For those with the stomach for higher-risk, higher-reward plays, I'll probably be buying more NVAX if they open down substantially tomorrow.
There's a news article from Politico reporting that Novavax is struggling to hit purity requirements for their COVID vaccine and that it's leading to production delays and may slow their potential FDA authorization.
Despite that, their data that's been released so far looks really good - strong protection, good preclinical results, good safety profile. It's a different type of vaccine (protein subunit) then the ones available now, which makes it an interesting new addition if it gets authorized, especially with the new focus on heterologous boosting. It seems surprisingly potent compared to most other subunit vaccines I've read about... they have a proprietary ingredient called an adjuvant in their vaccine that seems to pair really nicely with these particular protein nanoparticles, but whatever the case I've been very impressed since I saw their first sets of results.
Separate from COVID-19, they've had some high-profile failures (RSV vaccine) but also a recent phase 3 success (flu) that looked impressive. It could very well come crashing back down (it was a few dollars per share pre-COVID, now it's $160), but if they manage to carve out a slice of the COVID and flu vaccine market they could easily see a multiple fold increase in valuation. I've heard they've also been poaching some talent from big pharma which is often a sign that a company is gearing up for growth
Likely to be a bumpy ride with lots of ups and downs, but it's looking like early-mid 2022 (possibly later this year, but unlikely) we could see some regulatory action that will really change things for better or worse. If this bad press drops them substantially below 150 tomorrow I may buy shares or even some calls. I initially bought in at $14 so this is just gravy for me, but it's one of the few vaccine plays that seems more likely than not to actually snag a real piece of this market. Please note: I only trade for fun so this is just a lotto ticket... I am often wrong about these things!