Bitcoins/Litecoins/Virtual Currencies

Haus

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I look at it this way... As an expansion on something I said earlier in this thread. I see essentially two crypto "worlds".

The heavies - BTC and ETH - If you invested on this during this run (say from the last point they were at/around $30k until now when they've dropped back) it makes little/no sense to sell out unless you're hoping to save some tiny amount of pain and buy back in at the bottom (which I am starting to think will be around $25k). Otherwise play the long game and simply forget about them for a year and come back.

Altcoins - This is a spectrum of everything else. I see some higher tier altcoins which I put under the same theory as the heavies (play the long game, they'll recover from this over time) like $ADA, $MATIC, etc (ones which have established timelines/teams, and usually some built out use cases..) Going down to shitcoins. At this point you should have dumped all your shitcoins.

Anything new, coming in... like what were previously monthly DCA buy ins for me, is all going into $DAI placed in a vault on AAVE to accumulate interest while I wait for a real macro bottom to put in. Full disclosure, since starting my tinkering in crypto I am currently down around 30%, but everything I have more than $1,000 in is a coin/token I see as having reliable "will come back" capabilities and I'm being patient. Long gone are the $OMGs of the world from my portfolio as I believe this current crash will kill off a lot of lesser meme/shitcoins.
 

Arden

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I look at it this way... As an expansion on something I said earlier in this thread. I see essentially two crypto "worlds".

The heavies - BTC and ETH - If you invested on this during this run (say from the last point they were at/around $30k until now when they've dropped back) it makes little/no sense to sell out unless you're hoping to save some tiny amount of pain and buy back in at the bottom (which I am starting to think will be around $25k). Otherwise play the long game and simply forget about them for a year and come back.

Altcoins - This is a spectrum of everything else. I see some higher tier altcoins which I put under the same theory as the heavies (play the long game, they'll recover from this over time) like $ADA, $MATIC, etc (ones which have established timelines/teams, and usually some built out use cases..) Going down to shitcoins. At this point you should have dumped all your shitcoins.

Anything new, coming in... like what were previously monthly DCA buy ins for me, is all going into $DAI placed in a vault on AAVE to accumulate interest while I wait for a real macro bottom to put in. Full disclosure, since starting my tinkering in crypto I am currently down around 30%, but everything I have more than $1,000 in is a coin/token I see as having reliable "will come back" capabilities and I'm being patient. Long gone are the $OMGs of the world from my portfolio as I believe this current crash will kill off a lot of lesser meme/shitcoins.

Agree with pretty much everything about this analysis. I've got some ETH and a couple of the top alts (Matic and vet) I'm holding them for the foreseeable future. For now I've just been accumulating dry powder and hoping that the slow bleed continues until we get down to the bottom, which I'm thinking is low 20s BTC and 1100 or so ETH.

If I'm correct and we get back down that low, I will scoop up as much as I can. If I'm wrong, and we go the other direction, I've got a substantial amount invested already so I won't feel left out.
 

James

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Haus

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So, looking at BTC, ETH, and MATIC this morning.... All are following the same pricing trending, which I suspected. But I'm wondering if I need to be interpreting MATIC differently due to volume? Thoughts?
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Haus

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Well, MATIC is up 32%, on the day compared to ETHs 10%, so yes?

Yes, but that alone tracks with it's past performance. Where is acts as an "amplifier" of whatever ETH does (ETH goes up a little, MATIC goes up a LOT... but the same happens on the downside most of the time) The thing I'm noting that's different is that MATIC volume has surged far more this time than it has in the past. Wondering what that might mean...
 

Arden

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Yes, but that alone tracks with it's past performance. Where is acts as an "amplifier" of whatever ETH does (ETH goes up a little, MATIC goes up a LOT... but the same happens on the downside most of the time) The thing I'm noting that's different is that MATIC volume has surged far more this time than it has in the past. Wondering what that might mean...
Wild guess here, but it could mean that whales are expecting an imminent surge in ETH transactions, which would drastically increase the cost of said transactions. MATIC of course being currently the best solution to expensive ETH transactions.

Probably related to the implementation of 1559 in a couple weeks. I haven't had time today to really dig around to see if there have been any other catalysts though.

Edit: had some time to fuck around on fintwit and it looks like Elon announced he's holding ETH. That may be part of it.
 
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Arden

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Furry

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They're probably finally realizing that all those customers of theirs who are doing an ACH to Coinbase or another exchange every month might actually not if they offered crypto. Galaxy Brain In Action!
A rich person investing in crypto through a fund or other public means is a stupid person.

Lots of stupid people, so they'll probably make money.
 

Arden

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They're probably finally realizing that all those customers of theirs who are doing an ACH to Coinbase or another exchange every month might actually not if they offered crypto. Galaxy Brain In Action!

Let's be honest, crypto is the wolf at the door for trad finance, especially banks like JPM. They are responsible for a ton of the FUD that gets thrown out about crypto for a reason. If crypto ultimately reaches its natural conclusion, banks that have failed to adapt will cease to exist. I think JPM is smart enough to see the writing on the wall, but if they are dragging their feet it should be pretty clear why. In their case I think they just want to buy time so that they can make a smooth transition from complete denial when it comes to crypto to molding it into a form they can manipulate and profit from.
 

Haus

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Let's be honest, crypto is the wolf at the door for trad finance, especially banks like JPM. They are responsible for a ton of the FUD that gets thrown out about crypto for a reason. If crypto ultimately reaches its natural conclusion, banks that have failed to adapt will cease to exist. I think JPM is smart enough to see the writing on the wall, but if they are dragging their feet it should be pretty clear why. In their case I think they just want to buy time so that they can make a smooth transition from complete denial when it comes to crypto to molding it into a form they can manipulate and profit from.
No Lies Detected.
I'm a few steps away from not needing any connection to a traditional bank :
  • A debit card which can be set to "each time I make a purchase/withdrawal cash out crypto holdings in this order (a.. b.. c.. etc..) to pay it" (pretty sure this already exists and I've just been too lazy to pursue it yet)
  • The ability to tell my employer that I would like to be paid in Crypto and an address to deposit it to.
  • Credit Card/Mortgage/Car payments accepted via Crypto, or alternatively the ability to take out loans natively in crypto and eliminate "cash" from that equation.
 
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James

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Overcollateralized loans are absolutely already a thing -- that's exactly what Aave does. Undercollateralized loans must be paid back within the same block currently.
 

Torrid

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  • A debit card which can be set to "each time I make a purchase/withdrawal cash out crypto holdings in this order (a.. b.. c.. etc..) to pay it" (pretty sure this already exists and I've just been too lazy to pursue it yet)
Premium Banking Powered by Crypto - LVL comes fairly close to that. There's still a checking account, but conversion to and from crypto is free
 
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Deathwing

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No Lies Detected.
I'm a few steps away from not needing any connection to a traditional bank :
  • A debit card which can be set to "each time I make a purchase/withdrawal cash out crypto holdings in this order (a.. b.. c.. etc..) to pay it" (pretty sure this already exists and I've just been too lazy to pursue it yet)
  • The ability to tell my employer that I would like to be paid in Crypto and an address to deposit it to.
  • Credit Card/Mortgage/Car payments accepted via Crypto, or alternatively the ability to take out loans natively in crypto and eliminate "cash" from that equation.

Is there discrete/functional/financial/whatever reason to distance yourself from a bank? Or is this mainly an ideological thing?
 

Furry

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Is there discrete/functional/financial/whatever reason to distance yourself from a bank? Or is this mainly an ideological thing?
I don't understand it. Trying to completely avoid banks yet doing all your crypto transactions tied to your name seems like a good way to summon the IRS extreme audit squad.
 

James

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In terms of functionality, blockchains are supremely effective settlement systems, there's no better way to send massive amounts of money across the globe right now. In terms of finances, crypto assets can be a store of value, a commodity, and/or yield bearing so it's really easy to put them to work and get some very good returns on it. Combine those two and it makes zero sense to pursue traditional finance opportunities, you never see people converting back to central banking once they dip into crypto for a very good reason.