Investing General Discussion
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
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2s and 10s looking about to invert. Watch all the algos go wild when it does.
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
- 41,537
- 107,628
Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
- 41,537
- 107,628
Better to go ask in the crypto thread about stablecoins. I posted it here mainly for the MBS lulz, because what could possibly go wrong with backing shit with mortgages? I mean, people always pay their mortgages, amirite?
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Uh huh, uh huh.
I remember last time 2s and 10s inverted, it was wild! 2s and 10s inverting is totally something that I know what... is. Yup, very familiar with it.
Tmac
Adventurer
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
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Reader's digest version:
Time value of money tells us that longer dated debt should pay more interest. So 2-yr treasuries should pay less interest than 10-yr treasuries. The 2s are about two basis points from inverting with the 10s. Which means the 2yr would be yielding more than the 10s.
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
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Lol, with the THOT SPAC post before it, I thought you were talking about hoes or something. I'm thinking, wait how could 2's ever replace a 10?? Is he doing an old Carlin-esque I never had a 10, but one time I had 5 2's joke?? Do THOT's that are 2's even register as THOT's??
I must need more coffee.
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
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To add some clarity to the 2/10. If you bought a new 10-yr treasury today you would tie up your money for 10 years and get the same return you would get buying a 2-yr treasury and tying up your money for 2 years.
edit: for historical reference ONLY! since the market is a forward looking monster. Since the 1970's the 2/10 has inverted six times and all six had preceded a recession. But of course, that is just history and doesn't mean it will happen again.
edit: for historical reference ONLY! since the market is a forward looking monster. Since the 1970's the 2/10 has inverted six times and all six had preceded a recession. But of course, that is just history and doesn't mean it will happen again.
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
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Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
- 41,537
- 107,628
Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
- 41,537
- 107,628
Tmac
Adventurer
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So, the 2/10 inversion has meant recessions 6 out of 6 times, but that doesn't mean it will happen again?
Things that make you go HRMMMMMMM...
Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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I'd argue we've been in recession for the last 2-4 quarters, but the printing presses are obfuscating it.
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
- 41,537
- 107,628
