Fadaar
That guy
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The Mandalorian & Grogu (2026)
- Thread starter Bandwagon
- Start date
Wombat
Blackwing Lair Raider
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It doesn't come out in the US until May 22nd.
The usual box office projection model is based on people buying their tickets early, with some wiggle room based on genre (big action movies tend to have bigger presales than art house equivalents, because only one of those could potentially sell out every showing for the weekend).
Now, I would argue whether this should really be modeled as an action movie or as a kids movie - and note there's very little in terms of kid movie competition until Disney's own Toy Story 5 four weekends later (obviously Disney would move their own movie if they were worried about self-cannibalization).
I think it'll do mediocrely but not disastrously, and everyone (serious) will punt on Star Wars' survival until we get Starfighter numbers next year. Youtube will of course have a field day.
The usual box office projection model is based on people buying their tickets early, with some wiggle room based on genre (big action movies tend to have bigger presales than art house equivalents, because only one of those could potentially sell out every showing for the weekend).
Now, I would argue whether this should really be modeled as an action movie or as a kids movie - and note there's very little in terms of kid movie competition until Disney's own Toy Story 5 four weekends later (obviously Disney would move their own movie if they were worried about self-cannibalization).
I think it'll do mediocrely but not disastrously, and everyone (serious) will punt on Star Wars' survival until we get Starfighter numbers next year. Youtube will of course have a field day.