Flu Outbreak

Blide_sl said:

All I know is that I can point to exactly where I got my last cold. Was cooped up in a cabin with the family over Christmas with my step-sister's 2 year old and 18 month old. Within a couple days, every adult in the house minus the two parents were sick. It's pretty safe to assume one of those those 2 kids got us sick.

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How do you figure that? While it's likely the children could have gotten it from, say institutions, anyone of you could have been the carrier - or it could have been there before you got there - aka from the last guests - virus can live on surfaces several hours. If the kids and parents had been vaccinated or previously immunized by the same strain or vaccine they would not be carriers - unless it was within the week or so after symptoms of infections (not vaccine) when they're still contagious. It's pretty safe to assume, from the info you provided, that anyone could have been the carrier.

Obligatory George Carlin

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X29lF43mUlo

62% effective at what? Effectively curtailing a projected spread in the population or effective at mitigating infection and symptoms for those that got the vaccine?

Just curious. I guess it could be both wrapped into a single number, huh.

I read a similar article recently for Canuckistan, and the way they worded it implied that people who got the vaccine were 50% less likely to contract the flu or exhibit symptoms.

It's probably a lot simpler than that. Take the proportion of immunized people that contracted the flu and compare to a similar subset of people that got the flu but weren't immunized.

I had the flu shot in october of last year. Right now my entire household has the Flu. Wife, 8 year old and 3 year old. The past 2 days i havent been feeling great, but still havent contracted the full on Flu like they have. I have dealt with more puke and liquid crap in the past few days than in the last decade. I almost wish i had the Flu...

Well, i guess the shot really does work at least in my case. Thumbs up from me!

niss_sl said:

It's probably a lot simpler than that. Take the proportion of immunized people that contracted the flu and compare to a similar subset of people that got the flu but weren't immunized.

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Well that would be a stupid measure of vaccine efficiency because it's proportionate on the number of people who get the vaccine. The more people who get immunized by the vaccine the fewer non-immunized people get the flu by virtue of the fact that it's less contagious.

The Ancient_sl said:

Well that would be a stupid measure of vaccine efficiency because it's proportionate on the number of people who get the vaccine. The more people who get immunized by the vaccine the fewer non-immunized people get the flu by virtue of the fact that it's less contagious.

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Take 100 35year old white men with no medical conditions and are otherwise identical, that contracted the flu:

64 of them did not get the flu shot. 36 did. Is the vaccine working?

'chamo as the official internet doctor of FoHrolled, what is your position on inoculating children with the HPV vaccine?

Cutlery_sl said:

Take 100 likely voters. 64 of them are voting democrat, 36 are voting republican.

Are democrats oversampled?

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It's not quite the same thing. It's a better indicator to sample groups that already got the flu. There's a non-trivial reason that people get inoculated in the first place, and that reason alone is likely to skew your observations and make it seem your vaccine is more effective than it likely is. There really is no way to account for every variable, so you try to minimize their impact and make the most skeptical observations.

Cutlery_sl said:

Take 100 likely voters. 64 of them are voting democrat, 36 are voting republican.

Are democrats oversampled?

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I wasn't aware that people pick whether they want the flu or not, like they pick whether they wish to vote or not.
Oh wait, you are retarded.

yeah

Just got over this flu, hit me hard for a day and other than that wasnt so bad. My entire household had it even worse and are still attempting to recover from it. Oil of oregano works wonders, I swear by it.

Ericisme_sl said:

Just got over this flu, hit me hard for a day and other than that wasnt so bad. My entire household had it even worse and are still attempting to recover from it. Oil of oregano works wonders, I swear by it.

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In 2005, the US Federal Trade Commission brought legal action against a firm that had claimed oil of oregano treated colds and flus, and that oil of oregano taken orally treated and relieved bacterial and viral infections and their symptoms,[11] saying the representations were false or were not substantiated at the time the representations were made, and that they were therefore a deceptive practice and false advertisements.[12] The final stipulation on the matter said no representation as to any health benefit could be made without ".competent and reliable scientific evidence.".[13]

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregano#Medicinal
Also:

Despite the hype, there is no persuasive evidence to demonstrate that oil of oregano does anything useful in or on our bodies. And while it is popular, there is no science to support the use of oil of oregano for any medical condition. Suggesting that this herb is can effectively treat serious medical conditions like diabetes, asthma, and cancer is foolish and dangerous. If you're ill, stick to the proven science, and save your oregano for cooking.

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http://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/...il-of-oregano/

Correlation, causation, epidemiology and all that jazz is not your strong side, now is it?