The 25k is ultimately the number that matters, the most. Very few people picked the boxing server. It's easily 90-95% Unique people.
The game has been in EA for a week, that number will obviously continue to climb until at least the end of this month.
Games typically don't peak in EA, but peak when the 1.0 drops.
Unless the numbers seriously tank in the next few months they'll be fine for a long time.
I don't disagree that 25k active subscriptions is the more important number
commercially. What I disagree with is the amount people are extrapolating from that number.
First, the "90-95% unique people" claim is a complete assumption unless the developers have actually provided that breakdown. The fact that relatively few people chose the boxing server doesn't establish that 90-95% of those subscriptions represent unique people. Someone can have multiple subscriptions without ever touching the boxing server (people who believe people don't box because it isn't "allowed" clearly don't understand how the modern internet/computers work). Even if 95% are unique, though, that still doesn't answer the question I'm asking.
Second, saying the number will "obviously continue to climb" is pure speculation. It might. But we're talking about one week of Early Access. Early Access launches are precisely when you have your most concentrated wave of curious players, existing EQ fans, influencers, friends dragging friends in, and people wanting to see what the game is all about. Some of those people will stick around, some won't. That's what the next several months are going to tell us, especially once you have games people have been hyped about releasing.
And yes, games
can peak at 1.0 rather than Early Access. They can also peak at EA launch and decline. There's no rule that says an MMO's population necessarily has to keep climbing simply because 1.0 hasn't happened yet. That depends on retention, content cadence, word of mouth, and whether the game can continually replace the players it loses.
That's ultimately the point I'm making. 25k subscriptions after one week tells us that there is an audience for MnM. It does not tell us what the long-term audience will be (or even short-term, since 1 week is virtually meaningless in terms of retention on a game the requires 30 days MINIMUM just to get in the door). If they still have 20-25k active subscriptions months from now, great. If they grow to 50k, even better. If they settle at 10k and that's enough to comfortably support the game, fantastic. I'd be happy to admit I was wrong.
But "25k after one week + MMOs sometimes grow after 1.0 = they'll be fine for a long time" is just speculation. You're taking the most optimistic possible trajectory and treating it as the inevitable one. And that's especially relevant to what I've actually been arguing. I've never said "nobody wants MnM." The numbers have already disproven that and there are a lot of gaming masochists out there. I've always questioned whether the extremely "old-school" design philosophy they're reproducing has the long-term appeal and sustainability that people are assuming it does.
Basically, you're arguing with me about a conclusion I haven't made. I never said MnM doesn't have an audience. I'm saying we don't yet know how large its enduring audience is and whether it's enough to support the game financially long-term. That's precisely what the next 3-12 months are going to tell us.