "the best case that can actually happen given our current understanding of matter-based life and physics", not "the best case I can imagine with different physics".

They aestivate until the universe is much cooler.

Then they'd encase all the remaining supermassive black holes with shkadov engines and merge them into the last black hole in the universe. Today, black holes about the size of earth or larger aren't evaporating because the pressure from the cosmic background radiation is pushing enough pressure to keep them stable. Far enough into the future all the black holes will have will begun to evaporate, emitting massive energy as hawking radiation. Even without unknown physics, they'd basically become the most energetic things ever.

Once merged they'd encase the concentrated mass of all the black holes left in the universe in one dyson shell and use it to power a computing substrate so powerful that entities living in it would experience subjective time so vastly stretched out that nanoseconds in realtime would be experienced into millenia.

They could use that time find a way to survive a big crunch and emerge into a new universe or some other way to keep surviving. At some point they'd simulate their distant ancestors just in case some lost JENIUS posted the solution in an MMO forum.
 
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Quaid

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Somehow this has gone from the best thread on the forum to the worst.

Well, maybe it’s a tie with the a_skeleton_03 dick thread.
 
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khorum

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Somehow this has gone from the best thread on the forum to the worst.

Well, maybe it’s a tie with the a_skeleton_03 dick thread.
You should report the asshole that forced you to read it then.
 
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