Chukzombi
Millie's Staff Member
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i can see something like that happening to me or the other robot cars going 150mph cant stop in time when they detect my stopped car. nope nope nope
Autonomous Systems
- Thread starter Blakkheim
- Start date
Ukerric
Bearded Ape
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It's even better when the company that manages your car security fires one of its employees, and the pissed guy sits at the computer and starts disabling every single car in alphabetical order.
Ukerric
Bearded Ape
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And that's not a good thing, because:
1) Google is going to pass on the price of premiums to Joe Bob the buyer of the Google car
2) Joe Bob now has no say in how much premiums he has to pay
Ukerric
Bearded Ape
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Ukerric
Bearded Ape
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This, my friend, is where you may regret some of the laws from Europe notably the data privacy laws (which were much maligned in the old site in the ME thread, because Hitler).
In Europe, the above is illegal. Your insurance company is not allowed to collect that type of information, and if they manage to get that, it is illegal to act on it; the penalties being up to 4% of their worldwide income (not profit, income) and 5 years of prison for the CEO per judgement.
(there's a few things that insurances are legally allowed to collect and use for premium calculations; number of accidents and anything not related to the person itself, such as number of km driven per year, age of the car, home location, etc)
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khorum
Murder Apologist
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They must've made the robot too cute. Who WOULDNT follow Wall-E if he ran around trying to rescue everyone.
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Ukerric
Bearded Ape
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Eomer
Trakanon Raider
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Tuco
I got Tuco'd!
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This is a big problem in advanced research. You're trying to push grand ideas and get funding for them, but you don't have a real idea for what the timeline is going to be. Even research in private sector, bluechip companies like Ford this is important, because the executives and board control how much profit is invested into R&D. You can't tell them it won't be available for a decade and you can't tell them you don't know. You're also aligned with more constrained systems. Ex:
Ford might have a new transmission they'll target for 2019 F-150s and similar vehicles. They have an entire program dedicated to this, with many teams of people working for many years to put it together. The 2019 date can change, but generally it doesn't. Projects like these are the meat and potatoes of Ford's engineering work.
Compare this to what their autonomy systems are doing. I don't think they've targeted any specific model years, but they are working toward a big ride-sharing project. I haven't seen any details on what the constraints of that ride sharing project will be, but I would bet the real constraints will be defined by the level of success and how rigorously they can test it. If they still have massive problems in snow, you'll see that constraint exist. If they figure it out, it won't.
Eomer
Trakanon Raider
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I was mostly kidding around calling Tuco a pussy. But it is a bit hypocritical to scoff at other people's predictions of when a certain level of autonomy will be commercially available, while at the same time refusing to give any of his own predictions.
"We can do XYZ by 2020!"
"Pfft, not a fucking chance. No way. Are you crazy? That's just not going to happen. Nu-uh. Totally unpossible."
"Oh, okay. Well when then?"
"It's impossible to say! Just not when you say!"
And it's not that I disagree or agree. I don't follow this shit to any level of detail. I just want to be able to jerk off while driving to the mountains, dammit.
"We can do XYZ by 2020!"
"Pfft, not a fucking chance. No way. Are you crazy? That's just not going to happen. Nu-uh. Totally unpossible."
"Oh, okay. Well when then?"
"It's impossible to say! Just not when you say!"
And it's not that I disagree or agree. I don't follow this shit to any level of detail. I just want to be able to jerk off while driving to the mountains, dammit.
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Haven't made it through the entire thread yet, but I'm amazed that some of you think it'll be 30-40+ years before this is a thing.
I'd bet by 2030 autonomous cars on the road will outnumber manually driven ones (normal cars will still outnumber autonomous ones, but likely not be on the actual roads).
I'm actually a little worried that my plans to spend 2 or 3 years living in an RV driving around North America might be derailed because the technology comes too fast.
Every time one of these futuristic type threads come around, I always think about that WaitButWhy AI Revolution article. Most of us can't comprehend how fast things will change because we're so focused on "how things usually happen." We forget how fast technology is actually changing things, and worse, underestimate how fast it will be in the future.
Edit: Okay, done. I also found it funny the people saying "Fuck that, I don't trust robots." I picture you like the people when airplanes were first introduced being like "What, are you insane? You want to get in that thing and fly around the air? Nope, I'll never fly in my lifetime!" or that lightbulbs were a pipe dream and you were fine with your candles.
I'd bet by 2030 autonomous cars on the road will outnumber manually driven ones (normal cars will still outnumber autonomous ones, but likely not be on the actual roads).
I'm actually a little worried that my plans to spend 2 or 3 years living in an RV driving around North America might be derailed because the technology comes too fast.
Every time one of these futuristic type threads come around, I always think about that WaitButWhy AI Revolution article. Most of us can't comprehend how fast things will change because we're so focused on "how things usually happen." We forget how fast technology is actually changing things, and worse, underestimate how fast it will be in the future.
Edit: Okay, done. I also found it funny the people saying "Fuck that, I don't trust robots." I picture you like the people when airplanes were first introduced being like "What, are you insane? You want to get in that thing and fly around the air? Nope, I'll never fly in my lifetime!" or that lightbulbs were a pipe dream and you were fine with your candles.
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Tuco
I got Tuco'd!
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So, it's likely that Ford will be able to do XYZ by 2021 (by XYZ, I mean have a limited release of highly constrained, driverless taxis. Japan will do it in 2020 for their olympic games). But once that occurs, deep market penetration of autonomy at that level won't happen quickly. And further autonomy won't come as easily.
There's a lot of problems that we have to solve to get from level 2/3 to level 5, and these aren't easy problems, so don't get pissed when it's 2030 and we haven't solved them.
Tuco
I got Tuco'd!
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Eomer
Trakanon Raider
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I'll be on your doorstep with a torch and pitchfork, bro. And I'll be especially pissed because it took me 30 hours of no jerking off to get there.
ZyyzYzzy
RIP USA
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If you are referring to TRLs here, then by definition that's not advanced development.
Blakkheim
Karazhan Raider
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Aldarion
Egg Nazi
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Speaking only for myself, its not that I dont trust the robots. I dont trust the unholy alliance of DMV and TSA that will be in charge of making the rules that programmers have to implement in those robots.
I also fundamentally cant wrap my head around people not liking to drive and prefering to do it themselves (WTF, when you're on family vacation do you let the wife drive or do you do it?)... but thats probably one of those "there are two kinds of people" things. As long as they dont outlaw self driving I'll be content (spoiler alert: they definitely will)
Cybsled
Naxxramas 1.0 Raider
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The biggest problem with driving is most people think they are good drivers, but they aren't. They're the fuckheads that pull into the middle lane of a highway going 40 miles an hour, the dipshit in a SUV who thinks because they are in a SUV they can drive 80 mph in a blizzard with heavy snow accumulation on the highway, the left lane bandit, the assholes that don't understand zipper merge, the people who slow to 50 MPH when they see a cop even though the speed limit is 65 and cops usually don't give a shit unless you are pushing 80, the "offisher i am only buzzed, not drunk", etc. This is why we have tens of thousands of people die or get maimed every year in MVA.
I totally get that some people like driving, but like the earlier analogy with horses, people will still be able to self-drive, but they will be the minority and restricted as to where they can do that.
I totally get that some people like driving, but like the earlier analogy with horses, people will still be able to self-drive, but they will be the minority and restricted as to where they can do that.