Weather

Oldbased

Oldbased

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Gravel said:
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And 5th strongest in all the Atlantic.
Irma will assume a more west-northwesterly track over the next day, which would bring the core of the hurricane just north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday. The northern portions of both locations are in the cone of uncertainty, and could recieve a direct hit. Irma is expanding in size, and is predicted to increase the radius of its tropical-storm force wind area by about 10 - 15 miles every day. As of 11 am EDT Tuesday, tropical storm-force winds extended out 140 miles from the center, and hurricane-force winds extended out 35 miles from the center. Most of the islands along Irma’s path will be on the weaker left side, where the wind and storm surge impacts will be less than on the right side of the storm.
Category 5 Irma the 5th Strongest Atlantic Hurricane on Record
 
Oldbased

Oldbased

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Drat said:
I am not sure how legit or accurate (haha?) this site is but this is its prediction for sunday at 11am:

Weather Forecast Maps
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Getting more accurate all the time. However it was very different 12 hours ago and I imagine it'll be different again on the next update which should be in the next few hours for GFS. It'll probably be Thursday before they have a decent shot of predicting on Sunday within a reasonable amount and even then it can become stronger or weaken or wobble around like a drunk bastard in the north.

GFS(used to be AVN) is Global Forecast System by NOAA which I think the military uses or used to.
GEM is Canadian
ICON which only does 4 days is German and Institute of Meteorology

There is a bunches more, especially if you count regional and each networks own weather teams.
Personally I feel NOAA is pretty spot on most of the time when it comes to things weather
 
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D

Drat

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Olebass said:
Getting more accurate all the time. However it was very different 12 hours ago and I imagine it'll be different again on the next update which should be in the next few hours for GFS. It'll probably be Thursday before they have a decent shot of predicting on Sunday within a reasonable amount and even then it can become stronger or weaken or wobble around like a drunk bastard in the north.

GFS(used to be AVN) is Global Forecast System by NOAA which I think the military uses or used to.
GEM is Canadian
ICON which only does 4 days is German and Institute of Meteorology

There is a bunches more, especially if you count regional and each networks own weather teams.
Personally I feel NOAA is pretty spot on most of the time when it comes to things weather
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The GEM model has it not turning for a while longer, going over Cuba and losing gas.
 
mkopec

mkopec

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Drat said:
The GEM model has it not turning for a while longer, going over Cuba and losing gas.
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Yeah but if it goes North up to the gulf, expect strength to intensify even more. Gulf is warm as fuck compared to Atlantic.
 
cyrusreij

cyrusreij

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Chanur said:
My new boss now that I live in Florida was suppossed to be vacationing in Puerto Rico in 10 days. Not sure shes going to make it.

Really hope it turns back to sea. This will be my first hurricane if not since i got out before Harvey hit. Hopefully Orlando is far enough in land.
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It looks like it is going to go full Mortal Kombat fatality and uppercut the whole state. Orlando usually isn't hit too bad, we have no storm surge here (way too far inland), and nowadays most of our roofs are up to date after Charlie destroyed everything back in '04. Not liking South Florida's chances though. Feign Death Soy, maybe it'll path back out to sea....
 
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Borzak

Borzak

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Haven't looked at the water temp in the gulf but been pretty cool at night, cooler than average anyway. Can go out dove hunting in Sept and it be almost 100f and now it's around 80f for a high.
 
Oldbased

Oldbased

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cyrusreij said:
It looks like it is going to go full Mortal Kombat fatality and uppercut the whole state. Orlando usually isn't hit too bad, we have no storm surge here (way too far inland), and nowadays most of our roofs are up to date after Charlie destroyed everything back in '04. Not liking South Florida's chances though. Feign Death Soy, maybe it'll path back out to sea....
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If it follows that updated GFS track it'll basically scare the hell out of Florida without doing much onshore. The change from previous model was it actually hit Miami. Now it is just going to cruise up the coast and there will be some surge and winds but nothing like an impact. Georgia gets hit harder than before though. Still way to early to know. At least Edko would be spared for the most part damage wise. Florida would need a shitload of new piers for sure.

Edko is being forced out regardless of updates and tracks at this point however.
Keys Emergency Manager: "You Must Evacuate, You Cannot Afford To Stay"
 
Gravel

Gravel

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Borzak said:
When they do it here it's as many sandbags as you personally want to bag and they bring in trucks of sand. But they also have a machine that makes them for people not able to bad them and to make a bunch in a hurry.
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My wife's grandmother lives within about 1000 feet of the Ohio river. A while back it had some serious flooding and we had something like 30 people out there sandbagging around her house. It took all afternoon and her house is pretty small (probably under 1000 sqft). Wish I knew how many actual bags, but it had to have been in the hundreds, if not more.

Can't imagine it's even worth sandbagging against storm surge.
 
Oldbased

Oldbased

> Than U
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Gravel said:
My wife's grandmother lives within about 1000 feet of the Ohio river. A while back it had some serious flooding and we had something like 30 people out there sandbagging around her house. It took all afternoon and her house is pretty small (probably under 1000 sqft). Wish I knew how many actual bags, but it had to have been in the hundreds, if not more.

Can't imagine it's even worth sandbagging against storm surge.
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This is a nut video from religious freaks but the editing showing tsunami as Irma surge caught my eye last night.
Them end of the world fools have sure learned how to edit you tube videos.


New info just in, even stronger. 926MB 185 sustained winds. 5 mph from all time Atlantic record holder.
Gusting 230mph Pressure 27.34 tracking still west 12mph( WU didn't update speed. NOAA is reporting speed as 14mph West on update )
Hurricane force winds now extend 60 miles from center and TS 160 miles. This is compared to 35 and 140 miles from the earlier update.
 
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Sulrn

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Gravel said:
My wife's grandmother lives within about 1000 feet of the Ohio river. A while back it had some serious flooding and we had something like 30 people out there sandbagging around her house. It took all afternoon and her house is pretty small (probably under 1000 sqft). Wish I knew how many actual bags, but it had to have been in the hundreds, if not more.

Can't imagine it's even worth sandbagging against storm surge.
Click to expand...

In a city like Miami that's already technically underwater - no, no it's not. You'd be looking at Batman-style sandbag/wood/sealant armoring your entire house or 3/4s of your house for the majority of areas to protect from debris, weak seal points, etc from being underwater for long periods of time.

 
Kiroy

Kiroy

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So harvey was sent to wash away racists and nazis. Was Irma sent to wash away illegals and degenerates?

hrmmm
 
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