Investing General Discussion

Zog

Zog

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Amd is barely a buck above its 200D so for at least short term, this will be the bottom of the day, pending the apocalypse.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Cross posting. The first PFE data dump just got released. They identified 1,291 possible adverse reactions to the "vax". I wonder why they wanted immunity. Stock down about 25% from the high. Low of the day.

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T

Tirant

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Initiated a JPM position. Got in right at 134. Glad I’ve waited on C!
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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Some trade circle chatter about possible no rate hikes in March. Fairly bearish if that holds true. Basically an admission of a rough future in markets.

Recession?
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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And this friends and neighbors is why you only put a very small percent of capital into risky investments (also why i bugged out of RSX at a small loss).

 
Blazin

Blazin

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What happened to 7 or 8 rate hikes this year! Just have to chuckle how off base wall st talking heads always are.

Market keeps defending ~428, as support it will get weaker and weaker if we can't move away from it. This has all been another great lesson on "why" being a waste of time. We drop from ATH because "rates are climbing" market now begins to undue that move in rates and we are 10-15% off ATHs and are now afraid of Russia which has jack all to do with S&P earnings even if they start throwing nukes. The why is always a waste of time. Don't ever marry a narrative just follow the price action.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
What happened to 7 or 8 rate hikes this year! Just have to chuckle how off base wall st talking heads always are.

Market keeps defending ~428, as support it will get weaker and weaker if we can't move away from it. This has all been another great lesson on "why" being a waste of time. We drop from ATH because "rates are climbing" market now begins to undue that move in rates and we are 10-15% off ATHs and are now afraid of Russia which has jack all to do with S&P earnings even if they start throwing nukes. The why is always a waste of time. Don't ever marry a narrative just follow the price action.
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Thats exactly what a Russian spy would say.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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AAPL declaring it will stop selling in Russia hasnt been exactly good for the markets.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
CRM double beat

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I'm disappointed with the outlook. $4.62/share for 2023 is just not a reason to buy the stock here. I almost took a position pre earnings but it seems appropriately priced right here, don't see the driver to move it higher.

They seem way too bloated on cost side compared to rest of big tech. I had hoped they would start showing some improvement. The EBIT margin is just god awful for a tech firm. They have great sales and I do believe they'll hit the $30B+ next year but the profit they are able to generate out of those sales just doesn't cut it for the premium on the stock. Rev Growth rate may justify the tech premium valuation but their bottom line sure doesn't.

Operating expenses are 73% of revenue vs MSFT at 27%. Some people take that to mean they have a tremendous capacity to grow larger with the existing infrastructure. That is the bull case. You have to believe that they are going to near double revenues without a material change to operating expense. So far that hasn't happened. Benioff has no qualms paying top dollar for acquisitions and seems these acquisitions are what always keep them so bloated. It's part of believing his vision that is going to be a trillion dollar company at the end of the decade.

I like it's position as a company (I loathe their politics) still considering getting this one back into portfolio, need to ponder it more.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
I'm disappointed with the outlook. $4.62/share for 2023 is just not a reason to buy the stock here. I almost took a position pre earnings but it seems appropriately priced right here, don't see the driver to move it higher.

They seem way too bloated on cost side compared to rest of big tech. I had hoped they would start showing some improvement. The EBIT margin is just god awful for a tech firm. They have great sales and I do believe they'll hit the $30B+ next year but the profit they are able to generate out of those sales just doesn't cut it for the premium on the stock. Rev Growth rate may justify the tech premium valuation but their bottom line sure doesn't.

Operating expenses are 73% of revenue vs MSFT at 27%. Some people take that to mean they have a tremendous capacity to grow larger with the existing infrastructure. That is the bull case. You have to believe that they are going to near double revenues without a material change to operating expense. So far that hasn't happened. Benioff has no qualms paying top dollar for acquisitions and seems these acquisitions are what always keep them so bloated. It's part of believing his vision that is going to be a trillion dollar company at the end of the decade.

I like it's position as a company (I loathe their politics) still considering getting this one back into portfolio, need to ponder it more.
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Yeah. I think we are really seeing that post-covid stay home hangover. Im actually ok with companies adjusting their forecasts. Yes it sucks now as air gets let out, but better than getting blown out on a huge miss down the road. I havent added, but I am sitting pat. I had already flipped CRM twice before so this position is all profit from the previous two flips.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Yeah. I think we are really seeing that post-covid stay home hangover. Im actually ok with companies adjusting their forecasts. Yes it sucks now as air gets let out, but better than getting blown out on a huge miss down the road. I havent added, but I am sitting pat. I had already flipped CRM twice before so this position is all profit from the previous two flips.
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I'll likely take a stab again and see if I can make some yield on it selling calls but anything over $230-240 without some margin improvement would have me leaning towards selling.
 
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