The Fermi Paradox -- Where is everybody?

pharmakos · Jun 16, 2020

There could be more than 30 alien civilizations in the Milky Way, shocking study says

A new study from researchers at the U.K.'s University of Nottingham suggests there are 36 planets in the Milky Way galaxy, a calculation the experts have dubbed "the Astrobiological Copernican Limit."

www.foxnews.com

basically anyone in 2020 claiming a firm answer to the Drake Equation is just full of shit trying to generate clicks / research grant money, right?

Ukerric · Jun 16, 2020

It's more of the Drake Inequation at this point (this total product must be lower than X...) based on observable non-civilizations.

pharmakos · Jun 16, 2020

yeah, having pondered and read on this for most of my life, i think the most likely answer to the paradox is that we're the first / the only. and Nick Bostrom is probably right about that being the best possible news for the human race, even if it is the most boring.

https://www.nickbostrom.com/extraterrestrial.pdf

https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/fermi.pdf

Brad2770 · Jun 16, 2020

pharmakos said:
yeah, having pondered and read on this for most of my life, i think the most likely answer to the paradox is that we're the first / the only. and Nick Bostrom is probably right about that being the best possible news for the human race, even if it is the most boring.

https://www.nickbostrom.com/extraterrestrial.pdf

https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/fermi.pdf

That’s what I think too. The universe is still young enough that we could very well be the first.

I also think that God could be real, if we are the one and only.

Ukerric · Jun 16, 2020

pharmakos said:
yeah, having pondered and read on this for most of my life, i think the most likely answer to the paradox is that we're the first / the only. and Nick Bostrom is probably right about that being the best possible news for the human race, even if it is the most boring.

https://www.nickbostrom.com/extraterrestrial.pdf

https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/fermi.pdf

That or the filter is ahead... and no civilization survives beyond a few centuries of the existence of Internet.

Ukerric · Jun 16, 2020

Brad2770 said:
That’s what I think too. The universe is still young enough that we could very well be the first.

That's one of the best stories from David Brin: The Crystal Spheres

(in which we're sixth, and the fifth came out dozens of million years ago and left the universe because they were bored waiting for us to arise)

Punko · Jun 16, 2020

pharmakos said:
yeah, having pondered and read on this for most of my life, i think the most likely answer to the paradox is that we're the first / the only. and Nick Bostrom is probably right about that being the best possible news for the human race, even if it is the most boring.

That is statistically unlikely. Lets not disregard the fact that any civilization that could travel here without us having any clue, probably wouldn't need our ape-shit-tech.

I don't think there is much to say beyond that, given that we are clueless on the topic.

pharmakos · Jun 16, 2020

Punko said:
That is statistically unlikely.

based on what sample data?

Ravishing · Jun 16, 2020

It's more likely that life comes & goes at different times and it's unlikely 2 intelligent lifeforms are arisen at the same time & within close enough proximity to recognize each other.

Just looking at Earth, the Dinosaurs roamed the Earth for 165M years or so and it took 60M years after for "intelligent life" (humans) to rise. And if we consider the earth is ~4.5B years old, our existence is too short to be relevant. Any communications we could have intercepted may have passed us by millions or billions of years ago.

It's nice to think we're the first & only though, but it seems very unlikely.

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 16, 2020

Brad2770 said:
That’s what I think too. The universe is still young enough that we could very well be the first.

I also think that God could be real, if we are the one and only.

So that would make the middle easterners the first God civilization. No wonder they hate us so much. We western New God's usurped their place as ruling God's of the Universe.

Grim1 · Jun 16, 2020

pharmakos said:
yeah, having pondered and read on this for most of my life, i think the most likely answer to the paradox is that we're the first / the only. and Nick Bostrom is probably right about that being the best possible news for the human race, even if it is the most boring.

https://www.nickbostrom.com/extraterrestrial.pdf

https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/fermi.pdf

Billions of galaxies in a universe 13 billion years old. My guess is that we might be the only tech civ in this galaxy at this moment.

But even if only 1 in 100 galaxies has a tech civ, there could still be millions of tech civs around but just too far away to detect.

Still too many unknowns in the Drake equation. It's all a guess.

Brad2770 · Jun 16, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
So that would make the middle easterners the first God civilization. No wonder they hate us so much. We western New God's usurped their place as ruling God's of the Universe.

I don’t believe in God, but if we were able to find out we were the Galaxy/Universe first sentient/intelligent creatures, it would make believing in him again possible.

pharmakos · Jun 16, 2020

even with just 1960s rocket tech, we could have spread to the whole galaxy in like a million years? i forget the exact number.

tho perhaps there is something not yet understood in that laws of physics preventing meaningful interstellar travel that we are not yet aware of, that could be the issue

Merrith · Jun 16, 2020

pharmakos said:
even with just 1960s rocket tech, we could have spread to the whole galaxy in like a million years? i forget the exact number.

tho perhaps there is something not yet understood in that laws of physics preventing meaningful interstellar travel that we are not yet aware of, that could be the issue

A million? We'd have to get up to what, like .2c?

Sanrith Descartes · Jun 16, 2020

Brad2770 said:
I don’t believe in God, but if we were able to find out we were the Galaxy/Universe first sentient/intelligent creatures, it would make believing in him again possible.

It sure would give new meaning to American Exceptionalism.

Mist · Jun 16, 2020

Only 4% of the universe is observable to us with our current science. The rest is shit we literally can't yet comprehend, but might soon.

What if that 4% of the universe isn't all that interesting? It's all basically just the same gases and rocks spammed over and over again?

What if within a few hundred years of discovering astrophysics, relativity, quantum mechanics, instead of fighting against the speed of light to try to explore their galaxy, civilizations discover far more interesting areas and avenues of exploration than what we currently can observe?

tl;dr What if it turns out to be "easier" to explore dark matter realms or alternate dimensions, alternate universes, etc, than it is to travel around in normal boring old spacetime?

If this seems insane, think that 500 years ago, the idea of exploring space was insane. Maybe 500 years from now the idea of exploring dark matter, alternate universes, anti-matter realms, turns out to be not that hard? If those realms were more interesting, would we bother trying to travel to a bunch of extremely faraway rocks?

Brad2770 · Jun 16, 2020

Mist said:
Only 4% of the universe is observable to us with our current science. The rest is shit we literally can't yet comprehend, but might soon.

What if that 4% of the universe isn't all that interesting? It's all basically just the same gases and rocks spammed over and over again?

What if within a few hundred years of discovering astrophysics, relativity, quantum mechanics, instead of fighting against the speed of light to try to explore their galaxy, civilizations discover far more interesting areas and avenues of exploration than what we currently can observe?

tl;dr What if it turns out to be "easier" to explore dark matter realms or alternate dimensions, alternate universes, etc, than it is to travel around in normal boring old spacetime?

If this seems insane, think that 500 years ago, the idea of exploring space was insane. Maybe 500 years from now the idea of exploring dark matter, alternate universes, anti-matter realms, turns out to be not that hard? If those realms were more interesting, would we bother trying to travel to a bunch of extremely faraway rocks?

I’ll be your Morty.

Sadre Spinegnawer · Jun 17, 2020

pharmakos said:
based on what sample data?

It's not about "life" -- it's about planets. If, all we could find were stars, and it would seem we are the only star with planets as near as we can tell, then yes, we have one data point - us.

But we have how many data points now of stars with planetary systems? Those are the data points. In the entire "life" question, the universal assumption is, "First of all, ya gotta have a planet." Well, there are .... likely billions and billions of them. Planets can give rise to life, and given enough of them, my money is on a lot of life. The problem is lots of shit happens. But, we got the stars with planets with tons of time, so I am sure life comes and goes all the time.

edit: and the punchline is, it is impossible for life to travel the cosmic distances involved to even visit near star systems. The speed of light is the ultimate banhammer on those prospects.

pharmakos · Jun 17, 2020

Merrith said:
A million? We'd have to get up to what, like .2c?

I forget the numbers exactly but it's in the 7-9ish figures ballpark for sure, been discussed in this thread before I'm just too lazy to find a link.

Mind, this is talking 1960s rocket tech propelling von Neumann probes, not actual lifeforms, so yeah I think? ~0.1c was the ballpark figure they were talking about? Probably should quit shitting out numbers at this point without actually doble checking my chemobrain (used to be ace at this shit

).

The thought experiment was of course thought up in the ~1960s and specifically was using the rocket tech of the day to make the simple point that if Present Year tech could do it then -- WHERE IS EVERYBODY? It wasn't thought up in the 90s but using ~60s tech for some arbitrary reason.

pharmakos · Jun 17, 2020

Sadre Spinegnawer said:
It's not about "life" -- it's about planets. If, all we could find were stars, and it would seem we are the only star with planets as near as we can tell, then yes, we have one data point - us.

But we have how many data points now of stars with planetary systems? Those are the data points. In the entire "life" question, the universal assumption is, "First of all, ya gotta have a planet." Well, there are .... likely billions and billions of them. Planets can give rise to life, and given enough of them, my money is on a lot of life. The problem is lots of shit happens. But, we got the stars with planets with tons of time, so I am sure life comes and goes all the time.

edit: and the punchline is, it is impossible for life to travel the cosmic distances involved to even visit near star systems. The speed of light is the ultimate banhammer on those prospects.

And here we have someone who has written a lot but hasn't done the basic reading.

Yes interesting points from Chapter 1 bro

(For those just dropping in, Sadre is claiming to be able to shoot from the hip and know better than great minds like Nick Bostrom about how likely it is that we're alone)

(P.s. Sadre dude I even posted the links for what you're arguing against, go read those before I say another word to you on the subject lol)

The Fermi Paradox -- Where is everybody?

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