Home buying thread

Im sorry, but fuck a property tax. Here they have multiple taxes and its all to support programs that can be filed under social services and the arts. Those programs are needed, but they are never strict enough as they should be and all it does is attract people wanting to feed off the fucking communities hand outs like a fucking leach. Thats why most of the fucking inner cities are a strong ass blue. Its not because the business leaders and landlords are some altruistic fucks, but its because the tenants that live there outnumber the fucking business owners and landlords by multiples to one. Whatever city or county you're in makes more than enough to support itself without these programs based off of just sales tax.

Lanx said:

housing is in such a decline that this holds true

'It's still a seller's market' despite mortgage rates hitting 23-year high

At 7.3% the week ending Sept. 28, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit the highest level since 2000. Still, home prices are rising.

www.usatoday.com

Click to expand...

My bodies ready for the real estate market to bottom out. I have the equity to take on my final form, a....

(Slum Lord for those w/o Spidey knowledge.)

High density building makes single family homes worth more and new built single family rise in cost so to fight it they build more high density

Me random parachute thought

Lanx said:

yea i remember when i got this house i told my mom i got a mortgage instead of paying cash and she was like why, it's so expensive. and i told her mom it's only like 2.4% (i told her in a different way in chinese, i didn't know how to say percentage, but said 2cents of a dollar, the point got across) and shes like not 20percent? she said our ny house was 12% in the 80s

it's not like our parents generation "had it easy"

Click to expand...

12% on something that costs 3-4x annual salary is still more affordable than right now.

1980
Med home 58K
Med hh income 18K
Rate 12%
30 yr monthly (10% down) 537
Labor hours cost 62/mo

2023
Med home 397k
Med hh income 75k
Rate 3%
30 yr/ 10% 1506
Labor cost 41.77 (but probably closer to 1.5 this because women working more so it's dual income) (62.6 hrs at 1.5x dual)

But

Rate 8%
30yr/10% 2621
Labor cost 72.7
Dual income 109 hrs

That obviously gets worse as it's more likely that in 1980 someone could actually put 20% down, and today we have the 1% loans.

Plus pmi, taxes, insurance, maintenance, building supplies, it's way, way more expensive right now than boomers buying 1st or 2nd house in early 80s.

Also, cost of living is way higher now than it was in the 80s. The home price to household income ratio might be similar to how it used to be, but if we look at net household income after cost of living expenses, the ratio is way worse.

Ive said it before and I’ll say it again. Interest rates need to go back to those 1980’s interest rates and STAY there. Yea, yea. This is horrible in the short term. People wont be buying houses, much less will it cause the recession that we’re in to actually show its multiple heads to people.

People need to understand that if its 20% interest to buy a house - then a 250k dollar house over 30 years is something like 4200 hundred a month. The vast majority if the nation cannot afford that. Whats the average income, what, 58,000 a year? Even with double income, thats one hell of a payment for most people.

Under that premise - the market is going to bomb in value. Thats generally what most people are hoping for. 90,000 at 20% for 30 years is 1500 a month and thats way more palatable.

As long as the Biden Administration is pussy footing around with the IRS - we’re going to continue to be stuck in this situation.

I think that thesis is kind of misplaced.

You can crank interest rates to 50% but it doesnt take current wealth out of the system. You just cripple those who rely on debt. You start making average family houses $90k, then they will just be snapped up instantly by the deep pocketed institutions that are flush with real wealth and you will truly live life as renters forever.

That's why QT is really what's the big driver right now, and not the interest rate hikes.

We did well pulling about a trillion out of the system, but we've started to reverse course since April. We need the pace of QT we had for another few years to erase the damage they did post-2008 with over a decade of QE, and then the $5T leap they did for covid.

Daidraco said:

Ive said it before and I’ll say it again. Interest rates need to go back to those 1980’s interest rates and STAY there. Yea, yea. This is horrible in the short term. People wont be buying houses, much less will it cause the recession that we’re in to actually show its multiple heads to people.

People need to understand that if its 20% interest to buy a house - then a 250k dollar house over 30 years is something like 4200 hundred a month. The vast majority if the nation cannot afford that. Whats the average income, what, 58,000 a year? Even with double income, thats one hell of a payment for most people.

Under that premise - the market is going to bomb in value. Thats generally what most people are hoping for. 90,000 at 20% for 30 years is 1500 a month and thats way more palatable.

As long as the Biden Administration is pussy footing around with the IRS - we’re going to continue to be stuck in this situation.

Click to expand...

The only people that are hoping the housing market bombs are the people that can’t afford a house.

Jysin said:

I think that thesis is kind of misplaced.

You can crank interest rates to 50% but it doesnt take current wealth out of the system. You just cripple those who rely on debt. You start making average family houses $90k, then they will just be snapped up instantly by the deep pocketed institutions that are flush with real wealth and you will truly live life as renters forever.

Click to expand...

Theyre already doing that, so I dont necessarily see the difference in what you're saying or why you mention it. But just because it was mentioned, when property values fall based on interest rates - companies like American Towers for example, will no longer have a desire to own them based on the fact that their liquid cash would be better off invested in something with a higher return.

I know you well enough to know that you know all about Volcker and how his historic interest rates had a significant impact on inflation, and, as I said in my original post, highlighted the recession that the country was in. People love to throw up how he put the country into a recession, but it was already in one. Never mind the economic boon that came across the entire country for years after the fact.

Lastly - Im well aware that you cant "crank the interest rate up" to some astronomical level, as the country still has to run. But Federal spending is out of control and the middle classes wealth is evaporating the longer it takes to identify that lawyers dont have a clue about balancing a fucking budget.

Ishad said:

The only people that are hoping the housing market bombs are the people that can’t afford a house.

Click to expand...

There are exceedingly more and more people that cannot afford a house. You should be able to see that there would be a large benefit to the nation at large, including yourself, if more people can afford a house. Being narrow minded about it all is pretty Foler'esque.

Yeah, let's blow up a quarter of our national wealth. What could go wrong? I understand that there is a problem with housing affordability (I just bought one myself earlier this year and it hurt), but completely ass-fucking everyone who currently owns real estate is not the answer.



Fixing affordability will only come with a combination of changes: Preferences evolving to accept smaller, denser living spaces (apartments), accompanying changes of zoning that will allow the conversion of larger residences into smaller and denser, remote work allowing masses of people becoming willing to live out in the boonies (moving backwards on this right now), and employment growth in construction and trades that will facilitate and lower the cost of building.

Until these things happen, not a lot is going to change. We're short almost 7 million homes for the current population and there isn't anywhere to put them (where anyone actually wants to live) or tradesmen to build them.

Captain Suave said:

Yeah, let's blow up a quarter of our national wealth. What could go wrong? I understand that there is a problem with housing affordability (I just bought one myself earlier this year and it hurt), but completely ass-fucking everyone who currently owns real estate is not the answer.

View attachment 493903

Fixing affordability will only come with a combination of changes: Preferences evolving to accept smaller, denser living spaces (apartments), accompanying changes of zoning that will allow the conversion of larger residences into smaller and denser, remote work allowing masses of people becoming willing to live out in the boonies (moving backwards on this right now), and employment growth in construction and trades that will facilitate and lower the cost of building.

Until these things happen, not a lot is going to change. We're short almost 7 million homes for the current population and there isn't anywhere to put them (where anyone actually wants to live) or tradesmen to build them.

Click to expand...

We dont have new housing being built because across the board, you have neighborhood, county, and state regulations that are keeping what should be an affordable build out of reach for the average American. Most of which are are disguised as ecological regulations - when in reality, its just a barrier to entry into a neighborhood. As for the lack of housing, Canada is a prime example of why housing is getting tighter. You quote a lack of 7 million houses, and I quote an influx of almost 12 million immigrants this year alone, and the year is not over yet.

As you're pointing out indirectly, this is a multi-faceted problem - but an interest rate that consolidates and rebuilds the value of the dollar is needed. As itll cleanse the palate of the nation, not "bomb" the housing market. And yes, obviously supporting things that dont consolidate the population into high population areas would be beneficial all around. Every fear that Ive read in the news about interest rates just screams MSM manipulation by the very companies that are the primary threats to the country at this very moment.

Of course no one wants higher interest rates. No one wants to be punished for the Fed consistently fucking us for the past 25 years. But Im not seeing any other option when it comes to restoring the US's dollar, and by extension, its housing market. Everything thats been mentioned and tried, is a band-aid at best.

Daidraco said:

I quote an influx of almost 12 million immigrants this year alone, and the year is not over yet.

Click to expand...

That number seems high by a factor of 5, if not 10. I think you're thinking of the total number of illegal immigrants living here, not the annual flow.

Daidraco said:

obviously supporting things that dont consolidate the population into high population areas would be beneficial all around.

Click to expand...

Re-ruralization of the population is not happening. There's insufficient infrastructure, housing stock, anyone to build the housing, or employment for people living there.

Ishad said:

The only people that are hoping the housing market bombs are the people that can’t afford a house.

Click to expand...

The fuck you say, i hope to god it crashes and the near 100k I’m sitting on is enough to buy another house cash money. The housing market will recover, the people wanting the crash are the people with money and know it will recover.