Investing General Discussion

Locnar

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Ok, I might have asked this before but I am struggling a bit with my index fund allocation. I have VTSAX (Total Stock Market, 74%), VTIAX (International, 20%), and VBTLX (Total Bond, 4%) in my portfolio because I am an amateur and wanted to go with the boglehead 3 fund allocation. The problem is that I have had pretty awful results from international and bond funds for my entire investing career. They used to be bellwethers to 'balance' the US stock market but it seems like international funds have been dogs for 20 years as the endemic failures of their monetary and economic policies have been exposed. The bond funds seem to be dogs since we hit this 'new normal' of super low interest rates and a Fed that is terrified of bringing them back up to even nominal levels. I just turned 39 so I have about two decades left of investing, 15 of which I believe should be trying to maximize gains. Should I jump out of the bond and international to put it all into the Total Stock Market fund? It is technically diversifying since it is a bunch of different stocks and it seems to me like the other two funds are both going to go in the same direction if our market takes a dive.

If you are just gonna index, i'd split it between s/p and nasdaq and call it a day. In my retirement account I watched my former extended market and foreign stuff just lag over time, I looked at past performance going back years and quickly rectified that issue. Bet on America for now.
 
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LachiusTZ

Rogue Deathwalker Box
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Was driving this morning, and thought "What if Tesla falls after split"...

Lol
 
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ToeMissile

Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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I bought 3 shares at 1600 with the plan to sell after battery day. Thinking ill sell 10 and hold 5 instead though.
 

Sanrith Descartes

Von Clippowicz
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TSLA day high is $497. So effectively people are buying TSLA at $2500 a share at Friday's price. Btw, Friday's price is today's price. Clown world. I looked at selling Puts on TSLA but the implied volatility is sky high. :mad:

edit: Forgot to add congratz to all of you riding the TSLA train. Choo-choo!
 

Sanrith Descartes

Von Clippowicz
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TSLA intra-day volume = 72 million shares traded
AAPL intra-day volume = 134 million shares traded

Fucking clown world.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Von Clippowicz
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This might explain some of it. I thought fractional trading was pretty universal with brokerages but apparently it isnt. These splits might have encouraged folks who cant fractional trade to be hitting the water fountain. I honestly thought this stuff was everywhere because it is such a basic tool.

1598893081838.png
 

Sanrith Descartes

Von Clippowicz
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2/3rds of the Nasdaq : "God damned today really sucks."

AAPL, TSLA, AMZN, NVDA : "Don't be sad friends. Hop on our backs guys, we can carry you. Its only a few more basis points to a 1% up day"
 

Sanrith Descartes

Von Clippowicz
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AAPL vs TSLA over the last 30 days. I circled the two dates the splits were announced.
AAPL +25% since the announcement
TSLA +70% since the announcement

1598896496348.png
 
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Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Correspondent / Stock Pals CEO
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New price target for TSLA is $566



ByJoey Klender
Posted on August 31, 2020
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received its first post-split price target increase today after Argus Research hiked its outlook for the electric automaker to $566 from $378.
The price target adjustment comes after TSLA shares had their prices adjusted this morning following the planned split, which Tesla announced on August 11th.
Before the split occurred on August 31st, Argus analyst Bill Selesky held a price target of $1,888 for TSLA shares with a “Buy” rating. After adjusting this, the previous target would equate to $378. Now, Selesky has indicated that $566 is more reasonable, according to reports.
 

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Correspondent / Stock Pals CEO
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Interesting take: I kind of agree with it, yet the valuation is still outrageous. But he makes an excellent point. TSLA has a polished, valuable and highly regarded product in an industry where EV will be de facto standard within 10 years.

Meanwhile I cant buy an EV from any auto manufacturer than isnt an embarrassing piece of shit or some EV/ICE frankenstein like the Volt.


Is Tesla Pulling Off A 'Business Miracle'?
12:25 pm ET August 31, 2020 (Benzinga) Print
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares are up nearly another 10% on Monday following a five-for-one stock split and are now up 969% overall in the past year as traders continue to buy shares of the EV maker at any price.

Loup Ventures Managing Partner and former sell-side analyst Gene Munster said in a blog post this weekend that Tesla appears to be pulling off a miracle by jumping seven or eight years ahead of its EV competitors.

What He Said: In the first half of 2020, Tesla accounted for about 80% of the total EV market share in the U.S., 15% share in Europe and about 20% share in China.

“Over the next few years, it’s unlikely that traditional auto will close the EV market share gap, as producing EVs is more complicated than producing traditional cars, and producing autonomous vehicles is significantly more complicated than producing EVs,” Munster wrote.

Gap Widening? Each new technology Tesla brings to the market will widen the gap between Tesla and its competitors even further, according to Munster.

“Tesla’s 7-8 year head start is looking more and more like a business miracle that very few companies ever achieve,” Munster said.

In addition to its existing first-mover advantage, Munster said the COVID-19 pandemic has also helped Tesla in two key ways.

First, some of Tesla’s competitors have delayed the launch of new EV models until 2021. Given those developments, Munster is estimating Tesla will enter 2022 with between 70% and 80% market share in the U.S. EV market.

Second, the pandemic has sped up the long-term shift in retail from offline to online sales.

A recent survey from CarGurus found that the percentage of Americans willing to buy a car online jumped from 32% before the outbreak to 61% in April. Munster said Tesla is the “king” of online auto sales and has recently added shopping features such as Tesla Direct Drop and an Apple Pay option.

Benzinga’s Take: Tesla is clearly dominating an EV market that is virtually free from competitors at this point. For Tesla to maintain anything close to its current valuation in the long term, it will need to maintain the same level of domination once roughly 20 new EV models produced by other auto companies hit the market for the first time before the end of 2021.