Investing General Discussion

ExGladius

ExGladius

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Captain Suave said:
"Only buy winners!"

Holy fuck, how did no one think of that?
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Show me the people in this thread who are limiting their focus to trying it. Show me that you're doing it. I am, and have, and will continue to show it...in Aryasar's trading thread, one that intimidates and confuses tmac, since he can't seem to learn anything in there, by his own admission. Go there, if you want to see how someone who knows what he's talking about...certainly moreso than you...does things.

My post was about focusing only on the best, with a clear vision of what an edge really is and how it can be used. Go ahead and look for your winners in the stocks that move 1% on a good day. Meanwhile, I'll make 37% on my cash accounts in 13 days, with my buying power restricted to settled funds, and without any margin leverage at all. lol
 
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Araysar

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Palum said:
TSLA has little upside right now.

Major pullback on EV adoption.
Stalling economy.
Weak electrical infrastructure spending.
Increasing electrical energy costs.
FSD failed to meet promises.
Robotaxis no one cares.
Cyber truck kinda pointless waste of time.
Dumb roadster waste of time.
Musk spending most of his time on X and SpaceX.
Complete inability to pivot to hybrids.
Building resentment from leftist/green car buyers against brand because of Musk.
Domination by China in cheap EV market.
Plummeting resale values due to ending leases and overproduction.
Overvalued like 5-10x compared to any car company.

What exactly does Tesla have going for it besides promises that quite work out? It's still valued as a tech company.
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It's got Cathie. And sometimes that's all you need.
 
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C

Captain Suave

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ExGladius said:
Show me the people in this thread who are limiting their focus to trying it. Show me that you're doing it. I am, and have, and will continue to show it...in Aryasar's trading thread, somewhere that intimidates and confuses tmac, since he can't seem to learn anything in there, by his own admission. Go there, if you want to see how someone who knows what he's talking about...certainly moreso than you...does things.
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Burden of proof is on you; this doesn't pass the sniff test. If it were possible to reliably crank out returns from following a tiny number of the best-performing stocks in a short time window (which are definitionally only possible to identify in retrospect), the HFT folks would have long since automated the process and driven it to zero.
 
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Blazin

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Palum said:
TSLA has little upside right now.

Major pullback on EV adoption.
Stalling economy.
Weak electrical infrastructure spending.
Increasing electrical energy costs.
FSD failed to meet promises.
Robotaxis no one cares.
Cyber truck kinda pointless waste of time.
Dumb roadster waste of time.
Musk spending most of his time on X and SpaceX.
Complete inability to pivot to hybrids.
Building resentment from leftist/green car buyers against brand because of Musk.
Domination by China in cheap EV market.
Plummeting resale values due to ending leases and overproduction.
Overvalued like 5-10x compared to any car company.

What exactly does Tesla have going for it besides promises that quite work out? It's still valued as a tech company.
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This is why I'm leaning bullish. Literally everybody even knuckledraggers could write up this list. It's so obvious. None of it is insightful. That means sentiment is very low. Same kind of list we wrote up for DIS 30% ago. They didnt improve or address any issue on their list, sentiment simply bottomed. Same for oil stocks years ago. FB, NFLX, META the list goes on. TSLA won't have to fix a single thing on Palum's list to go up 50%, it just needs sentiment to get washed out.

Having said that Foler Foler the chart right now is a falling knife if it can't hold this level its at right now we are going to push to low 130s pretty fast. Finger is on the trigger, just need a few more smart people here to talk about how dumb it would be.
 
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Lightning Lord Rule

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Blazin said:
This is why I'm leaning bullish. Literally everybody even knuckledraggers could write up this list. It's so obvious. None of it is insightful. That means sentiment is very low. Same kind of list we wrote up for DIS 30% ago. They didnt improve or address any issue on their list, sentiment simply bottomed. Same for oil stocks years ago. FB, NFLX, META the list goes on. TSLA won't have to fix a single thing on Palum's list to go up 50%, it just needs sentiment to get washed out.

Having said that Foler Foler the chart right now is a falling knife if it can't hold this level its at right now we are going to push to low 130s pretty fast. Finger is on the trigger, just need a few more smart people here to talk about how dumb it would be.
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We're all just one big Costanza to you, aren't we?

costanza.gif
 
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ExGladius

ExGladius

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Captain Suave said:
Burden of proof is on you; this doesn't pass the sniff test. If it were possible to reliably crank out returns from following a tiny number of the best-performing stocks in a short time window (which are definitionally only possible to identify in retrospect), the HFT folks would have long since automated the process and driven it to zero.
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Like I said, leave this Investing and Snoring thread, and look in Araysar's Trading and Shitposting thread and sniff all you like. I'm showing my trades there, and offering explanations. Maybe you'll learn something, unlike Tmac the Genius.
 
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Araysar

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Blazin said:
This is why I'm leaning bullish. Literally everybody even knuckledraggers could write up this list. It's so obvious. None of it is insightful. That means sentiment is very low. Same kind of list we wrote up for DIS 30% ago. They didnt improve or address any issue on their list, sentiment simply bottomed. Same for oil stocks years ago. FB, NFLX, META the list goes on. TSLA won't have to fix a single thing on Palum's list to go up 50%, it just needs sentiment to get washed out.

Having said that Foler Foler the chart right now is a falling knife if it can't hold this level its at right now we are going to push to low 130s pretty fast. Finger is on the trigger, just need a few more smart people here to talk about how dumb it would be.
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Bro at the very least DIS shitcanned their CEO who presided over live remake of little hammerhead and the 3rd SW trilogy and brought the old one back
 
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Araysar

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Its insane to think that $500B iconic car company headed by an obsessive entrepreneur will all of a sudden just.... fade away.

True, you can be bullish just based on that thought alone.

But that is a lot of headwinds they are facing. Say what you will about Palum Palum 's list, but none of it is wrong. The big one I think is Elon buying X. Not only did that take his primary attention from Tesla, but it put his brand evangelists, the retards who do all his press for free (latte liberals, environmentalists, zoomers, etc.) squarely against him on the political field. You can probably expect TSLA stock to keep stagnating until that X/TSLA dynamic changes which could go on for years
 
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Burnem Wizfyre

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Blazin said:
This is why I'm leaning bullish. Literally everybody even knuckledraggers could write up this list. It's so obvious. None of it is insightful. That means sentiment is very low. Same kind of list we wrote up for DIS 30% ago. They didnt improve or address any issue on their list, sentiment simply bottomed. Same for oil stocks years ago. FB, NFLX, META the list goes on. TSLA won't have to fix a single thing on Palum's list to go up 50%, it just needs sentiment to get washed out.

Having said that Foler Foler the chart right now is a falling knife if it can't hold this level its at right now we are going to push to low 130s pretty fast. Finger is on the trigger, just need a few more smart people here to talk about how dumb it would be.
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Here let me help, everything in my fiber tells me to drop 20k on TSLA right now, but I won’t, you should because I’m to dumb to do it.
 
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Foler

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Blazin said:
This is why I'm leaning bullish. Literally everybody even knuckledraggers could write up this list. It's so obvious. None of it is insightful. That means sentiment is very low. Same kind of list we wrote up for DIS 30% ago. They didnt improve or address any issue on their list, sentiment simply bottomed. Same for oil stocks years ago. FB, NFLX, META the list goes on. TSLA won't have to fix a single thing on Palum's list to go up 50%, it just needs sentiment to get washed out.

Having said that Foler Foler the chart right now is a falling knife if it can't hold this level its at right now we are going to push to low 130s pretty fast. Finger is on the trigger, just need a few more smart people here to talk about how dumb it would be.
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Love to hear. I may jump in if it hits 130ish
 
ExGladius

ExGladius

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Captain Suave said:
Burden of proof is on you; this doesn't pass the sniff test. If it were possible to reliably crank out returns from following a tiny number of the best-performing stocks in a short time window (which are definitionally only possible to identify in retrospect), the HFT folks would have long since automated the process and driven it to zero.
Click to expand...
Let me address your contention that "the best performing stocks in a short time window" are only identifiable in retrospect.

Try thinking about that for a minute, without your obvious knee-jerk reactions in your prior posts. If a stock is up 65% from the open, and the next most volatile is only up 25% from the open, and AAPL is up .75% from the open, do you think you'd be able to pick which is "best" to trade? Not invest in...trade. I think you could manage to pick between those just fine. I believe in you.

So maybe, just maybe, you aren't on the right track if you can, in all seriousness, say that this judgement can only be made when the first stock has later gone up 245% on the day, the market has closed, and you're sitting there with your thumb up your ass having done nothing at all with it because "you can only tell in retrospect." Well the market's closed, and I guess you can tell now. Congratulations. You're a winner in your book.
 
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Araysar

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ExGladius said:
Let me address your contention that "the best performing stocks in a short time window" are only identifiable in retrospect.

Try thinking about that for a minute, without your obvious knee-jerk reactions in your prior posts. If a stock is up 65% from the open, and the next most volatile is only up 25% from the open, and AAPL is up .75% from the open, do you think you'd be able to pick which is "best" to trade? Not invest in...trade. I think you could manage to pick between those just fine. I believe in you.

So maybe, just maybe, you aren't on the right track if you can, in all seriousness, say that this judgement can only be made when the first stock has later gone up 245% on the day, the market has closed, and you're sitting there with your thumb up your ass having done nothing at all with it because "you can only tell in retrospect." Well the market's closed, and I guess you can tell now. Congratulations. You're a winner in your book.
Click to expand...

Not to mention there are a lot of tools to help you.
1713465710603.png
 
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Palum

Palum

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Blazin said:
This is why I'm leaning bullish. Literally everybody even knuckledraggers could write up this list. It's so obvious. None of it is insightful. That means sentiment is very low. Same kind of list we wrote up for DIS 30% ago. They didnt improve or address any issue on their list, sentiment simply bottomed. Same for oil stocks years ago. FB, NFLX, META the list goes on. TSLA won't have to fix a single thing on Palum's list to go up 50%, it just needs sentiment to get washed out.

Having said that Foler Foler the chart right now is a falling knife if it can't hold this level its at right now we are going to push to low 130s pretty fast. Finger is on the trigger, just need a few more smart people here to talk about how dumb it would be.
Click to expand...
While I realize we live in a hype economy, there are reasons to believe they aren't hyped that much right now. Despite their middling performance compared to their valuation, the biggest risk IMO is the regime stooges lining up to take shots at Musk.
 
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Blazin

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Palum said:
While I realize we live in a hype economy, there are reasons to believe they aren't hyped that much right now. Despite their middling performance compared to their valuation, the biggest risk IMO is the regime stooges lining up to take shots at Musk.
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Not sure you're following my argument, I'm not disagreeing. But we all know they are out to get him. When everybody knows a thing it is indeed priced in. Over very long periods fundamentals will drive price...maybe. For the most part the stock market is a sentiment weighing machine. At some point you reach a zenith of "I can see the dangers" and a stock stops going down and not because it fixed any fundamental.

THey don't always go back up. Is this company a going concern is still a boolean check for any trade or investment. Paypal had sentiment wash out does that mean its going back to 200+, so far no, but it has stopped going down and for quite awhile.

Tesla is a hype machine, you're too inclined to ask "will Tesla execute on X?" and that's really irrelevant. The question is will investors get excited about something that "Might" occur in the future. If the answer is yes then sentiment can turn. Large cap stocks however have an advantage over others in regard to sentiment wash outs and that is they are recipients of steady passive inflows due to index investing. WHich means remove sellers-> stock goes up, even if nobody wakes up each day super excited to buy X Big Cap company.

THis is a very important concept to understand, as traders especially lock onto a narrative and then they fail to see a pivot in stock behavior because their narrative didnt change and it had been working so well. A LOT of people don't grasp this and it's a major hinderance to making money.

For those interested go back and look at the ConcernList for Meta at its lows or Netflix then really consider what has changed. Anyone who wanted to be negative on those bullet points very easily still could be but they be wrong by hundreds of %.
 
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Seananigans

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ExGladius said:
Let me address your contention that "the best performing stocks in a short time window" are only identifiable in retrospect.

Try thinking about that for a minute, without your obvious knee-jerk reactions in your prior posts. If a stock is up 65% from the open, and the next most volatile is only up 25% from the open, and AAPL is up .75% from the open, do you think you'd be able to pick which is "best" to trade? Not invest in...trade. I think you could manage to pick between those just fine. I believe in you.

So maybe, just maybe, you aren't on the right track if you can, in all seriousness, say that this judgement can only be made when the first stock has later gone up 245% on the day, the market has closed, and you're sitting there with your thumb up your ass having done nothing at all with it because "you can only tell in retrospect." Well the market's closed, and I guess you can tell now. Congratulations. You're a winner in your book.
Click to expand...

Describe your exact method you use to identify these stocks, when during a trading day you do this, etc. You’ve been fairly vague thus far, hard to fault a knee jerk response in that case.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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MSFT sitting about 1% above its 100-DMA. This level of support is historically very strong for MSFT. The last time it fell below was Aug 2023. Earnings in 7 days. It needed to let some air out in my opinion. Its PE had gotten pretty lofty and its still pretty high even with this move downward. That being said, if you were looking for an entry, this $400 - $404 zone would be a good entry purchase assuming its a long term buy and hold. There is a ton of air between the 100-DMA and the 200-DMA and blown earnings or some other bad news could easily see a fall down to the 200 at $367 and this needs to be prepared for. That scenario is a load up situation but for now this could be the best entry price we see if it gets the bounce off the 100-DMA and then hits on earnings.

Full disclosure, I am long MSFT and added today

1713469722884.png


1713469924645.png
 
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