I posted this in the FoH board so I'll retype it out here. Which ever console chooses to not play used games will be the winner of this console generation. As much as developers like to claim piracy is what kills their profits it is just a tiny fraction compared to the profit loss from the second hard market. You can argue that the people who pirate were not going to buy the game in the first place and so it was no loss in profit. You can not argue that someone buying a used game is no profit loss because real money was exchanged for the game. Money that the developer could have received if not for the second hard market. Instead retailers, even individuals, pocketed that money without ever considering how much money the developer spent producing the game. It is already a known fact that the cost of game production is increasing to the point that it is nearly eclipsing the profit grain even if the game is a mild hit. SquarEnix even stated they made less profit than expected from the new Tomb Raider and that game was considered a hit.
The elimination of the second hard market means a game is profitable for the life of the console and not just during the first few months then dwindling down to nothing once the used copies start flowing back into the user stream. Steam has proven that games even as old as 10 years can still turn a profit because the second hard market for the PC is non-existent. Developers will want that assurance because that means they can stay in business longer
Lets say Microsoft does go the route of not playing used games. They will have a huge incentive for developers once they show a game will be profitable for the life of the console. That incentive will also show that releasing a game multi-platform on a console that does allow used games to be played will lower developer profit if they had only released it for the Xbox. By making the game for another console with a second hand market you in turn create a second hard market for the game. You have to remember that money exchanged in the second hard market is money they will never see. It is not in their best interest to make players that only purchase used games happy. It might promote their company and game but it doesn't pay the rent at the end of the day. What is in their best interest is having a flash sale and sell it for lower than the used game price because at least then they will make some profit from it. It is a common practice for the used price to be lower than the new price in the same retail establishment.
Now lets say Sony does allow used game to be played on the PS4. If they do and Microsoft goes with the no used game strat then expect the PS4 to have stripped down versions of Xbox ports. The developers will try their best to get the players to buy the Xbox version because they know it will never change hands without them receiving something for it. The Xbox version will receive "extra content" which is them really saying you get the full game. They might even sale the Xbox version for cheaper to encourage the gamer for the purchase because why the hell not. It's not like the gamer can resell the game so selling for cheaper is a net profit by the fact it wasn't a PS4 version sold. The developers will force Sony to go the way of the Xbox or be stuck as the console with the hand me downs along with pricey DLC that is normally package with the Xbox version to compensate for the used market profit loss. Only the first party titles will have all the intended content which places Sony at a disadvantage because the very nature of the second hand market will eat at their profits as well.
The elimination of the used games is coming. Like it or hate it, there will only be a few ways of purchasing your game and that is either by disk key code or digital download. It will be up to the console makers to determine how user friendly the purchasing and playing of the game will be on who wins out the customer base. Take advantage of the transition to the pure digital age of purchase and playing of video games because once it set's in I expect prices, and service, to turn into a draconian utility.
My speculation is that Microsoft is going to give this Xbox away. I'm just making a guess here but I expect a 99 dollar price tag along with a two year contract. Microsoft is going to treat this console like a smart phone. Either pay 500 dollars or get a contract which covers gold membership and all repairs of the system. Make that RRoD work for them in the setting people at ease on if it stops working. Gaming is no longer the only profit the Xbox is after. The act of watching TV, using Bing, renting moves, buy songs and what ever else it has is what makes money. Microsoft wants an iTunes/Googleplay and placing a premium price on it will not make that happen. They will want every house hold to have one of these boxes in it and selling to you even at a 400 dollar lose is worth more to them than you not having one at all.
This is after all my view on the matter so take it lightly.
The elimination of the second hard market means a game is profitable for the life of the console and not just during the first few months then dwindling down to nothing once the used copies start flowing back into the user stream. Steam has proven that games even as old as 10 years can still turn a profit because the second hard market for the PC is non-existent. Developers will want that assurance because that means they can stay in business longer
Lets say Microsoft does go the route of not playing used games. They will have a huge incentive for developers once they show a game will be profitable for the life of the console. That incentive will also show that releasing a game multi-platform on a console that does allow used games to be played will lower developer profit if they had only released it for the Xbox. By making the game for another console with a second hand market you in turn create a second hard market for the game. You have to remember that money exchanged in the second hard market is money they will never see. It is not in their best interest to make players that only purchase used games happy. It might promote their company and game but it doesn't pay the rent at the end of the day. What is in their best interest is having a flash sale and sell it for lower than the used game price because at least then they will make some profit from it. It is a common practice for the used price to be lower than the new price in the same retail establishment.
Now lets say Sony does allow used game to be played on the PS4. If they do and Microsoft goes with the no used game strat then expect the PS4 to have stripped down versions of Xbox ports. The developers will try their best to get the players to buy the Xbox version because they know it will never change hands without them receiving something for it. The Xbox version will receive "extra content" which is them really saying you get the full game. They might even sale the Xbox version for cheaper to encourage the gamer for the purchase because why the hell not. It's not like the gamer can resell the game so selling for cheaper is a net profit by the fact it wasn't a PS4 version sold. The developers will force Sony to go the way of the Xbox or be stuck as the console with the hand me downs along with pricey DLC that is normally package with the Xbox version to compensate for the used market profit loss. Only the first party titles will have all the intended content which places Sony at a disadvantage because the very nature of the second hand market will eat at their profits as well.
The elimination of the used games is coming. Like it or hate it, there will only be a few ways of purchasing your game and that is either by disk key code or digital download. It will be up to the console makers to determine how user friendly the purchasing and playing of the game will be on who wins out the customer base. Take advantage of the transition to the pure digital age of purchase and playing of video games because once it set's in I expect prices, and service, to turn into a draconian utility.
My speculation is that Microsoft is going to give this Xbox away. I'm just making a guess here but I expect a 99 dollar price tag along with a two year contract. Microsoft is going to treat this console like a smart phone. Either pay 500 dollars or get a contract which covers gold membership and all repairs of the system. Make that RRoD work for them in the setting people at ease on if it stops working. Gaming is no longer the only profit the Xbox is after. The act of watching TV, using Bing, renting moves, buy songs and what ever else it has is what makes money. Microsoft wants an iTunes/Googleplay and placing a premium price on it will not make that happen. They will want every house hold to have one of these boxes in it and selling to you even at a 400 dollar lose is worth more to them than you not having one at all.
This is after all my view on the matter so take it lightly.
