A brain teasing probability puzzle

You mean that was awesome.

a_skeleton_03_sl said:

Now that was earned.

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It was awesome. Give Ary your avatar, he's earned that.

For Ary.

I believe that if Araysar was wrong then he wouldn't have been banned. Authority figures will only put forth this much effort to silence someone who is right.

khalid_sl said:

No point in talking about it. Get people to run the simulation that has been linked multiple times and see it for themselves. For most people, the more you talk about it the more they get confused. Conditional probability is just counter-intuitive to most people. Our brains are horrible at it.

http://www.grand-illusions.com/simulator/montysim.htm

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It's worse than that -

Recently, a few political scientists have begun to discover a human tendency deeply discouraging to anyone with faith in the power of information. It?s this: Facts don?t necessarily have the power to change our minds. In fact, quite the opposite. In a series of studies in 2005 and 2006, researchers at the University of Michigan found that when misinformed people, particularly political partisans, were exposed to corrected facts in news stories, they rarely changed their minds. In fact, they often became even more strongly set in their beliefs. Facts, they found, were not curing misinformation. Like an underpowered antibiotic, facts could actually make misinformation even stronger.

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People flat out just don't like to be wrong, and then shown that they are wrong.

The next probability question should be this... Q: If a brain teaser is posted on an interweb forum, what are the chances someone is going to get rustled? A: Bunches

As has been posted before the real situation is this:

You get to choose one of three boxes. One of the boxes has a prize, the other two have nothing. After making your initial choice, you are given the option to either keep the one box you chose, or trade it for the two boxes you didn't... That seems like a pretty easy choice right? Double your chances... or don't.

Except right before you make your choice a fucking wild retard appears and rips open one of the boxes you didn't initially choose. This retard is a savant and can tell with perfect accuracy if a box is empty or has something in it. He loves empty boxes and tears into them so he can make "snuggle nests" where he can nap with his pet rabbit head and coo softly to himself.

So there you are, still left with the exact same choice as before; keep the one box you chose, or trade it for the remaining unopened box and a cardboard chewing retard curled up in the remains of the other box.

Take the two boxes. Two is far better than one, even if one of them was ravaged by a gimp.

Tuco_sl said:

Pretty much. I rrp'd Araysar for his own good. Look at the upstanding citizen Merlin has become. One day Araysar can hope to reach the level of enlightenment that Merlin has.

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Math, how does it work? Yet another BS RRP. Comon, Tubro...

Izo I will trade Araysar's RRP for you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Voyce_sl said:

The contestant has a 1/3 chance of picking right
The host has a 2/3 chance of being left with the right one
You switch because the Host has a higher probability of having the right one
The confusion is you think it's a 50/50 because you have two choices during the second round.
It is a binary decision you're making, but the probability is not 50/50
remember you're box was based on a 1/3 decision
the Hosts' box was based on a 2/3 result, the probability that his box is right is higher than yours.
You have to apply a Probability weight from your original choice.

I think I did a good job of explaining this.

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Yes, that's a very good explanation.

Tuco_sl said:

Izo if you make a poll in the suggestions forum asking Araysar to be unbanned and it favors unbanning him after an hour I will unban Araysar

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I thought we went over how one best motivates and deals with intellects - especially the unpopular ones. The whip ain't the way.
Someone instruct me on the fine workings of making a poll, please?

Eyashusa_sl said:

Izo I will trade Araysar's RRP for you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Last time you made the same offer we found out you have no honor or integrity. Pathetic.

I propose that anytime Araysar gets infraction izo automatically gets double the points since he's in love so much.

1 thing thats also important to know for the question is who is the host and what race is the player. If its a brother playing and the host is Alec Trebec then u kno the brother ain't gettin a god damn thing because that man is a racist piece of shit.

foddon_sl said:

Yes, that's a very good explanation.

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Alright, how do I model the game show producer knowing this and rigging the results so that switching is always a loss?