The Astronomy Thread

Tuco

I got Tuco'd!
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And here is high res video from a helo of the landing.



Both trajectories of the engine burning.
rrr_img_120476.jpg
So cool. I'm super-pumped for this and hope this enables the kind of cost-savings for LEO delivery that Elon is hoping for.
 

VariaVespasa_sl

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Speaking of which, is there a breakdown on how much this reduces cost of delivery?
The figure mentioned on the YouTube channel, which may or may not have anything at all to do with reality, say the total cost of a launch is 60 mill, and the stage 1 is 16 mill of that. So it should reduce the cost by 16 mill minus the cost of inspection and refurbishment. Ass-pull guess is around 10-12 mill in savings, so 15-20%. Same channel quotes the cost of fuel at 200k, again thats youtube comments so fuck knows its thats correct or not, but its bedtime for me so I dont have time to do more credible research.
 

spirytus

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Don't mean to downplay a hell of an engineering accomplishment, but this stage 1 doesn't look very airworthy to me at this point. If you check out the video Elon posted on twitter (here), that looks like an impact fracture on the landing leg support structure, upper fuselage will definitely need some TLC and who knows the state of its 9 motors at this point...

Clearly they'll disassemble this puppy, analyze every single component and apply lessons learned to the next revision.
 

VariaVespasa_sl

shitlord
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Don't mean to downplay a hell of an engineering accomplishment, but this stage 1 doesn't look very airworthy to me at this point. If you check out the video Elon posted on twitter (here), that looks like an impact fracture on the landing leg support structure, upper fuselage will definitely need some TLC and who knows the state of its 9 motors at this point...

Clearly they'll disassemble this puppy, analyze every single component and apply lessons learned to the next revision.
Not seeing any fractures. The thing on the left leg is a triangular plate on the leg, not a crack, and the thing running up the side of the stage is a pair of wires if you look closely.
 

spirytus

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Hmmm... shaky ass video, I guess I missed the shadow cast; Why is it only on this leg? ... Need to work on my armchair CSI skills.
 

Tuco

I got Tuco'd!
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That's one of the big questions I think everyone has. Now that they've landed it, what will it take to make it launch-worthy again?

I have to imagine there are a lot of engineering decisions made to minimize weight based on the assumption a rocket is only used once. Having to reinforce everything so that it can be relaunched has to be expensive.
 

Faltigoth

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That's one of the big questions I think everyone has. Now that they've landed it, what will it take to make it launch-worthy again?

I have to imagine there are a lot of engineering decisions made to minimize weight based on the assumption a rocket is only used once. Having to reinforce everything so that it can be relaunched has to be expensive.
Luckily for everyone this thing is being delivered by one of the handful of individuals in the world for whom that level of expensive is manageable. Well, hopefully manageable.
 

Picasso3

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I bet Elon gets blindsided by a huge rocket refurbishing bill and has to get a reverse mortgage on the gigafactory to stay afloat.
 

Tuco

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Luckily for everyone this thing is being delivered by one of the handful of individuals in the world for whom that level of expensive is manageable. Well, hopefully manageable.
Sure, but the entire purpose of this venture is to reduce costs. If they find out that building a re-usable rocket and refurbishing it everytime is more expensive than building a one-shot rocket, well, that'll be disappointing.

I don't think that's the case though. And I'm sure they've put a lot of hours in Kerbal to find out the exact numbers.
 

Lithose

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Supposedly that's the big question for them as well; its why they needed to land it. Now they need to break it down and see how much it costs to rebuild. However, if it saves even half the cost of Stage 1, that's a huge drop in price per pound.

Edit: Btw, here is a great article on howSpace X is driving down costs.As said in the article, they don't even go for patents on their tech to protect it from the Chinese. Their operational cost is around 2500$ per pound into orbit, which is exceptionally low.

If this can knock off another 50% off stage 1, and lets say that's 20% in total off the operational cost? Its an enormous savings, especially if they can apply it to the Falcon Heavy, which will drive it below 1k a pound. You can read in the article a bunch of flaws that have risen up from this industry not having a focus on cost savings (Privatized mind set) and instead being more concerned with performance (Which they have a huge incentive to increase thanks to how government procurement works which ensures even if X company goes over budget, they still get a profit. So they have an incentive to make it as high performance as possible and push the costs up to just below what would cancel them. And we wonder why the F35 costs so much.)

But he talks freely about SpaceX's approach to rocket design, which stems from one core principle: Simplicity enables both reliability and low cost. Think of cars, Musk says. "Is a Ferrari more reliable than a Toyota Corolla or a Honda Civic?" Simplifying something as complex as a rocket is no easy task. And historically, most rocket makers have made their top priority performance, not cost.

In any case, he now has an incentive to reduce cost in order to sell and create an industry, just like the auto industry had an incentive to help build up the petroleum infrastructure. And the common sense methods he's done to reduce the price per pound are so simple, you'd wonder why they weren't done before; of course, the way government works does explain a lot of it.

But the point is that any further reduction in cost is HUGE considering how cheap the Falcon program has already made the launches. In terms of price efficiency they are already so far ahead of NASA its unreal.
 

Malakriss

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The numbers I saw on reddit were $16m for the rocket, which previously would be discarded, but only $200k to refuel if recovered intact. Obviously, you would have some inspection and maintenance costs before reusing but 98.75% savings pre-overhead is always nice.
 

meStevo

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Picasso3

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The insistence on reusability "drives the engineers insane," says Vozoff. "We could've had Falcon 1 in orbit two years earlier than we did if Elon had just given up on first stage reusability. The qualification for the Merlin engine was far outside of what was necessary, unless you plan to recover it and reuse it. And so the engineers are frustrated because this isn't the quickest means to the end. But Elon has this bigger picture in mind. And he forces them to do what's hard. And I admire that about him."
 

Kedwyn

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I wonder if this is going to be a shuttle all over again with these reusable rockets. Where people do some rough math and are like "yeah man we save 12m a shot it's massive". Then proceed to spend twice that between the inspections, repairs and engineering / re engineering something that can't really be fixed, lost loads to failures etc.

Shit, I really hope it all works out but I wonder if something like this is even possible with current tech. Excited to see them try.
 

Cad

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I wonder if this is going to be a shuttle all over again with these reusable rockets. Where people do some rough math and are like "yeah man we save 12m a shot it's massive". Then proceed to spend twice that between the inspections, repairs and engineering / re engineering something that can't really be fixed, lost loads to failures etc.

Shit, I really hope it all works out but I wonder if something like this is even possible with current tech. Excited to see them try.
Thats the difference between a private enterprise and govt though. Govt will take a mandate like "make it reusable" and spend a lot more to do so. If this shit turns out to not save money, private enterprise will drop it.

It'd be sweet if they took one of these once they get it in final version, and just destructively tested it by launching it over and over with nothing but refuels to see what fails first. Then fix that and try again.
 

Khalan

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I think more important is the landing, as that will be the only way we will meaningfully get people to Mars and Back. As current technology won't allow us to send people without Vert Takeoff/landing.
 

Big Phoenix

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Supposedly that's the big question for them as well; its why they needed to land it. Now they need to break it down and see how much it costs to rebuild. However, if it saves even half the cost of Stage 1, that's a huge drop in price per pound.

Edit: Btw, here is a great article on howSpace X is driving down costs.As said in the article, they don't even go for patents on their tech to protect it from the Chinese. Their operational cost is around 2500$ per pound into orbit, which is exceptionally low.

If this can knock off another 50% off stage 1, and lets say that's 20% in total off the operational cost? Its an enormous savings, especially if they can apply it to the Falcon Heavy, which will drive it below 1k a pound. You can read in the article a bunch of flaws that have risen up from this industry not having a focus on cost savings (Privatized mind set) and instead being more concerned with performance (Which they have a huge incentive to increase thanks to how government procurement works which ensures even if X company goes over budget, they still get a profit. So they have an incentive to make it as high performance as possible and push the costs up to just below what would cancel them. And we wonder why the F35 costs so much.)

But he talks freely about SpaceX's approach to rocket design, which stems from one core principle: Simplicity enables both reliability and low cost. Think of cars, Musk says. "Is a Ferrari more reliable than a Toyota Corolla or a Honda Civic?" Simplifying something as complex as a rocket is no easy task. And historically, most rocket makers have made their top priority performance, not cost.

In any case, he now has an incentive to reduce cost in order to sell and create an industry, just like the auto industry had an incentive to help build up the petroleum infrastructure. And the common sense methods he's done to reduce the price per pound are so simple, you'd wonder why they weren't done before; of course, the way government works does explain a lot of it.

But the point is that any further reduction in cost is HUGE considering how cheap the Falcon program has already made the launches. In terms of price efficiency they are already so far ahead of NASA its unreal.
Surprised they didnt just try and do this;

Big dumb booster - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Sea Dragon (rocket) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia