Investing General Discussion

The model I built suggests we are still in neutral risk territory, down from topping signals back in October.
This suggests there is still room yet for further market growth this year. Tom lee (among others) seems to agree and I think his reasoning makes sense.

While I haven't had the model for even a year yet, it called the exact bottom April 8th and the latest top in October. I will continue to trust it - otherwise why have it?

Just my 2 cents. I'm not really interested in timing the market so much as catching bottoms which are easier to predict than tops.

Tredge said:

The model I built suggests we are still in neutral risk territory, down from topping signals back in October.
This suggests there is still room yet for further market growth this year. Tom lee (among others) seems to agree and I think his reasoning makes sense.

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Tom Lee was also relentlessly calling for $200k+ Bitcoin by end of year. He finally had to change his tune to... "I think it can make it back above $100k by end of year..."

Blazin said:

If IBIT doesn't close this week strong, I'm going to start trading around the idea we are in an extended bear market and much lower lows are a possibility. I'm not making predictions, just trying to recognize the kind of tape we are in and adjust decision making in that framework because that is what has the highest probability of success/avoiding capital loss.

A strong bounce and resumption of trend has grown to be unlikely, the price behavior does not reflect countertrend characteristics. There are declines that are opportunities they are just short term flashes counter to the stronger trend, the fuel that sends you higher. We made a stand where you'd expect, it is has now wasted that energy and hasn't been able to gain momentum, the next step in that scenario is to flush to a new low and try again.

The chart is going to take months now to fix and it becomes a safer bet to buy bullish momentum rather than fish for a bottom. We haven't had a close above the 200d since Nov 3 and it's been a real pussy about it, SPY would have at least returned to the scene of the crime before rolling over like a bitch.

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This is where my comment about the crypto thread comes in.

You're talking about IBIT and an extended bear market, and I get confused what we're talking about. But then you also mention the SPY, so now I think you're talking about equities markets and not crypto? So are you saying a bear for crypto? A bear for everything? What the fuck is going on?

Blazin said:

I would have said leading not that long ago, evidence has mounted towards decoupling.

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Which should be seen as a good thing by the crypto bros. They should be excited about Bitcoin going into the toilet.

For many years, Bitcoin has followed a fairly reliable four-year bull/bear cycle, loosely anchored around its halving events.

Each cycle comes with its own set of narratives. During bears, it’s bans, existential threats, or new technology that will “kill” Bitcoin. During bulls, it’s institutional adoption, digital gold, or hedging against fiat collapse. The stories change, but the pattern has been remarkably consistent.

Smart money always ignored the narratives and just focused on the cycle. They tracked it, bought during the bear, and sold during the bull. Repeated each cycle.

I was pretty late to the game, so I missed the first few cycles. But when I made my last BTC purchases in late 2023, I made a note to sell by July 2025, since the next bear cycle was due to start shortly after that. Turns out that was a pretty accurate prediction- or so it seems right now.

Interestingly, each cycle has weaker percentage returns and less violent drawdowns. At the same time, a new narrative has emerged around regulatory clarity, institutional participation, and especially spot ETFs. The claim is that these forces have fundamentally altered Bitcoin’s behavior and may have broken the traditional cycle altogether.

That may be true, but at the moment it still looks like we’re entering a bear phase, which historically lasts 12–18 months.

My view is that these structural changes haven’t eliminated the cycle, but they’ve smoothed it out. The bear may still be here, but that doesn’t necessarily mean dramatic downside from current levels. It may also be shorter in duration, with new all-time highs emerging by mid-2026.

The trade-off is obvious: the same forces that blunt the downside also cap the upside. A world with ETFs and institutional balance sheets is far less likely to deliver sudden moves from $150k to $500k. Volatility works both ways, and now it’s being dampened on both sides.

Fed doesn’t control the long end of the yield curve, which mortgage rates track. There’s been a lot of unhappy home buyers that have been frustrated over the last year of Fed cuts and stubbornly high mortgage rates.

Bank of Emergency has cut far more than the US (five), yet they also hit multi decade high 30yr bond rates.

Most home purchasers simply don’t understand this.