Fadaar
That guy
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The Mandalorian & Grogu (2026)
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Wombat
Blackwing Lair Raider
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It doesn't come out in the US until May 22nd.
The usual box office projection model is based on people buying their tickets early, with some wiggle room based on genre (big action movies tend to have bigger presales than art house equivalents, because only one of those could potentially sell out every showing for the weekend).
Now, I would argue whether this should really be modeled as an action movie or as a kids movie - and note there's very little in terms of kid movie competition until Disney's own Toy Story 5 four weekends later (obviously Disney would move their own movie if they were worried about self-cannibalization).
I think it'll do mediocrely but not disastrously, and everyone (serious) will punt on Star Wars' survival until we get Starfighter numbers next year. Youtube will of course have a field day.
The usual box office projection model is based on people buying their tickets early, with some wiggle room based on genre (big action movies tend to have bigger presales than art house equivalents, because only one of those could potentially sell out every showing for the weekend).
Now, I would argue whether this should really be modeled as an action movie or as a kids movie - and note there's very little in terms of kid movie competition until Disney's own Toy Story 5 four weekends later (obviously Disney would move their own movie if they were worried about self-cannibalization).
I think it'll do mediocrely but not disastrously, and everyone (serious) will punt on Star Wars' survival until we get Starfighter numbers next year. Youtube will of course have a field day.
Siliconemelons
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Malakriss
Avatar of War Slayer
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The year before Solo had Pirates: Dead Men Tell No Tales with $62M/78M weekend but 78% international split at final numbers. Stars War only tends to pull ~50% international so it is unlikely to do more than a half billion unless quality is much higher.
Wombat
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I would hesitate to compare any number from The Before Times (before covid, streaming, and strikes) with modern releases.
In your specific case, it looks like Pirates 5 made just about as much in China as it did in the US. That is very much not the current trend for China - their movie industry has become very protectionist, other than sometimes animated movies. And even with animated movies, Chinese box office returns are way down - Pirates 5 made over 20% of its total international take in China. But in 2026, Super Mario Galaxy has just made 4% of its international take from China, and Hoppers 11% - and those are the breakout US successes in China!
(Star Wars hasn't particularly done well in China either - while the Force Awakens did 11% of its international take in China, The Rise of Skywalker was down to less than 4% of its international take from China.)
In your specific case, it looks like Pirates 5 made just about as much in China as it did in the US. That is very much not the current trend for China - their movie industry has become very protectionist, other than sometimes animated movies. And even with animated movies, Chinese box office returns are way down - Pirates 5 made over 20% of its total international take in China. But in 2026, Super Mario Galaxy has just made 4% of its international take from China, and Hoppers 11% - and those are the breakout US successes in China!
(Star Wars hasn't particularly done well in China either - while the Force Awakens did 11% of its international take in China, The Rise of Skywalker was down to less than 4% of its international take from China.)
jayrebb
Ssraeszha Raider
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And Solo was the reason for the 7 year hiatus.
This or the Gosling movie will need serious legs to keep Star Wars on the silverscreen.