Projecting a player coming from NPB is only slightly less reliable than projecting a player coming from AAA.
MLB Hot Stove '13-'14
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Whidon
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So for me the Matt Thornton Signing and what other options got from NNY competitors sorta defined their off-season in a nutshell for me.
Thornton-FiP of 4.04 and 3.19 last two years. K rates of 7.43 and 6.23 last year. Dude is 37, He's a "name" guy his fastball is still fast but it's no longer effective. NYY gave him 2/7m
Jose Mijares- Fip of 3.05,3.09, K rates between 9/9ip and 10/9ip, ERA about the same as Thornton over the past 2 years despite a .422 babip last year.. Age 29, given a minor league contract with Boston where he can earn 1.5m total if he hits all incentives...
Mijares was not the only other option as good or better then Thornton either. NYY simply paid for a clearly worse player, seemingly because of his name.
Also I can't believe anyone offered more then 7/155+20m fee so 7/175 $25m a year(+luxury tax) for a guy you hope can be the Japanese John Lackey. His FB avg 90.5mph could well cause him to get hammered in MLB, despite his command. While he may be a good pitcher, he is maybe the most over hyped international player by a considerable margin.
Does not the combo of the below scare you?
1. 40 grade Fastball velo while relying on pounding the zone...
2. Declining strike out rates, with only 7.8k/9ip last year
3. Huge IP and pitch counts at a very young age
The hope is his Splitter is so good hes like Uehera, but Uehera is an RP, as are all the guys with 90mph FB, control and killer splits/changes. I can't think of any Dominate SP with that profile. Schilling had way more fastball and historically great command for instance.
Thornton-FiP of 4.04 and 3.19 last two years. K rates of 7.43 and 6.23 last year. Dude is 37, He's a "name" guy his fastball is still fast but it's no longer effective. NYY gave him 2/7m
Jose Mijares- Fip of 3.05,3.09, K rates between 9/9ip and 10/9ip, ERA about the same as Thornton over the past 2 years despite a .422 babip last year.. Age 29, given a minor league contract with Boston where he can earn 1.5m total if he hits all incentives...
Mijares was not the only other option as good or better then Thornton either. NYY simply paid for a clearly worse player, seemingly because of his name.
Also I can't believe anyone offered more then 7/155+20m fee so 7/175 $25m a year(+luxury tax) for a guy you hope can be the Japanese John Lackey. His FB avg 90.5mph could well cause him to get hammered in MLB, despite his command. While he may be a good pitcher, he is maybe the most over hyped international player by a considerable margin.
Does not the combo of the below scare you?
1. 40 grade Fastball velo while relying on pounding the zone...
2. Declining strike out rates, with only 7.8k/9ip last year
3. Huge IP and pitch counts at a very young age
The hope is his Splitter is so good hes like Uehera, but Uehera is an RP, as are all the guys with 90mph FB, control and killer splits/changes. I can't think of any Dominate SP with that profile. Schilling had way more fastball and historically great command for instance.
He needs a solid defense to back him up, and with Derek Jeter playing on one leg I don't think he's going to get that. There's going to be a lot of grounders up the middle, because no way in hell is he out-powering anybody with raw stuff.
A Civic is a solid car. But no matter what douchebag spoilers and custom paint jobs you put on it, it's still a Honda Civic.
A Civic is a solid car. But no matter what douchebag spoilers and custom paint jobs you put on it, it's still a Honda Civic.
Whidon
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I am amazed the Yankees have not signed Stephen Drew. The most Diehard yanks fan has to realize Jeter is likely done, and that Brian Roberts+ Kelly Johnson are awful as your starting 2b and 3b.
Drew would give you an above avg SS or 3b for either pos and likely only require a 2-3 year deal.
Edit: Have you seen any GB/FB data on Tanaka? I have not read anything about him being a GB pitcher and most guys relying heavy on the split are FB types. That combined with the 90mph fb could allow a ton of HR and hard hit balls. But yeah The potentially atrocious IF defense is a worry also.
Agenor
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Problem with Drew is he turned the Yankees down last year. He only wants to play shortstop. This is where Jeter needs to get over himself. Even before he was hurt, he has been towards the very bottom of the league when it comes to SS defense. He's been cooked at that position for a number of years, but refuses to move. Cal Ripken moved. He's just hurting his team at this point.
I don't think the Yankees are to fond at giving the Red Sox a first round compensation pick for Drew as well.
I don't think the Yankees are to fond at giving the Red Sox a first round compensation pick for Drew as well.
Grimmlokk
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A.J. Burnett agrees to deal with Philadelphia Phillies - ESPN
Didn't think he'd be back, but it still sucks. He was really steady and apparently a great clubhouse guy.
Didn't think he'd be back, but it still sucks. He was really steady and apparently a great clubhouse guy.
