verso literally says, "that is why we created the expeditions." he was also part of expedition 00. had been in luminare for the planning of it. he lies often. but that seems specifically true.
he also states, that initially it was "Search and rescue" which is also probably true. He likely didnt have the death wish immediately.
lune, sciel, gustave are probably not literally them. but they are part of it for sure. its possible EVERYONE is some mix and matching of the personality traits of the family, and people Aline knew. but, those specifically have too many traits that mirror the family to be a coincidence.
there is also the axon factor. which.. I've not put together yet. 3 of them. one is another version of verso, the masks, one is another version of the mother/aline/mama. do we fight the 3rd later in act 3?
the MASK one has some connection with sciel. she pulls off her mask. "i am a mask", and then rips off its mask. this is probably a reflection of her grief, and the mask she's wearing to pretend everything is fine. I have also not squared away, Esquie's memories of sciel. and not swimming.
while the mother/dancer vibes with lune. this one is even less clear as it picks her up, and she just face blasts it.. but in general lune being a near carbon copy of clea, physically and personality isn't an accident. the game even focuses on cleas barefoot to make a point of it. lune is just asian, and more friendly/caring.
I think alicia getting painted over does imply aline did also create the luminarians. as, if it was just the painted family, she should have been reborn as part of the painted family. but, no she was reborn as a painted luminarian. so she made at least one.. maybe she didn't originally create them, but now is remaking them.
clea put her "pets" in to help. this is the gestrals, and perhaps the other dudes, I guess. they do fight the nevrons. but like.. barely.. if their purpose is to help get the mother out, shouldn't they also be fighting the luminaries, and collecting chroma? maybe thats what the trading is for. haha. buying the chroma. gestrals did exist prior to the fracture. so, they were childhood creations of clea to play in her brothers world I suppose. and repurposed.
which I suppose is the luminare question. it existed prior to the fracture. so did they. aline moved in. created painted verso, and lived in old luminare for a while, before renoir came in to bring her out. the fracture occurred, shattering it.
does time continue without a painter actively at the canvas? are new lives born outside their influence? are ALL new lives directly the work of an active painter?
nevrons.. what was their purpose? they were definitely created by aline. created after she was sealed away to collect chroma? they did say appeared after the fracture. so yes.
The countdown. I do think they state its a warning/message. I think that was the explanation in hindsight. Horrible at messaging I guess.. so the countdown is just her messaging her growing weaker.
The general misunderstanding yes. was another of my issues with lumarians being morons. that was a giant assumption right from the beginning. (although, it could have been verso lying to them about it..) but, even within the game, no one is asking questions. talking to gestrals, nevrons, verso himself. that was one of my issues. there are tons of really great, natural character interactions, but no one is asking the real questions about the world and logistics of anything.
painted alicia complains about the lies and manipulation. perhaps we needed to see a bit more of that. much of the expeditions stupidity could be explained by painted verso, or either renoir walking among them, and giving them bad information to further their own goals.
It should be pointed out, the game does expressly make a point to show gustov, and the expeditions acting outside the context of the family. the suicide attempts, and the thoughts/feelings of expeditions. they have free will, agency, and are independent agents. they are not puppets.