Weather

Alex said:

Do you follow that group for the lawls?

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No but I have a friend at NASA who loves( hates ) being trolled by them. He complains about it constantly.
I'm not sure but isn't Lumi a flat Earther? Hard to tell with him sometimes.

Not much change. Landfall still predicted in about 20 hours from this post as a Cat3
Surges and have changed a tad.
Sea Rim State Park to Intracoastal City including Sabine Lake and
Calcasieu Lake...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft
Port Bolivar to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
San Luis Pass to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake
Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Freeport to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft

Rain has increased slightly as well


Inland surge water simulation curently

Newest data shows Laura will now reach Cat 4 today prior to landfall.

Cameron and Lake Charles are going to get absolutely obliterated, like they always do when a storm decided to go up that way. Not going to be a good time for anyone between Lafayette and Galveston.

Grandmother right in the track of the storm. Wasn't really concerned when it was category 2. It's weathered those before. Not really worried with trees, up close to the house is all live oaks. But she'll be without power for no telling how long. Power to her house runs between the 2 lane road and the pine trees next to it. Had a straight line wind of 80mph in the 90's and was without power for a week. It wiped out portions of two national forest then, thousands of acres of downed pines.

49% of all oil rigs in the gulf are shut down and evacuated. Saing after the storm has come and gone a week to get them back into production. Lake Charles and Beaumont are heavy petrochemical towns obviously. Morgan City to be hit by some of it, largest heliport in the world there. 40+ pads supporting the rigs in the gulf.

Good thing oil is in low demand and Cushing OK is full on storage.

It was a optional evavuation notice for 400,000 people in Houston last night when it was still a predicted cat 2. No idea how many more after it's cat 4. I imagine I-10 packed up and crawing in both directions by now. Why people stick to the interstate no idea. Some friends in Katrina didn't make it 60 miles after 5 hours and turned around. I left town hours before landfall and took backroads from LA into MS then across north LA into East, TX. It added 45 minutes to my normal trip of 4.5 hours. I heard constantly on the radio about traffic was not moving at all going west to Houston or I-49 north even with contra flow going. I went under I-49 and the cops wouldn't even let you get on it when I went under it. It was a parking lot an hour south of Shreveport. Road I was on just kept on going as normal.

Pretty nuts at how quickly this storm ramped up once it got past Cuba.

It will strengthen a bit more, not sure it'll ever reach cat5. It's running out of time.
New surge data though


Johnson Bayou LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu
Lake...15-20 ft
Sea Rim State Park TX to Johnson Bayou LA including Sabine
Lake...10-15 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City LA...10-15 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12
ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Freeport TX to Port Bolivar including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurvepas...2-4 ft



Flooding map remains same as few posts above. It has speed which means more power/tree loss inland but less potential for extreme rain as it is simply moving too fast. Rather have a tree down/roof damage than living in a lake inland.

The whole thing shows on local radar with the news now. I'm sure it's going to be a powerful storm and they are talking about a bad storm surge. It just looks tiny compared to ones I've seen before that fill the gulf from west of Houston all the way over to Pensacola with ran. The eye looks 150 miles across.

Whole thing is just making me more adamant that I buy/build a house on stilts when we move to Florida.

The wind I don't feel like is a huge deal. As long as I can deal with storm surge, I think a house will survive.

Araxen said:

Pretty nuts at how quickly this storm ramped up once it got past Cuba.

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Haven't been to Winnie TX in forever. Very little actual "land" there. I went there to go goose hunting. South of I-10 through there is like the southern end of Calcasieu parish, water. The news was all over how few Calcasieu parish had for covid cases. It's nothing but water and a few duck camps I'm surprised they had one which is what they were at.

Gravel said:

Whole thing is just making me more adamant that I buy/build a house on stilts when we move to Florida.

The wind I don't feel like is a huge deal. As long as I can deal with storm surge, I think a house will survive.

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Modern building materials plus concrete advancements polymers and you can make a "normal" that is to say not a rock home, home able to withstand up to a cat 4/5 easily. It's always the water as once it is swept away well it's over.

Oldbased said:

Modern building materials plus concrete advancements polymers and you can make a "normal" that is to say not a rock home, home able to withstand up to a cat 4/5 easily. It's always the water as once it is swept away well it's over.

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That's my thinking. The stuff I see to "hurricane proof" a house, materials wise, seems pretty cheap and easy. But water? Not a whole lot to do about that.

And storm surge on the coast seems to be the biggest issue anyway. So build a house on stilts out of modern materials, and it seems like you're good to go.

Live storm chasers( green dots click for feeds )

Hurricane chasers

Twitch stream from Lake Charles/Ground level

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