Yeah, I'm fine with 1 billion as the bet (or 1.02 is fine with me too, which to be clear is 1,020,000,000 -- did you typo that?). If you mean 1.2 billion, again, that's ridiculous, as it would be, by far, the #2 r-rated film globally of all time. The bet I wanted to make is against someone who thinks it will be a failure or underperformer, not the #2 r-rated film of all time.
The continued comparisons with Batman are still super dumb. No one ever thought it would bring in top PG-13 numbers, especially not Nolan or the executives. If they wanted that they would have forced it to be PG-13. That rating makes a monumental difference.
If rockstar made the second most successful grand strategy game of all time that made 3x its budget/marketing, it would not be a failure simply because they also made GTA6. Ratings/genre matters.