Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Tmac
Adventurer
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Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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14:40 (US) Fed Chair Powell: 75bps rate hike is not something we are actively considering; Expectations are that we'll start to see inflation flattening; Some evidence core PCE is peaking - post rate decision Q&A
- We will not hesitate to go higher on rates if we have to; We could go higher than neutral if necessary; Certainly possible Fed may need to move policy to restrictive levels
- Don't want to just see 'some evidence' on inflation; We want to see progress
- Broad sense that additional 50bps hikes should be on the table for next couple meetings; Those decisions will be made at the meetings as new data comes in
- Still have a good chance for a soft or 'softish' landing; Does expect it to be very challenging however
- We think job creation will slow; Possible the jobless rate will go down further
- Wages are running high, especially in services sector
- Thinks supply and demand will come back into balance for labor market
- There is a path in which labor market moderates without unemployment rising; By moderating demand, we could see vacancies drop
- Don't see a wage-price spiral now; Can't run risk of wage-price spiral and unanchored expectations
- We don't have a specific goal for ratio of job openings to unemployed (Beveridge Curve) but right now it is too high (2:1)
- Nothing in economy suggests it is close to or vulnerable to a recession; We could see slower economic activity as fiscal policy wanes
- Effect of shrinking the balance sheet is uncertain
- Should not read anything into runoff start date of June 1st versus mid-May
- Does not think that the Fed has a credibility problem; Does not see two Fed mandates in tension right now
- Wage rises are to some extent being eaten up by inflation
- We will not hesitate to go higher on rates if we have to; We could go higher than neutral if necessary; Certainly possible Fed may need to move policy to restrictive levels
- Don't want to just see 'some evidence' on inflation; We want to see progress
- Broad sense that additional 50bps hikes should be on the table for next couple meetings; Those decisions will be made at the meetings as new data comes in
- Still have a good chance for a soft or 'softish' landing; Does expect it to be very challenging however
- We think job creation will slow; Possible the jobless rate will go down further
- Wages are running high, especially in services sector
- Thinks supply and demand will come back into balance for labor market
- There is a path in which labor market moderates without unemployment rising; By moderating demand, we could see vacancies drop
- Don't see a wage-price spiral now; Can't run risk of wage-price spiral and unanchored expectations
- We don't have a specific goal for ratio of job openings to unemployed (Beveridge Curve) but right now it is too high (2:1)
- Nothing in economy suggests it is close to or vulnerable to a recession; We could see slower economic activity as fiscal policy wanes
- Effect of shrinking the balance sheet is uncertain
- Should not read anything into runoff start date of June 1st versus mid-May
- Does not think that the Fed has a credibility problem; Does not see two Fed mandates in tension right now
- Wage rises are to some extent being eaten up by inflation
Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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It's really amazing. Between him and Yellen it's a whole lot of denial about things that are incredibly obvious. From "transitory inflation" to "we don't see signs of a recession," it's all just bullshit coming from them.
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Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
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See and this is why Bears are so fucked. The Fed flat out refuses to address inflation seriously because Markets > Economy. Piss on Bears all you like but they aren't wrong, they are just fighting a losing battle and against Powell and the Fed.
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
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So I cost myself some alpha closing my puts before the announcement but it is what it is. 10% inflation here we come.