Investing General Discussion
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Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Correspondent / Stock Pals CEO
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Holy shit. Hell of a play.Araysar what are your thoughts? Seems like UNH may be a solid company to hodl due to fundamentals.
What's there to say? Sometimes gambling pays off. In the long run the advice was/is still terrible.
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Tmac
Adventurer
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Got this from the unusual whales newsletter and thought it was worth posting bc it's a deeper "how to" than we typically get here on options.
The trade we’ll be covering today occurred on April 11th, 2024. During the morning, Apple $AAPL was trading between $167 per share and $168 per share. Around 10:30am Central Time, $AAPL began trending up. This break through the upside of the chop is where our trader’s story begins. As $AAPL broke through the wall at $169, we noted significant activity on the $185 Call contract for 5/3/2024.
While $AAPL traded at $171.09 per share, 1,000 contracts of the $185 C 05/03/2024 transacted at once, for an average price of $0.65 per contract, catching the breakout as $AAPL pushed through $69 per share. Shortly after, the position continued building with another 500 contracts hitting the tape at an average fill of $0.69. As $AAPL continued trending higher, contracts kept coming in.
Between 12:13 and 12:26pm Central, another 916 contracts came in at fills ranging from $0.65 to $0.77 per contract. By 1:00pm Central, this position had grown to well over 2,200 contracts. All the while, $AAPL continued to trend up.
Above, we can see where the position began building, and where it grew, all within a short 20 minute timespan. It’s clear both from the timing of the contract, and on the chart above, that this position was instantly profitable. And you can see that $AAPL certainly didn’t stop rising all the way through the end of the session. At around 2:30pm Central Time, we noted two large transactions on the contract at the BID side.
This transaction brought the total daily volume up to over 7,000. However, remember, we saw positions building on the ASK side all afternoon up until this point. The first transaction here contained over 1,000 contracts, at the bid, for an average fill of $1.30 per contract while $AAPL traded at $174.78
Now, it is possible that this BID SIDE activity was a new position wherein someone shorted, or sold to open, those contracts. However, given the context of that afternoon, it seemed more likely that this was the prior volume being closed out. How can we know for sure? Look at the Volume and Open Interest. Even though a total of 7,517 contracts transacted on April 11th, only 1,689 contracts stayed open into the next day. This shows us that not all of the volume on the 11th was new positioning. This is a day trade, in-and-out.
This trader exited their position around 2:30 to 2:35pm on the same day they opened their position. From their initial average entry of $0.69 per contract while $AAPL traded at $171.09, they closed the position at $1.30 per contract. This netted our trader a profit of +88.4% in just a few short hours, and stands as a prime example of a successful intraday momentum trade.
The trade we’ll be covering today occurred on April 11th, 2024. During the morning, Apple $AAPL was trading between $167 per share and $168 per share. Around 10:30am Central Time, $AAPL began trending up. This break through the upside of the chop is where our trader’s story begins. As $AAPL broke through the wall at $169, we noted significant activity on the $185 Call contract for 5/3/2024.
|
While $AAPL traded at $171.09 per share, 1,000 contracts of the $185 C 05/03/2024 transacted at once, for an average price of $0.65 per contract, catching the breakout as $AAPL pushed through $69 per share. Shortly after, the position continued building with another 500 contracts hitting the tape at an average fill of $0.69. As $AAPL continued trending higher, contracts kept coming in.
|
Between 12:13 and 12:26pm Central, another 916 contracts came in at fills ranging from $0.65 to $0.77 per contract. By 1:00pm Central, this position had grown to well over 2,200 contracts. All the while, $AAPL continued to trend up.
|
Above, we can see where the position began building, and where it grew, all within a short 20 minute timespan. It’s clear both from the timing of the contract, and on the chart above, that this position was instantly profitable. And you can see that $AAPL certainly didn’t stop rising all the way through the end of the session. At around 2:30pm Central Time, we noted two large transactions on the contract at the BID side.
|
This transaction brought the total daily volume up to over 7,000. However, remember, we saw positions building on the ASK side all afternoon up until this point. The first transaction here contained over 1,000 contracts, at the bid, for an average fill of $1.30 per contract while $AAPL traded at $174.78
|
Now, it is possible that this BID SIDE activity was a new position wherein someone shorted, or sold to open, those contracts. However, given the context of that afternoon, it seemed more likely that this was the prior volume being closed out. How can we know for sure? Look at the Volume and Open Interest. Even though a total of 7,517 contracts transacted on April 11th, only 1,689 contracts stayed open into the next day. This shows us that not all of the volume on the 11th was new positioning. This is a day trade, in-and-out.
This trader exited their position around 2:30 to 2:35pm on the same day they opened their position. From their initial average entry of $0.69 per contract while $AAPL traded at $171.09, they closed the position at $1.30 per contract. This netted our trader a profit of +88.4% in just a few short hours, and stands as a prime example of a successful intraday momentum trade.
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Borzak
Bronze Baron of the Realm
- 24,610
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Had to deal with Fidelity for the second time via phone. They have earned a customer so far. Same as last time. An actual real live person that english was their native language. Said it would take him about 5 minutes to look into it. 30 seconds later it was done. Also odd was I didn't hear 40 other people in the background talking loudly which is normal nowdays. The first time I was Joe Blow nobody and had nothing in that account yet.
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ExGladius
Potato del Grande
- 41
- -159
Jesus, everything in here is so overly complicated and mind numbing at the same time. Just like every bit of overly complicated nonsense "training" I've unfortunately paid for over the last 20 years. It took me a long time to figure out most of it was needlessly convoluted crap developed by people who had no real skill at cutting through to the important essence of a thing.
How about keeping it simple?
Keep your focus on only the top few (3, maybe 4) stocks showing the very best movement each moment, and each day. I've recorded the numbers, and I have the data...6-10 times per year, the best stock of the day goes up over 500% during the day (and a couple of these will be up 1000-2000%). Almost every single month 3-4 stocks go up over 100% during the day. Almost no week passes without a decent number of stocks going up 60-100% each week. Very rarely does a day pass where multiple stocks don't go up at least 30%. Focus on the best and ignore the rest.
Hell, if you only focused on the very best stock of the day at any given time, this would work. There are only 250 trading days in a year. Imagine that you were limited to ONLY trading THE best stock of the day each day (by % gain from the open), for a year. You think you could make money trading that way when you'd be looking EVERY TIME at the 8 stocks that go over 500%, the 35 of them that go up 100-300%, the 150 of them that go up over 60%, and the 1000 stocks that make it over 30% from the open?
Yeah, I think you could make that work.
You're looking for an edge? Maybe try keeping it simple and actually use the incredible edge that the simple stock screener gives you to see what is showing the VERY BEST MOVEMENT each and every single day. Do you really need more than that?
(Caveat: I only remembered after the fact of posting this that I came slumming into an "investing" thread. I guess I'll leave this here though, since there may be some in here who might decide trading, rather than investing, sounds right for them. To each his own.)
How about keeping it simple?
Keep your focus on only the top few (3, maybe 4) stocks showing the very best movement each moment, and each day. I've recorded the numbers, and I have the data...6-10 times per year, the best stock of the day goes up over 500% during the day (and a couple of these will be up 1000-2000%). Almost every single month 3-4 stocks go up over 100% during the day. Almost no week passes without a decent number of stocks going up 60-100% each week. Very rarely does a day pass where multiple stocks don't go up at least 30%. Focus on the best and ignore the rest.
Hell, if you only focused on the very best stock of the day at any given time, this would work. There are only 250 trading days in a year. Imagine that you were limited to ONLY trading THE best stock of the day each day (by % gain from the open), for a year. You think you could make money trading that way when you'd be looking EVERY TIME at the 8 stocks that go over 500%, the 35 of them that go up 100-300%, the 150 of them that go up over 60%, and the 1000 stocks that make it over 30% from the open?
Yeah, I think you could make that work.
You're looking for an edge? Maybe try keeping it simple and actually use the incredible edge that the simple stock screener gives you to see what is showing the VERY BEST MOVEMENT each and every single day. Do you really need more than that?
(Caveat: I only remembered after the fact of posting this that I came slumming into an "investing" thread. I guess I'll leave this here though, since there may be some in here who might decide trading, rather than investing, sounds right for them. To each his own.)
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Tmac
Adventurer
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The_Black_Log Foler
Stock Pals Senior Vice President
- 43,767
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
- 36,337
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It's not complicated at all. If you're 99% of people, invest in an index fund that tracks the broad market.
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Or start there, and as your brain wraps itself around more complex trading topics you start to dabble and then later swim in those waters...
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Tmac
Adventurer
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Just watching the candles, thinking it’ll land between $50k-$60k.
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Zog
Blackwing Lair Raider
- 1,727
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Blazin , TSLA dipping in the 140s, iirc this was the top of the range where you said you’d double down (correct me wrong). You eyeing it?
I wonder what Cathy is planning here.
Tsla has open patents on everything they do.
Tsla will devalue long term to just another auto manufacturer when everything they bring to the market can just freely be copied.
The cybertruck alone should give everyone pause for at least another few years.
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Palum
what Suineg set it to
- 23,389
- 33,511
TSLA has little upside right now.
Major pullback on EV adoption.
Stalling economy.
Weak electrical infrastructure spending.
Increasing electrical energy costs.
FSD failed to meet promises.
Robotaxis no one cares.
Cyber truck kinda pointless waste of time.
Dumb roadster waste of time.
Musk spending most of his time on X and SpaceX.
Complete inability to pivot to hybrids.
Building resentment from leftist/green car buyers against brand because of Musk.
Domination by China in cheap EV market.
Plummeting resale values due to ending leases and overproduction.
Overvalued like 5-10x compared to any car company.
What exactly does Tesla have going for it besides promises that quite work out? It's still valued as a tech company.
Major pullback on EV adoption.
Stalling economy.
Weak electrical infrastructure spending.
Increasing electrical energy costs.
FSD failed to meet promises.
Robotaxis no one cares.
Cyber truck kinda pointless waste of time.
Dumb roadster waste of time.
Musk spending most of his time on X and SpaceX.
Complete inability to pivot to hybrids.
Building resentment from leftist/green car buyers against brand because of Musk.
Domination by China in cheap EV market.
Plummeting resale values due to ending leases and overproduction.
Overvalued like 5-10x compared to any car company.
What exactly does Tesla have going for it besides promises that quite work out? It's still valued as a tech company.
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Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Correspondent / Stock Pals CEO
- 75,329
- 148,358
Got this from the unusual whales newsletter and thought it was worth posting bc it's a deeper "how to" than we typically get here on options.
The trade we’ll be covering today occurred on April 11th, 2024. During the morning, Apple $AAPL was trading between $167 per share and $168 per share. Around 10:30am Central Time, $AAPL began trending up. This break through the upside of the chop is where our trader’s story begins. As $AAPL broke through the wall at $169, we noted significant activity on the $185 Call contract for 5/3/2024.
While $AAPL traded at $171.09 per share, 1,000 contracts of the $185 C 05/03/2024 transacted at once, for an average price of $0.65 per contract, catching the breakout as $AAPL pushed through $69 per share. Shortly after, the position continued building with another 500 contracts hitting the tape at an average fill of $0.69. As $AAPL continued trending higher, contracts kept coming in.
Between 12:13 and 12:26pm Central, another 916 contracts came in at fills ranging from $0.65 to $0.77 per contract. By 1:00pm Central, this position had grown to well over 2,200 contracts. All the while, $AAPL continued to trend up.
Above, we can see where the position began building, and where it grew, all within a short 20 minute timespan. It’s clear both from the timing of the contract, and on the chart above, that this position was instantly profitable. And you can see that $AAPL certainly didn’t stop rising all the way through the end of the session. At around 2:30pm Central Time, we noted two large transactions on the contract at the BID side.
This transaction brought the total daily volume up to over 7,000. However, remember, we saw positions building on the ASK side all afternoon up until this point. The first transaction here contained over 1,000 contracts, at the bid, for an average fill of $1.30 per contract while $AAPL traded at $174.78
Now, it is possible that this BID SIDE activity was a new position wherein someone shorted, or sold to open, those contracts. However, given the context of that afternoon, it seemed more likely that this was the prior volume being closed out. How can we know for sure? Look at the Volume and Open Interest. Even though a total of 7,517 contracts transacted on April 11th, only 1,689 contracts stayed open into the next day. This shows us that not all of the volume on the 11th was new positioning. This is a day trade, in-and-out.
This trader exited their position around 2:30 to 2:35pm on the same day they opened their position. From their initial average entry of $0.69 per contract while $AAPL traded at $171.09, they closed the position at $1.30 per contract. This netted our trader a profit of +88.4% in just a few short hours, and stands as a prime example of a successful intraday momentum trade.
I love reading stuff like this.
I was playing that same trade at that exact time. But made only $700
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