Autonomous Systems

Would you ever own an autonomous vehicle?

  • Hell yeah Bring on our robotic overlords!

  • Fuck you! I'll keep my Indepenence


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khorum

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Yeah the deeper the tunnel the safer it is.

I used to work for the world's foremost tunnel builders, we ran project management for the UK's channel tunnel and nowadays they're the prime contractor for the largest urban infrastructure in the world, the Riyadh Metro Subway. For the Channel Tunnel, we designed the Siemens TBM that would simultaneously build the tunnel wall, lay new rail and drill a dozen feet of tunnel per hour---that's the "innovation" Musk's proposed TBM is supposed to do and it's been around since the early 90's.

There's really not much you can do to make tunneling cheaper that hasn't already been done. Generally you could make several narrower tunnels instead of one wide one, that would halve the costs since increasing the width of the tunnel raises the costs per kilometer exponentially. In fact, when trying to save the SSC project in Texas, we proposed shrinking the size of the primary ring by a third, which would've dropped the cost of the entire supercollider project by half. Eventually the LHC would have a smaller primary ring for the same reason.

Anyways, Musk would need to keep the tunnels as small as possible to cut costs to where this is something that would overcome the value proposition of just building more surface infrastructure. Making the tunnel smaller makes the TBM a lot faster too since it would need to assemble fewer prefab walls per meter and there would a fuckton less spoil to excavate behind it. Normally the spoil is conveyed out the back of the TBM by rail and waiting for the spoil reservoir to be emptied so it can start drilling again could take hours that it could otherwise be drilling (which is why most TBMs end up drilling only like 20 feet per hour max).
 

Picasso3

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Musk probably doesn't know about the channel tunnel.

"There's nothing you can do to make tunneling cheaper that hasn't already been done"
In the year 4000 you think they'll use the channel tunnel machine?
That's what separates Musk. Maybe it's true, or maybe you can land and reuse rocket boosters.
 

Tuco

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Yeah the deeper the tunnel the safer it is.

I used to work for the world's foremost tunnel builders, we ran project management for the UK's channel tunnel and nowadays they're the prime contractor for the largest urban infrastructure in the world, the Riyadh Metro Subway. For the Channel Tunnel, we designed the Siemens TBM that would simultaneously build the tunnel wall, lay new rail and drill a dozen feet of tunnel per hour---that's the "innovation" Musk's proposed TBM is supposed to do and it's been around since the early 90's.

There's really not much you can do to make tunneling cheaper that hasn't already been done. Generally you could make several narrower tunnels instead of one wide one, that would halve the costs since increasing the width of the tunnel raises the costs per kilometer exponentially. In fact, when trying to save the SSC project in Texas, we proposed shrinking the size of the primary ring by a third, which would've dropped the cost of the entire supercollider project by half. Eventually the LHC would have a smaller primary ring for the same reason.

Anyways, Musk would need to keep the tunnels as small as possible to cut costs to where this is something that would overcome the value proposition of just building more surface infrastructure. Making the tunnel smaller makes the TBM a lot faster too since it would need to assemble fewer prefab walls per meter and there would a fuckton less spoil to excavate behind it. Normally the spoil is conveyed out the back of the TBM by rail and waiting for the spoil reservoir to be emptied so it can start drilling again could take hours that it could otherwise be drilling (which is why most TBMs end up drilling only like 20 feet per hour max).
What you said is one of the principle ways Musk says that he'll make it cheaper (make it smaller and allow the TBM to bore as much as it can instead of waiting around for spoil).

The other principle ways is, "Just do it better than the bunch of losers doing it now." The first way makes sense, we'll see about the second way. Considering what he did to the cabal of literal rocket scientists, I won't be surprised.
 

Tuco

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Las Vegas bets on Elon Musk’s Boring Company for tunnel project

It's mostly just a tech proof of concept with pretty short distance,s but I will be surprised and impressed to see this complete by Jan 2021.

As someone born in Vegas, one interesting benefit to an underground system is that it'll be refreshingly cool in the summertime without needing alot of energy for AC. I wonder how much energy the existing monorail in Vegas uses in the month of July.

For future use the strip is basically perfect because there are very wealthy casinos that don't want to be left out, so I can imagine them shelling out $$$ to ensure they get a station. In other cities you're talking about a bunch of large buildings running on fairly thin margins trying to avoid having to pay for anything extra and leaning on local govts.
 
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Ukerric

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Sometimes, it's more like non-autonomous systems:


TL;DR: All of Zipcar's vehicles are remotely controlled. If the car can't ensure over the network it's leased, it won't start, no matter what. Guess what happens?

It's increasingly common. Apparently, a number of Nissan's electric cars have subscription service for charging. A Nissan owner got stuck in the Highlands for a couple hours because of a local cellphone outage: his Nissan car would not charge because it couldn't connect to the billing system.

We are slowly entering the New Feudal Age, one item at a time. While people tend to associate feudality with serfdom, the real distinguishing economic feature of feudality was the absolute ownership of capital by the lord. You did not own your tools, you rented them. You could not grind flour on your own, you had to lease the mill owned by your lord to do so. And so on. It was (from the lord's perspective) the best system: he had guaranteed rents all over, and nobody could really escape the interlocking system of rent extraction.

The modern age is slowly turning away from the private, individual ownership to the model of rent. The game industry wants nothing more than you going online, where you will rent the game instead of owning it forever (with the top: streaming games, where you not only do not own the game, but the computer on which you play it). All kind of devices now come with remote controls: Apple can wipe out any of your devices at any time ("but only if you enabled it! We swear"). And now, your cars - including the ones you purchased - are under a third party control.
 

Foler

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Sometimes, it's more like non-autonomous systems:


TL;DR: All of Zipcar's vehicles are remotely controlled. If the car can't ensure over the network it's leased, it won't start, no matter what. Guess what happens?

It's increasingly common. Apparently, a number of Nissan's electric cars have subscription service for charging. A Nissan owner got stuck in the Highlands for a couple hours because of a local cellphone outage: his Nissan car would not charge because it couldn't connect to the billing system.

We are slowly entering the New Feudal Age, one item at a time. While people tend to associate feudality with serfdom, the real distinguishing economic feature of feudality was the absolute ownership of capital by the lord. You did not own your tools, you rented them. You could not grind flour on your own, you had to lease the mill owned by your lord to do so. And so on. It was (from the lord's perspective) the best system: he had guaranteed rents all over, and nobody could really escape the interlocking system of rent extraction.

The modern age is slowly turning away from the private, individual ownership to the model of rent. The game industry wants nothing more than you going online, where you will rent the game instead of owning it forever (with the top: streaming games, where you not only do not own the game, but the computer on which you play it). All kind of devices now come with remote controls: Apple can wipe out any of your devices at any time ("but only if you enabled it! We swear"). And now, your cars - including the ones you purchased - are under a third party control.
2019- Buy electric cars they're good for the environment!

2026 - VaaS, vehicles as a service. Not only are you leasing them but you're paying for charging, for constant software updates. Oh, you want the latest software update? Gotta be a subscriber.
 

Tuco

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Sometimes, it's more like non-autonomous systems:


TL;DR: All of Zipcar's vehicles are remotely controlled. If the car can't ensure over the network it's leased, it won't start, no matter what. Guess what happens?

It's increasingly common. Apparently, a number of Nissan's electric cars have subscription service for charging. A Nissan owner got stuck in the Highlands for a couple hours because of a local cellphone outage: his Nissan car would not charge because it couldn't connect to the billing system.

We are slowly entering the New Feudal Age, one item at a time. While people tend to associate feudality with serfdom, the real distinguishing economic feature of feudality was the absolute ownership of capital by the lord. You did not own your tools, you rented them. You could not grind flour on your own, you had to lease the mill owned by your lord to do so. And so on. It was (from the lord's perspective) the best system: he had guaranteed rents all over, and nobody could really escape the interlocking system of rent extraction.

The modern age is slowly turning away from the private, individual ownership to the model of rent. The game industry wants nothing more than you going online, where you will rent the game instead of owning it forever (with the top: streaming games, where you not only do not own the game, but the computer on which you play it). All kind of devices now come with remote controls: Apple can wipe out any of your devices at any time ("but only if you enabled it! We swear"). And now, your cars - including the ones you purchased - are under a third party control.
This is pretty reactionary because:
1. As the tech improves and usage expands, the rules regarding network connectivity will decrease. The first phases of this shit is going to be annoying, don't be an early adopter if you don't want to experience growing pains of early adoption.
2. Network connectivity is increasing dramatically and isn't slowing down. If Musk gets his way in a few years there will be 30,000 satellites hovering over your head giving you internet connectivity.
3. Private ownership of vehicles has only gotten cheaper over time, and will continue to get cheaper.
4. Nearly every example you came up with is great for consumers because it makes it easier to use the content AND it's easier to own the original medium. You and I are old fuckers, we know the experience of going to the store to buy a record/cassette/cd. Now I can Now I pop open spotify/pandora/whatever and start streaming whatwe want when we want it. We can also buy it on physical medium.

How much did we pay for this shit in the 90s?


Because it's $5 now (That's $2.33 in 1988 dollars), shipped to your door in two days for free.
 
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Ukerric

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This is pretty reactionary because:
...
4. Nearly every example you came up with is great for consumers because it makes it easier to use the content AND it's easier to own the original medium. You and I are old fuckers, we know the experience of going to the store to buy a record/cassette/cd. Now I can Now I pop open spotify/pandora/whatever and start streaming whatwe want when we want it. We can also buy it on physical medium.
For now.

Note that a number of your car functions are increasingly tied, not to network connectivity, but third party services. The Nissan incident is an example: a third party can easily prevent you from using your own possession at any time. Amazon can remove an edition of 1984 from your kindle at any time, and you are powerless to prevent it, because you no longer own your book. All of this work until the real owner decides - for whatever reason - this does not. I expect at one point your contract to specify that, if you do not undergo the yearly official check-up, the car dealership can remotely disable your vehicle "for safety reasons". You might have purchased your car, but you do not control it.

(remember the "great car insurance lockout". A number of high-end cars benefiting from "theft protection" saw their owners unable to drive - at least in two cases stopping in the middle of the highway when their engine simply shut down - when a disgruntled employee decide to sit at the control console and disable all cars, starting at with A...)
 

Tuco

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For now.

Note that a number of your car functions are increasingly tied, not to network connectivity, but third party services. The Nissan incident is an example: a third party can easily prevent you from using your own possession at any time. Amazon can remove an edition of 1984 from your kindle at any time, and you are powerless to prevent it, because you no longer own your book. All of this work until the real owner decides - for whatever reason - this does not. I expect at one point your contract to specify that, if you do not undergo the yearly official check-up, the car dealership can remotely disable your vehicle "for safety reasons". You might have purchased your car, but you do not control it.

(remember the "great car insurance lockout". A number of high-end cars benefiting from "theft protection" saw their owners unable to drive - at least in two cases stopping in the middle of the highway when their engine simply shut down - when a disgruntled employee decide to sit at the control console and disable all cars, starting at with A...)
Looking at these events and features and focusing on specific aspects while ignoring the rest of the industry is really myopic.

While it's true that amazon has control over their devices, the proliferation of those devices have made it easier than ever to find a pdf of 1984 and many other books.


I've been downloading books for a lot longer than kindle has been a thing, and before kindle you'd be really lucky to get a real ebook (as in, not photocopied) for books outside the top 1000 popular books of all time. Now? With amazon doing the legwork pushing ebooks and it being trivial to convert them to pdf it's never been easier to get and own permanent copies of books, plus you can easily download entire libraries of ebooks. It's the greatest proliferation of book ownership since the printing press, and you're sitting here complaining that it's harder to truly own books.
 
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Tuco

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Oh, and for your car example, yes vehicles with satellite / internet based theft protection can be disabled by disgruntled employees, but what do you think is more likely to cause a loss of property, a disgruntled employee or a car thief?

Despite your cherry picking, car ownership is firmer now than it ever has been before because if you want to steal a nice car you better bring a tow truck and either know where the gps tracker is in that car is or put her in a faraday cage before moving it to where it's stripped for parts.
 

pharmakos

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3. Private ownership of vehicles has only gotten cheaper over time, and will continue to get cheaper.
Is that true? The only sources I can find account for just the inflation adjusted sticker price of the vehicle, which has increased over time since 1967 but surprisingly not by a whole hell of a lot.

 
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khorum

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I was trolling a libcunt buddy on his anxiety about automation and blurted out "Y'all should just find a way to unionize robots!"

I could see the lightbulb popping behind his dull cuck eyes and knew, right then, that I've created a monster.
 
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Tuco

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Is that true? The only sources I can find account for just the inflation adjusted sticker price of the vehicle, which has increased over time since 1967 but surprisingly not by a whole hell of a lot.

I remember looking before I made this post and the first graph I saw had a negative slope, but like you said, not by much. Since you brought it up, a lot of those graphs are based on average prices, and I think the variance in "normal" car prices has increased over the years. There have always been expensive things to buy, but a person in 2019 can buy a cheap, used car for $5000 that is perfectly safe and reliable or spend a lot to get a new luxury class car for >$100,000.


I'm not a classic car guy so I don't know what a comparable car to a https://www.autotrader.com/nissan/versa would be ($12360) in 1967 ($1650 or so) dollars would be. I also don't know how long that 1967 budget car would last you and cost to keep repaired.

I also have no idea what kind of used car you could get in 1967 for $5000 ($650 in 1967)

But you can get a decent starter car now for that amount. ex:
 
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Cybsled

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Looks like the nightmare version of those sipping bird toys lol. I'm sure Amazon is paying super close attention to these, though.
 
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Foler

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I dunno how people who work warehouse jobs, fast-food or any autonomy replaceable jobs aren't freaking out and planning ahead.
 

Cybsled

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Not all those jobs are long term for people. Like fast food...most people aren’t going to plan for something still 10+ years out. Business isn’t going to adopt stuff until it is cost effective and does a better job than a person and/or vastly improves efficiency with less human workforce