Sanrith Descartes
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Investing General Discussion
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Arden
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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I like low-risk plays. The TQQQ $11 strike puts with Dec expiry have a 90.64% chance of of being out of the money. Premium is around 32 cents. This is my most likely play today if I see the QQQ circle back to $260 (which I believe it will).
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How hasn't he been replaced at this point? I mean when you are literally a meme because you are wrong every time how do you keep your job?
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Are you nuts?? How would we know what to bet against?!
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Flobee
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Caused by currency swaps. VIX is inversely pegged to DXY it seems for the time being. Political manipulation
This weird cat guy on Twitter has been railing on this point for months. He's consistently calling moves before they happen based off the swaplines, so I tend to believe him at this point although I admittedly don't entirely understand it.
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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PYPL double beat but lowered FY revenue guidance. Best loss I ever ate. Fuck em.
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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That seems more like betting against the economy? It's basically saying we need to crush everything, but only enough to keep it stable where it is. Any variance up or down tanks it.
Flobee
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I don't entirely understand how all these levers work in coordination, but my understanding is that swaps are being used between Central Banks to provide liquidity for USD debt other sovereigns hold and need to service. This same system of currency swaps is being used to control the general actions of the market, in this case suppressing VIX and raising DXY. That Twitter account I posted goes pretty deep on this and has a pinned tweet explaining the basics of what he is seeing. The swaps are 100% happening behind the scenes, the intention behind them and the downstream effects are debatable.
About to post an article to the BTC thread along this vein RE: what the Fed may be trying to accomplish and what the motivation may be behind their refusal to pivot. Represents a perspective I'd not thought of at least. I've been firmly in the "they can't tighten for long" camp.
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Yeah, I have no idea what it's actually doing. My thought was just that by tying the currency to VIX, you're effectively trying to blunt volatility and any move up or down in the markets therefore also get squashed before it can make a significant movement. Essentially trying to manipulate everything to stay even until they decide to stop pegging them.
But I seriously may be misreading it completely.
But I seriously may be misreading it completely.
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Maybe whats behind the refusal to pivot is inflation still roaring above 8%?
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Mist
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Debts taken out by foreign countries in dollars, have to be paid in dollars, so this keeps the demand for dollars high and stable because foreign countries took out tons of debt in dollars during COVID but also beforehand.
This is, at least, until they all go into default one after another due cascading credit crisis.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Mist
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Right, so as long as most debt is denominated in dollars, demand for the dollar stays strong.
It's not a conspiracy, it's just how debt works.
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Flobee
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Yup, but when the foreign banks run out of USD they either have to sell treasuries which would put downward pressure on yields, or get more USD which is what the swaps are for. Japan is running dangerously low on USD for example and they're one of the biggest swaplines in use right now
Mist
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Why would some country being forced to sell older, lower-yield treasuries for cash to pay debt put downward pressure on newer, higher-yield treasuries? This is where it starts really breaking down and not making much sense to me.