Okay, so I need some advice for the 2014 season. For the first time in our league, we are going to have keepers. Each team gets to keep one player from their team but whichever round said player was drafted in last year, you lose that rounds draft pick. Keepers will be blind (meaning I won't know which players other teams kept) and have to be submitted before we know our draft order.
I have Adrian Peterson, so common wisdom would say just keep him and give up my first round pick. However, I also have Eddie Lacy who I would have to give up just my 5th round pick to keep. He was only 2 total points behind AP last year despite playing two less games. My thought is that I keep Lacy (who should be 1st round level talent next year) and gamble on being one the few people who still has a 1st round pick to grab AP again, and if I miss out on AP I still have Eddie Lacy nailing down my RB1 slot and a chance to get another 1st round caliber player.
Am I overthinking this and should just keep AP, or should I try to extract maximum value out of my keeper by keeping Lacy?