NBA 2015 Off-Season Thread

Slaythe

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I love the three players chosen to model. Let's get Joel and Nerlens over here and...uhhhh...yeah, one of you other guys come too.
 

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Noel really developed fast this season. I can't wait to see the player he becomes.

Pretty worried about Joel and his foot. As much as I enjoyed his dunk, it looks like that played a part in the reinjured foot. I met Noel and Joel last summer. It's crazy how much bigger Joel is than him. You can kind of see it in the picture too

 

Slaythe

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Embiid's foot thing is supposedly the same injury Yao had, right? Is that clickbait news I read or is there truth to it? I hope he can fully recover. There is very little question that he's going to be a really good player. He also seems like just an overall good guy.

And yeah, definitely right on with Noel. He started the year off pretty rough, but recovered quickly. They always give ROY to whoever leads in scoring and being a Wolves fan I don't mind seeing Wiggins get it, but if we're talking overall production it's hard to argue against Noel. He'll be a defensive anchor for the next 15 years assuming he stays healthy.

I kind of worry about fit between those two. If Noel can learn a reliable 15 footer it would help a ton. He doesn't have much of an offensive game right now. Still very young obviously. Ultimately when you're rebuilding you go with talent though and I would have made the exact same picks if I was Hinke. Honestly two years ago Noel falling as far as he did would have given me wood if I was in the position to draft him.

I think you guys might fall into a tough spot this year though. The entire nation is souring on Okafor and while he's by no means a bad prospect, everyone has realized that Towns and Russell are just better picks.

You should be hoping Flip messes this up for us and goes with Okafor then Russell will be there and I really can't imagine a better scenario for your team. He might still be there regardless, as the Lakers are rooted in traditional scouting and probably see him as a scoring anchor, but a smart team takes Russell #2 without too much hesitation.
 

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They say it's the same kind of injury. They've been very quiet since it was announced last week. There has been talk of some surgery. It sucks, I really wanted to see him in the summer league. Sounds like they are going hard on Saric too. They want him over this year. Assuming we draft Russell, and Joel is ready for the season, we'd have a very interesting team to watch next year.

I think the sixers are worried too. That's why I posted what I did yesterday with baiting the magic to move up. I think they are trying to drum up interest in the press for Porzingis on purpose. I won't be mad if we end up with Mudiay bc it would mean we probably traded back and picked up another pick or player somewhere. I think both players have a ton of upside but Russell appears to the better chance of being an all around great PG.
 

Slaythe

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I never know what to think about foreign prospects because I obviously fall on the analytics side of things and they're far and away the hardest to project. Exum had a ton of buzz around him last year and while he's still super young, he didn't really show much of anything as a rookie.

Mudiay definitely looks to have an NBA ready body and that combination of athleticism and strength I can definitely see as intriguing. That just does little for me as there are tons of players with NBA bodies that don't pan out. But I fully admit I'm biased here as traditional scouting doesn't mean much to me unless you're Jerry West.

Russell just has everything going for himexceptthat top end athleticism. But I wouldn't call him unathletic...he's just not Westbrook. But you just don't see guys come around very often with that mix of scoring ability and court vision. He's not just a good drive and kick player...it's legit 'see plays develop' floor general level awareness. Plus he showed all of this surrounded by a pretty awful supporting cast at Ohio State. I like the Harden comparisons. It's asking a lot to say he'll bethatgood. But he certainly has that potential.
 

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I haven't really figured out where to place Mudiay. I wanted him over Russell for the longest time. How competitive is that league in China? His sample size was small because of injury but he did preform well. It's more of an nba type league than NCAA as well. Hinkie was the only GM to go over there but he checks out every player. Draft is so intrigueing this year due to the GMs being so unconventional in their wisdom.
 

Slaythe

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The problem with trying to model international players is simply the sample size. That China league might be more competitive than a typical NCAA season padded with an easy out of conference schedule and the Spanish leagues are supposed to be 2nd only to the NBA in that regard, but there are thousands and thousands of games to analyze of NCAA players and the comparison to production in the NBA. How many NBA playerstotahave played in China? A dozen? Even with the more popular Euro leagues the sample overall is just minuscule in comparison.
 

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It's tough to figure out. Mudiay was rumored to come here most of the season then Russell's stock rose and now Mudiay is falling. Who knows.

I truly think lakers go for Oakafor. He makes the most sense from them and he's a big. They love thier bigs.
 

Araxen

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Credit:NBA Draft - How the pros do it, ranking prospects by tiers
Karl-Anthony Towns - Page 18

Tier 1
Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C, Kentucky

Ahead of last year's draft, we had three players in this category: Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid and Jabari Parker. This category usually is reserved for guys who are surefire All-Stars/franchise players. Just three other players since we started this column in 2009 -- Griffin, Wall and Davis -- have been ranked in this slot. You have to be elite to get here.

This year was one of the toughest yet. Five players were nominated for Tier 1 by various teams. However, only one player was consistently mentioned by all of them: Towns. Although some teams don't see major separation between him and the players in Tier 2, others feel that there's a gap and that he's the only one in the draft who has the potential to be a top-10 player in the league.


Tier 2
Joe Maiorana/USA TODAY Sports

Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Congo

Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke

Kristaps Porzingis, F/C, Latvia

D'Angelo Russell, G, Ohio State

This is a very strong Tier 2. Mudiay, Okafor, Porzingis and Russell all have a claim to be the No. 1 pick. In fact, Okafor was the favorite to be the No. 1 pick since July, and several teams put Russell on par with Towns. Both received votes for Tier 1 but not enough to move them up.

Tier 2 is reserved for players with All-Star potential. However, each player on the list has a weakness that some teams feel will keep him from being a superstar. For Mudiay, it's shooting. For Okafor and Russell, it's athleticism and defense. For Porzingis, it's a thin body and questionable position. Nevertheless, each of the four has a strength that should propel him to an All-Star Game in his career.

One fun note: Last year we wrote the column before Porzingis, then regarded as a Tier 4 prospect, had withdrawn from the draft. So he has jumped up two tiers.

Tier 3
Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports

Willie Cauley-Stein, F/C, Kentucky

Mario Hezonja, G/F, Croatia

Justise Winslow, G/F, Duke

This is a very strong Tier 3, as well. Hezonja and Winslow received Tier 2 votes from teams. However, both fell just short of the cut.

This tier usually is reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers. All three players should go in the top 10. Hezonja, especially, has some star appeal. Having eight players in the first three tiers makes for a very strong draft, but not quite as strong as the 2014 draft, which had 12 players in the first three tiers.

Tier 4
Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky

Sam Dekker, F, Wisconsin

Jerian Grant, G, Notre Dame

Stanley Johnson, G/F, Arizona

Frank Kaminsky, F/C, Wisconsin

Kevon Looney, F, UCLA

Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky

Kelly Oubre, G/F, Kansas

Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State

Bobby Portis, PF, Arkanas

Myles Turner, F/C, Texas

Tier 4 typically is late-lottery to mid-first-round selections in a normal draft -- selections 10 through 20. This year, that tier is roughly 9-19 on our Big Board. Lots of talented players in this tier project to be starters or high-level rotation players.

Here, even the consensus in tiers starts to break down.

Guys really are all over the place. Booker, Kaminsky, Lyles and Turner each scored a few votes for Tier 3. Payne also picked up a Tier 3 vote. Still, the majority of teams had them ranked in Tier 4. Oubre, Grant and Looney had some Tier 5 votes, but most of their votes were in Tier 4.

Tier 5
Lance King/Getty Images

Justin Anderson, SG, Virginia

Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, G/F, Arizona

R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State

Tyus Jones, PG, Duke

Terry Rozier, G, Louisville

Rashad Vaughn, SG, UNLV

Delon Wright, PG, Utah

This next group is one of the smaller Tier 5s we've had and shows the drop-off in talent as we get into the 20s. By pick 25 or so, teams really struggle to come up with players they think can make the league.

This area of the draft is typically reserved for rotation players: They're unlikely to start for good teams but could become solid role players off the bench. A few teams had Hollis-Jefferson, Hunter, Jones and Vaughn in Tier 4, but that's not quite enough for them to make the cut. Rozier, Harrell and Wright got a few Tier 6 votes.

Tier 6
Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas

Anthony Brown, SG, Stanford

Rakeem Christmas, F/C, Syracuse

Olivier Hanlan, G, Boston College

Guillermo Hernangomez, C, Spain

Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky

Jarell Martin, PF, LSU

Chris McCullough, F, Syracuse

Cedi Osman, F, Turkey

Robert Upshaw, C, Washington

Christian Wood, PF, UNLV

Joseph Young, G, Oregon

In this tier are the players one or more teams ranked in their top 30. A few -- Brown, Martin and McCullough -- got Tier 5 votes. The rest are likely second-round picks. This list is typically quite a bit longer. Again, the talent level of the draft drops off a cliff as we get into these lower tiers.

Like every draft system, the tier system isn't perfect. But most teams in the NBA run it, and they have found success with it. It has allowed them to get help through the draft without overreaching. Compared with traditional top-30 lists or mock drafts, it seems like a much more precise tool for gauging which players a team should draft.
 

Lasch

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Justin Anderson looks like he'll always be a role player, but he looks like a solid one, that any team would gladly have on their bench.
 

Muurloen

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OOOOOOH I like where Frank the Tank in this break down of tiers. He would be a great fit for the Rockets. They could easily package Terence Jones and r1p18 to move up. Make it so Morey.
 

Lasch

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Coincidentally, 538 has Frank ranked as 18th.
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Brahma

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The way that Golden State won the title this year...How plausible is it to win this way without a Curry on your team? Like Boston IMO can start to emulate GS MUCH easier than over lets say a San Antonio.

As far as Kristaps Porzingis goes. I just really hate the Euro guys. They play soft. I tried looking for as much footage on him as I could find. The highlights are just not usable because everything they show of him is basic shit against guys that are nowhere near his size. How will he fair against a Howard or Cousins. Davis will spit this guy out on a nightly basis.
 

zzeris

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As far as Kristaps Porzingis goes. I just really hate the Euro guys. They play soft. I tried looking for as much footage on him as I could find. The highlights are just not usable because everything they show of him is basic shit against guys that are nowhere near his size. How will he fair against a Howard or Cousins. Davis will spit this guy out on a nightly basis.
That's how I feel as well. Europe doesn't have the same level of competition and outside of a few, European players just aren't as successful in the states. Not successful enough to use high draft picks on anyways.
 

Lasch

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The way that Golden State won the title this year...How plausible is it to win this way without a Curry on your team? Like Boston IMO can start to emulate GS MUCH easier than over lets say a San Antonio.
If you face every playoff team without their starting PG and with another injured player, then I wouldn't think it would be the hardest thing to form a team with a bunch of two way players and win the ring without having a Curry.
Having the two way players be good enough for a team to win for 60+ wins without Curry is another matter.
 

Drajakur

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Looks like Cousins is done in SAC. Pretty incredible. I wonder if they knew what they were getting with Karl. If I was a SAC fan I'd be pissed - getting rid of someone like Cousins is a tough pill, even given his mentality / maturity issues. No way Karl and him can co-exist now that the story is public.
 

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Looks like Cousins is done in SAC. Pretty incredible. I wonder if they knew what they were getting with Karl. If I was a SAC fan I'd be pissed - getting rid of someone like Cousins is a tough pill, even given his mentality / maturity issues. No way Karl and him can co-exist now that the story is public.
I doubt it. At least not for th deal I read about. Orlando isn't just going to come out a loser for no reason