Coronavirus Updates, Important Information, and Ancedotal Experience

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Captain Suave

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grumblethorn said:
I was reading that it wasn't contagious until symptoms and then only for roughly 8 days. With a rare few showing viral shedding double that time period. But not contagious before.
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Edit: Ok, being fair. That requires some nuance to be accurate. "Until symptoms" can include mild cough of a sort that wouldn't stop someone from going about their normal daily business. As a practical matter, that might as well be asymptomatic. There is some early research detailing patients shedding massive amounts of the virus while being truly symptom-free. Eight days of contagious time is pretty large - double that of the average flu strain.

It's an objectively terrible (for us) transmission profile.
 
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AngryGerbil

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grumblethorn said:
I was reading that it wasn't contagious until symptoms and then only for roughly 8 days. With a rare few showing viral shedding double that time period. But not contagious before.
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If you're right, then what we are doing now will outright stop this thing like SARS.

If you're wrong, then what we are doing now will slow down this thing, allowing the system to absorb it relatively unscathed.

I understand the concerns. It sucks that we have to shut so much stuff down. I know it sucks. I cannot deny the suck. But the argument from my end is that the suck we endure now by taking preventative measures is probably vastly less than the suck we will be forced to endure if we take NO preventative measures at all.
 
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TomServo

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I agree. Just looking for informed confirmation of shit I read away from the retarded furry's and tuco fear trolling.
 
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AngryGerbil

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Allow us all to follow the saga of Brahma Brahma .

I am actually very curious to know what happens here.

His instructor/professor came to class with 'only a cold' and now Brahma has symptoms.

If it turns out that his professor DID actually have only a cold and Brahma also has only a cold, then good. I sigh a sigh of relief, and our economy can begin to rebound.

If, however, it turns out that his professor has COVID and now Brahma has COVID... then won't we all be thankful that Brahma decided to quarantine himself? Why roll the dice here?

We already know (China, Iran, Italy) what it looks like when we give zero fucks. Let's try something else. Let's try giving a fuck and see how that turns out.
 
Harshaw

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AngryGerbil said:
Allow us all to follow the saga of Brahma Brahma .

I am actually very curious to know what happens here.

His instructor/professor came to class with 'only a cold' and now Brahma has symptoms.

If it turns out that his professor DID actually have only a cold and Brahma also has only a cold, then good. I sigh a sigh of relief, and our economy can begin to rebound.

If, however, it turns out that his professor has COVID and now Brahma has COVID... then won't we all be thankful that Brahma decided to quarantine himself? Why roll the dice here?

We already know (China, Iran, Italy) what it looks like when we give zero fucks. Let's try something else. Let's try giving a fuck and see how that turns out.
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If 95% of the planet wasn't comprised of people bereft of common sense we wouldn't need all these lockdowns and shit.
 
DickTrickle

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So far, every country with a significant outbreak has made serious temporary societal changes. Are we really to believe all countries are so stupid and foolish and panic-driven that they calculate wrong in choosing to mitigate the virus versus not hurting their economy now? If the virus is a slightly more serious flu, why wouldn't some country want to take advantage of that economically? It will be interesting to see if some country decides to take a stiff upper lip approach and have little restrictions, but it seems unlikely.
 
AngryGerbil

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DickTrickle said:
So far, every country with a significant outbreak has made serious temporary societal changes. Are we really to believe all countries are so stupid and foolish that they calculate wrong in choosing to mitigate the virus versus not hurting their economy now? If the virus is a slightly more serious flu, why wouldn't some country want to take advantage of that economically? It will be interesting to see if some country decides to take a stiff upper lip approach and have little restrictions, but it seems unlikely.
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The idea isn't to 'react' to a serious outbreak, because that would be an example of 'cure'.

The idea is to try to either prevent or at least SLOW a serious outbreak, which would be an example of 'prevention'.

One of them is worth an ounce. The other is worth a pound.

Yadda yadda....
 
DickTrickle

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AngryGerbil said:
The idea isn't to 'react' to a serious outbreak, because that would be an example of 'cure'.

The idea is to try to either prevent or at least SLOW a serious outbreak, which would be an example of 'prevention'.

One of them is worth an ounce. The other is worth a pound.

Yadda yadda....
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I understand that. I'm talking to the people who think what is being done now shouldn't be done, that it's all panic and overreaction, that the economic pain will be greater than the virus pain. I think it's silly that they think these countries are all basically making the wrong choices.
 
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AngryGerbil

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DickTrickle said:
I understand that. I'm talking to the people who think what is being done now shouldn't be done, that it's all panic and overreaction, that the economic pain will be greater than the virus pain. I think it's silly that they think these countries are all basically making the wrong choices.
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I suppose I don't have your exact context here, but I agree that what is being done now should be being done. Perhaps I misunderstood you.

The economic pain we suffer now from taking preventative measures is, probably, less than the economic pain we will suffer if we take no preventative measures.
 
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Springbok

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DickTrickle said:
I understand that. I'm talking to the people who think what is being done now shouldn't be done, that it's all panic and overreaction, that the economic pain will be greater than the virus pain. I think it's silly that they think these countries are all basically making the wrong choices.
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Those people are the very same that think social distancing is an extreme overreaction and this is "just a flu!111" - they are also the very same people that believe we're destroying our economy for no good reason (lol at destroy when the dow is currently sitting at 23k). The problem is, there has been very little in the way of a "measured response" to this whole thing. How about, it's absolutely a concerning pandemic for a multitude of reasons and for a multitude of people (elderly, immuno-supressed, smokers(?), medical workers etc) and some people have blown it out of proportion. The problem is, we'll never know either way because if the "extreme" measures we're going to have to endure (I don't believe we've seen anything yet in terms of shutdowns, isolation, hospital overruns) end up working, the "it's just a flu" monkeys will say it wasn't a big deal herp derp. If we go full scale laissez faire ala Italy we could be stuck in our homes in a month with dead relatives unable to get retrieved by the government.

If your big concern right now is the economy, I suspect that this is your first foray into the market in any meaningful way because for me (I'm 37) I've lived through and invested through times just as bad. So has everyone on this board (in fact, if that is your biggest concern I can't imagine why you aren't buying stocks hand over fist right now - traders love the volatility and even pleb investors like us can make hay). I also suspect the "it's just a flu!11tm" folks are antiv-vaxxer types with little to lose (i.e. families, children, etc). For me, I've got a 2 year and a pregnant wife - any data showing how this affects pregnant women, and the unborn children they're carrying?

This is already the worst "outbreak" anybody on this forum has ever lived through by some margin.

What I'll be interested to see is what long term effects this virus has on those who've caught it and survived (the vast majority who catch it). Who knows what the next 6 months, 6 years etc look like. Any theories medical experts of FOH?
 
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Khane

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AngryGerbil said:
But don't you see that the spread of this thing is covert and exponential? Don't be so short-sighted.

Even we medical people are at a loss as to how to stop this thing. It has a 14 day incubation period and you are contagious within those 14 days. By the time you display symptoms, you've already had the virus for 2 weeks and have already exposed god-knows how many people to it. That's literally the whole problem. Watch that Joe Rogan interview. Dude says SARS was relatively easy to clamp-down on because the incubation period was much shorter. COVID is a whole other thing.

We here in EMS are reacting to people with flu-like and with fevers, and that's all well and good, but the truth is that once a person has flu-like and has a fever, they have been spreading the disease for many days prior to that.

Look at Italy. Italy took your exact same position and now they are finding themselves overwhelmed.

I hate to be this guy but I will be: "An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure". You either believe in this old adage or you don't.
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Not sure what you're getting at. There's another old adage you either believe in or you don't. Cutting off the nose to spite the face.

Whether or not this is an overreaction is a moot point, we're here now so all we can hope for is that we either find a treatment or a vaccine and can get it into production ASAP. Keeping everything shut down is untenable and no amount of money in the form of a government stimulus is going to change the fact that people just aren't going to accept "social distancing" for very long especially when it is entirely unclear what the real threat here is. By all accounts this is only deadly to a very specific demographic.

This only works if everyone plays ball AND we find a method of treatment or a cure in short order. Otherwise everyone starts to re-socialize and go back to work before we can do anything to stop the mass contagion (if it really is that contagious) that we are trying to stop now. If you go from 60 to 0 and can effectively treat or prevent it entirely great. If you can't society isn't just going to ease back up to 60 over several months to "flatten the curve".
 
Khane

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DickTrickle said:
A very specific demographic totalling tens of millions, heh.
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It's the same demographic that has increased risk to a number of contagious ailments. And the longer things are shut down the more people are going to question the methodology and start to rebel against the collective. "Why do I need to change my life? Make them change theirs!".

Right or not it's the human condition.
 
AngryGerbil

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Khane said:
Not sure what you're getting at. There's another old adage you either believe in or you don't. Cutting off the nose to spite the face.

Whether or not this is an overreaction is a moot point, we're here now so all we can hope for is that we either find a treatment or a vaccine and can get it into production ASAP. Keeping everything shut down is untenable and no amount of money in the form of a government stimulus is going to change the fact that people just aren't going to accept "social distancing" for very long especially when it is entirely unclear what the real threat here is. By all accounts this is only deadly to a very specific demographic.

This only works if everyone plays ball AND we find a method of treatment or a cure in short order. Otherwise everyone starts to re-socialize and go back to work before we can do anything to stop the mass contagion (if it really is that contagious) that we are trying to stop now. If you go from 60 to 0 and can effectively treat or prevent it entirely great. If you can't society isn't just going to ease back up to 60 over several months to "flatten the curve".
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Watch the Rogan interview. Dude lays out that he can create a vaccine for this tomorrow, but the vaccine might be more harmful than the virus itself if we go into it blind. He explains the relativity complex process of how this happens (has nothing to do with mercury) and gives an example of how we once created a vaccine 'too quickly' and did more harm than good.

Vaccine is the ultimate solution COVID, and I expect it probably will happen eventually, but we cannot expect it to happen any time soon.

I would remind you that 'deadliness' is not the only factor involved here. 'Incapacity' also plays. So maybe only %2 of us die, but if %70 of us are incapacitated for 2-4 weeks all at once and that %70 of that happens in the same month, then we're fucked. That's the point.

Let's say %100 of us catch the bug. %2 of us simply die. %18 of us go on as usual, no problem. But then the other %70 of us will survive this thing but be incapacitated for 2-4 weeks in the process.

The idea is that if we accept the reality of the %70, then it is better that the %70 be spread out over as long of a time-scale as is possible so as not to overwhelm the system.

Not everyone will play ball. I get that. But if we can get as many people to play ball as possible, then we can curve the %70 over a longer period of time and allow the economic systems to continue at a depressed rate rather than curve the %70 upwards all at once and outright 'kill' as many economies as possible.
 
Khane

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You should try checking the links in the OP. Over 90% of confirmed cases are listed as Mild. Unless you think Mild means completely incapacitated for an entire month while convalescing.

I should have known better than to try to have a reasonable discussion, this thread is no different than the other one. Just that people are more verbose with their nonsense in this one.
 
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C

Captain Suave

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Khane said:
You should try checking the links in the OP. Over 90% of confirmed cases are listed as Mild.
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The case designations cannot be taken seriously. They say currently there are only 10 "serious" cases in the entire US. There are more ICU patients than that in NY state alone.

If you look at worldometer's methodology, they're scraping news stories for data. Anything beyond total case count and mortalities should be assumed as junk. Even case counts are strongly suspect, since we simply do not have the testing apparatus in place to get accurate figures.

The informational uncertainty is very high. The only thing we know for sure is that actual cases are higher than reported cases.
 
Khane

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Right, so let's make up our own metrics and sound the alarm. Even though a higher number of suspected cases than reported would be indicative of the population at large having mild reactions to it, not critical.
 
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Noodleface

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Governor Baker in MA shutdown all schools and restaurants are takeout only until April 17th. Dropping the hammer
 
C

Captain Suave

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Khane said:
Right, so let's make up our own metrics and sound the alarm. Even though a higher number of suspected cases than reported would be indicative of the population at large having mild reactions to it, not critical.
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Dude, have you seen Italy?
 
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