Investing General Discussion

Shonuff

Just as an FYI, UK covid cases are nearly back to Delta wave peak. Government has opened up an inquiry into a "Delta+" mutation. I know you had reopening plays. I have been all out for a bit now. Just to keep anyone else aware trading these names. We knew winter would likely pick up cases, but something else is already happening fairly early on here.

If this replicates in the US, you can expect more doom and gloom covid news hitting the travel sector once again.

Mist said:

Cases are just a product of testing. Cases do not mean illness.

'Hospitalization' is just a product of having more beds freed up. They are hospitalizing people with less severe illness, so they can pump them full of Regeneron and other proactive treatments (since they don't actually work once you hit severe symptoms.)

Without a graph of ICU beds occupied, it's hard to say this is a new wave.

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People are irrational, however. Especially when the media has a chance to pump some doom and gloom ratings views.

STLD double beat, stock bounces in PM and sells off just before open.

Other steel companies follow the drop.




X still beating out CLF, even with the downgrade.

Just wish it would have dipped into the 19's so I could pick up shares with the rest of the smart money. High 20's is nothing.


The Hank Hill memes are top notch!

Mist said:

Cases are just a product of testing. Cases do not mean illness.

'Hospitalization' is just a product of having more beds freed up. They are hospitalizing people with less severe illness, so they can pump them full of Regeneron and other proactive treatments (since they don't actually work once you hit severe symptoms.)

Without a graph of ICU beds occupied, it's hard to say this is a new wave.

Click to expand...

From British PM earlier today:

“We’re starting to see indications that hospitalizations and death rates are increasing,” Johnson’s official spokesman Max Blain said to reporters Tuesday. “Clearly we are keeping a very close eye on rising case rates.”

Click to expand...

Jysin said:

People are irrational, however. Especially when the media has a chance to pump some doom and gloom ratings views.

Click to expand...

I don't know how to take the data. Covid deaths in the UK haven't gone up. Israel keeps jabbing everyone and isn't seeing much covid at all.

Big Phoenix said:

I wouldnt hold your breath. Singapore is 80%+ vaccinated yet look at their current situation;

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I think this is the number to pay attention to:

"Most new cases of Covid-19—over 98%—have been either mild or asymptomatic, according to Singapore’s health ministry. The death rate over the last 28 days stands at 0.1%, despite an unprecedented surge in cases."

What do you’ll think about the GME report? Many here invested in GME / AMC?

DIS was stubborn all day at 170.40, but finally broke over 171 in power hour. Good thing I went further out on the strike for my calls since this bounce is taking longer to develop than the others

For those with the stomach for higher-risk, higher-reward plays, I'll probably be buying more NVAX if they open down substantially tomorrow.

There's a news article from Politico reporting that Novavax is struggling to hit purity requirements for their COVID vaccine and that it's leading to production delays and may slow their potential FDA authorization.

Despite that, their data that's been released so far looks really good - strong protection, good preclinical results, good safety profile. It's a different type of vaccine (protein subunit) then the ones available now, which makes it an interesting new addition if it gets authorized, especially with the new focus on heterologous boosting. It seems surprisingly potent compared to most other subunit vaccines I've read about... they have a proprietary ingredient called an adjuvant in their vaccine that seems to pair really nicely with these particular protein nanoparticles, but whatever the case I've been very impressed since I saw their first sets of results.

Separate from COVID-19, they've had some high-profile failures (RSV vaccine) but also a recent phase 3 success (flu) that looked impressive. It could very well come crashing back down (it was a few dollars per share pre-COVID, now it's $160), but if they manage to carve out a slice of the COVID and flu vaccine market they could easily see a multiple fold increase in valuation. I've heard they've also been poaching some talent from big pharma which is often a sign that a company is gearing up for growth

Likely to be a bumpy ride with lots of ups and downs, but it's looking like early-mid 2022 (possibly later this year, but unlikely) we could see some regulatory action that will really change things for better or worse. If this bad press drops them substantially below 150 tomorrow I may buy shares or even some calls. I initially bought in at $14 so this is just gravy for me, but it's one of the few vaccine plays that seems more likely than not to actually snag a real piece of this market. Please note: I only trade for fun so this is just a lotto ticket... I am often wrong about these things!