Investing General Discussion

Mist · Jan 18, 2023

All inflation has gone into eggs. Just eggs.

Well and rents/housing is still completely fucked but that's never going to get fixed in nimby/slumlord America.

Gravel · Jan 18, 2023

Sanrith Descartes said:

"Miss," but in a good direction, yes?

Seeing lots of talk about that being "deflationary," as if 6% Y/Y is somehow a harbinger of a deflationary spiral or something. It's still fucking 6% which is something a few years ago we would've been like "holy shit how did inflation get so bad?"

Hateyou · Jan 18, 2023

Mist said:
All inflation has gone into eggs. Just eggs.

Well and rents/housing is still completely fucked but that's never going to get fixed in nimby/slumlord America.

Bullshit. Buy groceries for an entire family, look at your monthly bill two years ago versus today. I know you’re just memeing but it wasn’t just eggs, not even close.

Mist · Jan 18, 2023

Hateyou said:
Bullshit. Buy groceries for an entire family, look at your monthly bill two years ago versus today. I know you’re just memeing but it wasn’t just eggs, not even close.

Pork and beef have retreated a lot from their highs. I was just in the market yesterday thinking about how much the price has come back down.

Cereal is super fucked though. I'm thinking anything grain related is going to be fucked for a long time. Fruit is all over the place, some things are super cheap and some things like cherries are stupid expensive.

Edaw · Jan 18, 2023

Gravel said:
"Miss," but in a good direction, yes?

Seeing lots of talk about that being "deflationary," as if 6% Y/Y is somehow a harbinger of a deflationary spiral or something. It's still fucking 6% which is something a few years ago we would've been like "holy shit how did inflation get so bad?"

Mist · Jan 18, 2023

Edaw said:
View attachment 453826

Gravel said:
"holy shit how did inflation get so bad?"

Edaw · Jan 18, 2023

Gravel · Jan 18, 2023

Mist said:
View attachment 453827

Yes, we understand why inflation is bad now. Or at least, those of us being honest.

I just meant 6% Y/Y PPI would've been astronomical 5 years ago and people would've wondered wtf happened. But today people are calling it deflationary. It's about perspective. And my point is that 6% is in no way deflationary.

Mist · Jan 18, 2023

Gravel said:
Yes, we understand why inflation is bad now. Or at least, those of us being honest.

I just meant 6% Y/Y PPI would've been astronomical 5 years ago and people would've wondered wtf happened. But today people are calling it deflationary. It's about perspective. And my point is that 6% is in no way deflationary.

No but -0.5% in one month definitely is deflationary.

Fogel · Jan 18, 2023

Mist said:
No but -0.5% in one month definitely is deflationary.

No, it's not deflationary. Deflationary suggest things are getting cheaper. What's happening is things are getting more expensive at a slower rate. So its less inflationary, not deflationary.

Mist · Jan 18, 2023

Fogel said:
No, it's not deflationary. Deflationary suggest things are getting cheaper. What's happening is things are getting more expensive at a slower rate. So its less inflationary, not deflationary.

Month-to-month it's deflationary. It is saying things got cheaper this month vs last month, but things are still more expensive this month vs 1 year ago.

Gravel · Jan 18, 2023

Mist said:
Month-to-month it's deflationary. It is saying things got cheaper this month vs last month, but things are still more expensive this month vs 1 year ago.

Fair. But month to month isn't really a metric to make any inferences from. There's no trend to look at there. It's just a single data point.

Since year over year is still massively up, we can see a trend that prices are still up, which is inflation.

Jysin · Jan 18, 2023

No, we are not deflating prices. Fogel is right on this. We are still inflating, albeit at a slower rate. The rate (while lower than previous months) is still extraordinarily high compared to the last few decades.

Fogel · Jan 18, 2023

Jysin said:
No, we are not deflating prices. Fogel is right on this. We are still inflating, albeit at a slower rate. The rate (while lower than previous months) is still extraordinarily high compared to the last few decades.

Yeah but the price of eggs from yesterday to today was 1 cent cheaper! Checkmate deflation!

Edaw · Jan 18, 2023

Fogel said:
No, it's not deflationary. Deflationary suggest things are getting cheaper. What's happening is things are getting more expensive at a slower rate. So its less inflationary, not deflationary.

Mist said:
Month-to-month it's deflationary. It is saying things got cheaper this month vs last month, but things are still more expensive this month vs 1 year ago.

Screenshot 2023-01-18 at 09-28-09 ChatGPT.png

"This is a situation of disinflation, which is a slowing down of the rate of inflation."

Furry · Jan 18, 2023

Energy prices had some relief, which is probably why things slowed a little. The core problem is still bad, and with like everyone I know getting raises, oil going back up, and demand nothing close to slowing, the core problem is still there and bad.

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 18, 2023

If INTC keeps dropping this week I might end up keeping my shares I sold calls on that expire Friday.

Mist · Jan 18, 2023

Gravel said:
Fair. But month to month isn't really a metric to make any inferences from. There's no trend to look at there. It's just a single data point.

Since year over year is still massively up, we can see a trend that prices are still up, which is inflation.

Edaw said:
View attachment 453829

"This is a situation of disinflation, which is a slowing down of the rate of inflation."

What matters is which direction things are going in right now. A lot of policy changes have been made in the past year. A lot of world events have happened in the past year. If the trends we have today continue for 4-6 months, inflation will be in line with normal expectations. The direction of the economy generally lags behind policy by 12-18 months, though can be impacted by real-world-events in near-realtime. So whatever is happening right now is reflecting policy changes that were started over a year ago combined with actual events that occurred in the world over the past year. Continuing to make big policy changes (aka continued tightening) right now could have extremely adverse effects 12-18 months from now at which point it would be too late to reverse them.

Edaw · Jan 18, 2023

Mist said:
What matters is which direction things are going in right now. A lot of policy changes have been made in the past year. A lot of world events have happened in the past year. If the trends we have today continue for 4-6 months, inflation will be in line with normal expectations. The direction of the economy generally lags behind policy by 12-18 months, though can be impacted by real-world-events in near-realtime. So whatever is happening right now is reflecting policy changes that were started over a year ago combined with actual events that occurred in the world over the past year. Continuing to make big policy changes (aka continued tightening) right now could have extremely adverse effects 12-18 months from now at which point it would be too late to reverse them.

The AI has a response. (To be fair, I did ask it to be sarcastic.)

Screenshot 2023-01-18 at 09-46-24 ChatGPT.png

It seems to be a bit of an asshole, if you ask me.

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