Investing General Discussion

Blazin

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<Nazi Janitors>
6,408
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Screenshot 2023-11-07 154538.png

 
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The_Black_Log Foler

Stock Pals Senior Vice President
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Stonks Contest Update
User SPX
Creslin 5067
Gravel 4876
Bandwagon 4875.8
ShakyJake 4750
Blazin 4600
Ravishing 4578
Captain Suave 4551
Fogel 4450
karma 4432
Big Phoenix 4400
Falstaff 4372
Moglyzoke Moogleman 4369
CURRENT 4338
Mist 4321
Jysin 4299
Rais 4203
swayze22 4127
lurkingdirk 4098
Lejina 4050
Aldarion 4019
Omoyga 4016
Kiroy 3788.91
Rod-138 3650
Tmac 3414
Sanrith Descartes 3250
stupidmonkey 2813
Lambourne 2600

Mist and Mogly currently closest with a month and a half to go.
Are you guys using an app for this? Is this real stonks? Curious to maybe get in on it.
 

Blazin

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Are you guys using an app for this? Is this real stonks? Curious to maybe get in on it.
It's just for a unique stonks medal. At the end of December and early Jan we will start the next one where you can submit your guess for year end 2024
 
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The_Black_Log Foler

Stock Pals Senior Vice President
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It's just for a unique stonks medal. At the end of December and early Jan we will start the next one where you can submit your guess for year end 2024
Didn’t we have a contest a some point using some stonk simulator? Everyone was allocated the same x amount and it would run for a quarter or two. It had fish in the name iirc. Would be fun to get that going again.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Pretty sure there is only one EV maker who actually makes money on every EV it sells.

 
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Jysin

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Re EVs: You guys do know that it takes a lot of time and capital to scale up a new car company? The upfront costs are substantial and it takes many years to achieve profitability. Investors like to see demand to scale into. For perspective, Tesla took 17 YEARS to become profitable and that only came a few years ago. You think building manufacturing facilities comes cheap?

What is more shocking to me is the Ford and GM losses. If anyone already has size and scale to figure the process out, it would be them.
 
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Scoresby

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Re EVs: You guys do know that it takes a lot of time and capital to scale up a new car company? The upfront costs are substantial and it takes many years to achieve profitability. Investors like to see demand to scale into. For perspective, Tesla took 17 YEARS to become profitable and that only came a few years ago. You think building manufacturing facilities comes cheap?

What is more shocking to me is the Ford and GM losses. If anyone already has size and scale to figure the process out, it would be them.

Yeah, the major automakers at least can (to some extent) retool existing capital to build these products. That said, it looks like they have overplayed their hands in that regard as EV sales aren't hitting their marks. I suspect the return trip to build ICE vehicles (internal combustion engine) on that equipment isn't a free one, so they're kinda stuck for now. Couple that with the recent UAW shenanigans and it'll be interesting to see how they price these going forward. Considering low demand and an already high price, I would expect them to continue eating it to try and weather the storm while increasing the cost of their conventional ICE vehicles.

I personally think EV is overinflated as is. There is a ton of government subsidy to try and make this attractive as well as all of the regulation that is attempting to force the issue. That said, there aren't ready solutions that make EV objectively better than ICE in many situations (long distance travel, high temp environments, freight hauling). Couple that with the devaluation owners are going to experience due to end-of-life batteries (and the costly disposal/reclamation of those) and unless someone comes up with a pretty major advancement in the next few years to improve range and blunt the devaluation, I don't see how the market will grow much beyond where it is.

IMO these electric startups are gonna eat a lot of shit sandwiches over the next few years and will have a hard time surviving.
 
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Blazin

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Small Caps really not affirming this rally. They have stayed out of the rally pretty much all year so this is not new but continues to be a concern if money doesn't want to flow anywhere but into large tech.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Small Caps really not affirming this rally. They have stayed out of the rally pretty much all year so this is not new but continues to be a concern if money doesn't want to flow anywhere but into large tech.
IWM vs the S&P over the last 30 days. They begin the period basically on top of each other and then IWM basically lags the entire month except for two periods of buying on small caps. Last 3 days the gap accelerated and is now the widest its been. Big tech stock buyback period I'm sure it exacerbating the gap this week.

1699459031812.png
 
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Mist

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This is exactly why I was talking about OEF two weeks ago. Unless something radically changes, the next 10-15 years is going to be winner-take-all for top tech companies. Even if a couple do get broken up, that wouldn't hurt OEF broadly.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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A lot to digest on DIS earnings but they stopped the bleeding on subscribers which was critical. The revenue miss was small (all things being relative).

 

Mist

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This feels like a "sell the news" moment for DIS to me? I'm up 10.3%.
 
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