Derp yeah I was year behind on Vasy. Depth is going to be hard to keep around unless they continue to magically reload like they have been. I imagine Point will get some pretty solid offers and I don't think the Lightning can afford to match them. I admittedly don't know much about NHL free agency rules but I'm assuming it functions like the NFL does when it comes to RFA players and the deal matching bit. If I had to guess how it goes down --
Forwards:
Callahan gone after this year. Great player and leader but a simple cap casualty.
Point is gone sadly -- UNLESS a crazy scenario plays out regarding the Seattle draft. Get Point signed to a long term deal now then leave Tyler Johnson unprotected for Seattle to scoop up. He's a Washington native and while I'm sure Johnson is plenty happy in Tampa who knows, he might like the idea. Total spitball on this one and really pulling it outta my ass. In all likelihood he's gone.
Erne and Martel get short term deals
Paquette is actually way younger than I thought he was, played 5 seasons but only 25. Not sure on him. Stats aren't great but he's a physical presence which the team sorely lacks. Doubt he'll get a deal TBH.
Joseph I think is a candidate for a long term deal. Played great and can use some of that money freed up from Girardi and Callahan.
Cirelli gets a long term deal as the 1st or 2nd line center, depending on where they decide to play Stamkos. With Point gone I can see him going 2nd line and Stamkos moving back to C for 1st line.
Defense:
Rutta I don't really know much about. Came in late in the year and didn't seem that amazing, but was also only his second season at the NHL level. Lightning must like him better than Koekkoek so I imagine he gets a deal after the season unless he completely shits the bed.
Sergachev I think is really up in the air. His +- was pretty low considering the price he'll likely command for a deal. Would be great to keep him as an offensive minded defenseman, but his defense needs to improve. A long term deal depends on what happens with others.
Stralman is at the end of a $4.5M/yr contract. If they can lock him up for a few more years at that rate I see it happening, if he gets offers elsewhere making more I can see him leaving, but with Florida having no state income tax numbers get weird. He'll turn 33 before the season starts so nothing super long term. I'm hopeful he'll retire a Bolt.
Cernak has to get resigned, he was a beast as a rookie. IMO besides Vasy he and Cirelli are the highest priorities.
Girardi was making $5.5M/yr, there's no way they can afford that with his production. Unless he signs for way cheaper he's gone and take the money he was making and use it to resign Cernak and others, possibly Sergachev.
Coburn was a shit signing as a long term deal. Can see him being a midseason trade pawn, either way he's gone after his deal is up.
Goalies
Vasy obvious long term deal, at this point it's just getting the numbers to line up between the two sides.
Domingue I'd really love for us to keep, he was great in a backup role.
Minor league players I don't know a whole lot about, but I can see Cal Foote coming up and being a day 1 starter on defense especially if Girardi leaves. Outside of Cory Conacher I don't know much about the rest of the players, but I see a lot of forwards with 40+ points and a few in the 80's. Don't know if that's particularly good or not in the AHL so... yay? Conacher did just fine for the Lightning in 2012/13 before he got traded for some guy named Ben Bishop and then he ended up back with the Lightning again anyway. GG on that one.
Kinda want to bookmark this post and check it again at the end of the season to see how horribly wrong I was. Season ain't even close to starting yet so plenty can change but I see their day 1 roster being pretty similar to last year minus Point, Girardi, and Paquette. Foote replaces Girardi, Stamkos moves back to center, Conacher comes up to play on 2nd or 3rd line. Don't know who they get as 4th line center, probably another guy from Syracuse. They seem to keep pulling talent out of their ass every year anyway.
