Investing General Discussion

C

Creslin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Yeah recession being a certainty at this point is driving ideas the Fed will now just ignore inflation and not raise or not raise as much. Buy! Buy! Buy!
Clown world.
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Final week of the month after 8 down weeks in a row. It doesn't really make sense but it isn't surprising either.

I feel like the fed telling us sweet little lies about ending the rate hike plan early is part of their whole soft landing BS.

Could be a real bear market rally though, Nasdaq especially is massively down from it's highs so if we enter into a lull in the bad news for a few weeks then I could see some big gains. Ultimately though Q2 earnings are going to be a slaughter with a weakening consumer and every retail company being hammered by falling sales and rising fuel costs.
 
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Mist

Mist

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Creslin said:
Final week of the month after 8 down weeks in a row. It doesn't really make sense but it isn't surprising either.

I feel like the fed telling us sweet little lies about ending the rate hike plan early is part of their whole soft landing BS.

Could be a real bear market rally though, Nasdaq especially is massively down from it's highs so if we enter into a lull in the bad news for a few weeks then I could see some big gains. Ultimately though Q2 earnings are going to be a slaughter with a weakening consumer and every retail company being hammered by falling sales and rising fuel costs.
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Remember, we could totally flush these gains in power hour. I have faith.
 
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Gravel

Gravel

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Down markets don't just go red every single day. There's lots of volatility on the way down. That's what makes it so hard to time the bottom.

This could mean nothing or it could be the recovery.

The idea that this is short lived is kind of weird though. It's 5 months of red, culminating in a true bear. Is it fucking weird because 2021 ripped so hard? Yeah, but that's neither here nor there.
 
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Zog

Zog

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1653592677986.png


Which green candles were the reversal and a bear market rally?

Dumb narrative.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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Zog said:
Which green candles were the reversal and a bear market rally?

Dumb narrative.
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Zog Zog Bit of a friendly request / advice. When you post charts, include ticker, timeframe, and price levels. You frequently post charts with 0 reference to any of that and the message becomes a bit meaningless re context.
 
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Zog

Zog

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Jysin said:
Zog Zog Bit of a friendly request / advice. When you post charts, include ticker, timeframe, and price levels. You frequently post charts with 0 reference to any of that and the message becomes a bit meaningless re context.
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Whether its SPY or QQQ, they are practically the same.

The point of the post is this green day has been sprinkled with dreams of some out of the ordinary reversal where we havent done anything besides break out of a downward channel that hasnt even hit the prior resistance level of the previous "high."

It's ridiculous.
 
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Lightning Lord Rule

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Fidelity finally got back to me about my reports of having a day in the green and it was an obvious glitch in their software...


They told me that joke wasn't funny after 23 times :(
 
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Tmac

Tmac

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Furry said:
So is this a dead cat bounce, or is it the end of the nearly two week recession? We had some two day recessions last year, not sure what to think about one that lasted this long.
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Bitcoin hasn't budged, so I'll take the dead cat bounce for $200 Alex.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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Friday going into a long weekend. Typically the volume will dry up quickly after the first 30-60mins. Don't go out trying to be a hero today.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Jysin said:
Friday going into a long weekend. Typically the volume will dry up quickly after the first 30-60mins. Don't go out trying to be a hero today.
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Most Wallstreeters are already on their way to the Hamptons. Got the interns set to close positions for them at the open.

Don't forget the old adage sell in May and go away.
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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Some positive news just gave a pre bump.

08:30 *(US) APR PERSONAL INCOME: 0.4% V 0.5%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.9% V 0.8%E
- Real Personal Spending (PCE): 0.7% v 0.7%e
- Prior Personal Spending revised higher from 1.1% to 1.4%
- Prior Real Personal Spending (PCE) revised higher from 0.2% to 0.5%

08:30 *(US) APR ADVANCE GOODS TRADE BALANCE: -$105.9B V -$114.8BE
- Prior deficit revised narrower from -$127.1B to -$125.9B (record)

08:30 *(US) APR PRELIMINARY WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: 2.1% V 2.0%E
- Retail Inventories M/M: 0.7% v 2.0%e
- Prior Wholesale Inventories revised higher from 2.3% to 2.7%
- Prior Retail Inventories revised higher from 2.0% to 3.0%
 
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Zzen

Zzen

Potato del Grande
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Nom nom nom. Yummy consumer data.

Happy Memorial Day, and fuck your puts.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Jysin said:
Some positive news just gave a pre bump.

08:30 *(US) APR PERSONAL INCOME: 0.4% V 0.5%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.9% V 0.8%E
- Real Personal Spending (PCE): 0.7% v 0.7%e
- Prior Personal Spending revised higher from 1.1% to 1.4%
- Prior Real Personal Spending (PCE) revised higher from 0.2% to 0.5%

08:30 *(US) APR ADVANCE GOODS TRADE BALANCE: -$105.9B V -$114.8BE
- Prior deficit revised narrower from -$127.1B to -$125.9B (record)

08:30 *(US) APR PRELIMINARY WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: 2.1% V 2.0%E
- Retail Inventories M/M: 0.7% v 2.0%e
- Prior Wholesale Inventories revised higher from 2.3% to 2.7%
- Prior Retail Inventories revised higher from 2.0% to 3.0%
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This will provide the opening rip that the Wallstreet pros will sell into as they head for their summer homes until Labor day.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
This will provide the opening rip that the Wallstreet pros will sell into as they head for their summer homes until Labor day.
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Typically agree. However, I am checking my bias at the door today. We have had a very long drawn out drop and we are overdue for an attempted bounce. Bear market bounces can be quite violent to the upside as more pile in worried they missed "the bottom" and fomo sets in and next thing you know we rip back to the 100D/200D. Not saying this will happen today, but it isn't at all unheard of in these environments.

This spending / trade balance / inventory news is all positive and can make the bears step aside, if only temporarily.
 
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