Investing General Discussion

Blazin

Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Also, eventually there will come a point where treasury yields (with there near zero risk) will exceed what equities can provide (say like the SPY dividend yield) with higher risk. At some point bonds become a more attractive investment than equities to a certain segment of investors.
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This is 100% true, any fear of this right now however is premature. It's why I would not take this current rate scare too seriously, it his however a hint of what is to come. Last time the market struggled when rates where in the mid 3s, and this bull run like ALL bull runs will eventually be halted when the Fed is forced to begin choking it out .

But as Supreme Chancellor Powell says "they are not thinking about, thinking about raising rates"
 
Furry

Furry

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Nester said:
you can. ! Is acceptable.
Example: Fuckin Eh! (Usually followed by “Bro”)

Jackie: if how much silver is in that photo? Pretty cool imo!
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I grew up and that area, and you'd only say Fuckin Eh? if you were confused about what made it so fuckin.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Capture.png


Want to take this bear market forming in bonds to talk about the kind of chart we don't want to see in stocks and how markets can give clues about when to change strategy.

1. This point in July 2020 is the first sign to start paying more attention. The market corrects off the spring time high but then is unable to set a new high, forming a double top. This is not a panic sell everything. It's a "start paying attention" moment.
2. At this point price has fallen below the 50d (blue line) and twice is unable to get back on top of it. Now our concern is increasing, start trimming...
3. By this point concern has intensified as price has now lost the 200d (red line) and is unable to get on top of it after two rally attempts. For me this is a I'm complete out moment. Some would hold longer because the 200d is still increasing and it may just be a consolidation but I'm willing to give up the few percentage points to wait till the price action proves it by staying above. In this whole process the earlier into signals you sell the more you are going to lose alpha to fake outs, the correct answer speaks to people's individual goals and risk tolerance.
4. By this time in Dec the 200d moving average has now flattened out and is starting to decline, not at all a good sign. Maybe it's consolidation, and that's a possibility and if it is the support around $153 should hold.
5. By this marker the market gaps below the support then on a rally can't recover it. You are now in owe shit mode and should get out completely


If this ends up a real bear market for bonds nobody is going to look back and be pissed they sold at $150 if we go back down to the $115 range. Market timing doesn't work because people want to sell the very top. That is just gambling, and will constantly be wrong. Accept that some tolerance of giveback is necessary to make sure you capture most of the move. And when things turn against you, you will be out and protected from the lion share of the decline.

At some point in the future the equity market chart could morph into something like this and that is the time to really start paying attention. There are always clues if you are looking in the right places.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Blazin said:
Bond still searching for a bottom, tech going to keep spinning it's wheels until rates settle down. If we go and touch 1.5% on the ten yr that could trigger a little panic.
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Ah come on, stop tickling my balls. It just went to 1.494% before pulling back
 
LachiusTZ

LachiusTZ

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Blazin said:
View attachment 337787

Want to take this bear market forming in bonds to talk about the kind of chart we don't want to see in stocks and how markets can give clues about when to change strategy.

1. This point in July 2020 is the first sign to start paying more attention. The market corrects off the spring time high but then is unable to set a new high, forming a double top. This is not a panic sell everything. It's a "start paying attention" moment.
2. At this point price has fallen below the 50d (blue line) and twice is unable to get back on top of it. Now our concern is increasing, start trimming...
3. By this point concern has intensified as price has now lost the 200d (red line) and is unable to get on top of it after two rally attempts. For me this is a I'm complete out moment. Some would hold longer because the 200d is still increasing and it may just be a consolidation but I'm willing to give up the few percentage points to wait till the price action proves it by staying above. In this whole process the earlier into signals you sell the more you are going to lose alpha to fake outs, the correct answer speaks to people's individual goals and risk tolerance.
4. By this time in Dec the 200d moving average has now flattened out and is starting to decline, not at all a good sign. Maybe it's consolidation, and that's a possibility and if it is the support around $153 should hold.
5. By this marker the market gaps below the support then on a rally can't recover it. You are now in owe shit mode and should get out completely


If this ends up a real bear market for bonds nobody is going to look back and be pissed they sold at $150 if we go back down to the $115 range. Market timing doesn't work because people want to sell the very top. That is just gambling, and will constantly be wrong. Accept that some tolerance of giveback is necessary to make sure you capture most of the move. And when things turn against you, you will be out and protected from the lion share of the decline.

At some point in the future the equity market chart could morph into something like this and that is the time to really start paying attention. There are always clues if you are looking in the right places.
Click to expand...

I've fought this several times, while lying to myself.

"I'm down a bit, when it gets back up I'll take some profit" then I don't.

I'm down 10% in all my accounts over the past week, and tell myself if it regains some of that I'll sell, but I prolly wouldn't.

Even while thinking about selling now, which is odd. That I would seriously consider selling while losing, then hold while regaining.

I know the psychology behind it, but it's still strange to watch myself do this repeatedly.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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LachiusTZ said:
I've fought this several times, while lying to myself.

"I'm down a bit, when it gets back up I'll take some profit" then I don't.

I'm down 10% in all my accounts over the past week, and tell myself if it regains some of that I'll sell, but I prolly wouldn't.

Even while thinking about selling now, which is odd. That I would seriously consider selling while losing, then hold while regaining.

I know the psychology behind it, but it's still strange to watch myself do this repeatedly.
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Well not all declines are equal, there is no marker on that chart saying you should sell the decline May. Corrections are normal and healthy in an up trend and you can't let fear of them destroy your potential for sustained and bigger returns.

This is not easy stuff, some people learn that but then go too far and think every decline should be ignored. The devil is in the details, corrections in strong uptrends that hold support levels are very positive and should be welcomed. Waning trends and persistent weakness however should not be ignored.
 
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Nester

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Furry said:
I grew up and that area, and you'd only say Fuckin Eh? if you were confused about what made it so fuckin.
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Canada is an area?

It can be used as acknowledgement and agreement instead of “you’re damn right” or “hell ya” or my favorite "fucking rights"


“her bro, wanna out go for a rip? Fucken eh!”

Example

 
Arden

Arden

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MO up .3%!

finance.yahoo.com

Altria Is Undervalued With A 7.77% Dividend Yield

As markets continue to trade near all-time highs, it is relatively challenging to find attractively valued or undervalued stocks. Altria (MO) is one stock that might be worth considering from a valuation perspective. On Jan. 28, Altria reported results for Q4 2020 and provided guidance for...
finance.yahoo.com finance.yahoo.com
 
Borzak

Borzak

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Just think show shit the markets would be if the feds weren't printing out money nonstop.
 
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Hateyou

Hateyou

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fris said:
Hint, this isn't free for some of those idiots lol
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The entertainment is free for me!

Man every single position I have is red today. PLTR is the worst.

Also I fucking knew I should’ve sold NVDA when it was in $600s. Another one of those lazy days not paying enough attention.
 
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