Investing General Discussion

I think we can pull a few of these quotes from the thread over time.

OU Ariakas said:

I have a question for our group of experts when it comes to markets; are you at all concerned about the impending population declines of most of the western nations when we talk about historic growth trends and predicting them into the future? If you are not worried about it is it because there will always be high performing, innovative companies that will drive the markets higher even in world where there are less people participating in those markets? This is not a gotcha type question; it was simply something I was thinking about because everyone talks about how the market has increased for the last 100 years; but that also coincided with huge population booms in every country.

Click to expand...

I'm quite concerned about it, new household creation is at the root of our economy. Population growth is economic growth. Currently those demographic changes are being softened by increases in productivity and that will likely continue. Africa is the last place of high pop growth that needs a significant bump to standard of living, I don't want to delve into that topic too deep here as it will lead astray from this threads purpose, but I will say that I don't believe Nigeria will do as well at it as South America and S and SE Asia have. They are starting from a low base however and incremental improvements still contribute even if the "middle class" standard of living is still well below western standards.

I have made posts before about demographics and their role in super cycles and secular trends. I do believe that the 2030s are in a ripe position for some serious problems due to structural issues rooted in well developed economies.

It is not unreasonable to stay open minded that robotics and automation may change how these cycles have worked, ie we can still economically expand even if the productive population of the world is in decline. My base case though is still at least a lost decade maybe decade in a half as we make those changes. Boomers will die off and the US, UK, Canada, Australia, Germany, France, Italy, Greece, Russia, Japan and China all are going to be in steep population decline outside of immigration. Gen X is still too small and Millennials are not having kids, Gen Z is showing signs that normal coupling is on the verge of breakdown.

To bring it back to investing, while I believe strongly that we are facing a global upheaval on par with the industrial revelution, that doesn't mean you sit at your PC everday talking about limit down every night. I do believe that those who aren't prepared to keep an open mind are going to really struggle as long in place dynamics begin to shift.

I have and will continue to put significant resources into long term assets (farm, land, food and energy security) through this decade but when it comes to trading and investing as always it is done a day at a time with an open mind, weighing the evidence in hand (all of the evidence, not just the scary shit)