Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
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If you had told me a year ago we would rolling this forum with penny stocks I would have told you to GTFO. I don't know if we have evolved or de-evolved.
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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Arden
Blackwing Lair Raider
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Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Correspondent / Stock Pals CEO
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
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LachiusTZ
Rogue Deathwalker Box
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
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Interesting analysis that may only interest me.
Back in late November I felt the Markets had gotten too far ahead of themselves. The S&P and Nasdaq were about 25% above the 200 DMA. Looking at 10 years of data, I believed that a correction was in the works. I still do. I sold all my indexes (QQQ, QQQM, SPYG and XLK) and banked the considerable profits I had made. All the other investors in the world however felt different and the markets kept going up.
This would be a sad story of why you should never try to time the market, but that isnt what this is. I had spent nearly all of 2020 learning and trading options. In small amounts so my learning mistakes werent too costly. Instead of sitting on all that cash (which was about 45% of my total portfolio) and waiting for a correction that didnt happen, I pushed all the cash into my options plays. The idea being to make money on my cash while I wait for the correct that should come and then move the cash back into indexes.
I totaled up the results last night and compared them. Had I done nothing and sat on the indexes I would be up $5530 from that day to yesterday. Using that cash to run options I have made $5036 in profit. This will come down a little bit as I have some open puts I will be closing out for pennies at some point. End result I am down about $500 but I am good with that. One difference is the $5036 is realized profits, where had I stood pat it would still be paper profits and susceptible to a downturn taking some of it away. The other big difference is I still have all that cash to take advantage of the correction that will eventually come.
In all of my trades so far, I have only been assigned once writing puts and I am up about 2.5% so far writing calls on those shares combined with the stock price being up above what I paid for it. I think this forum is a good sounding board for people. There is little worse that existing in an echo chamber. I also practice what I preach. When I advise people to learn options with small amounts, its not do as I say not as I do. Its exactly how I taught myself. I am not a conservative investor, but I do balance risk and reward for my specific view. I play meme stocks and SPACs, but I control how much I risk in them and never get to be a hog about it. Reversion to the mean is mathematical certainty. The hot hand will eventually go cold. Don't get caught with too much on the table in high risk instruments when the dice turn.
This has been a Boomer advisory moment. You may now return to doggiecoin and penny pot stocks .
Back in late November I felt the Markets had gotten too far ahead of themselves. The S&P and Nasdaq were about 25% above the 200 DMA. Looking at 10 years of data, I believed that a correction was in the works. I still do. I sold all my indexes (QQQ, QQQM, SPYG and XLK) and banked the considerable profits I had made. All the other investors in the world however felt different and the markets kept going up.
This would be a sad story of why you should never try to time the market, but that isnt what this is. I had spent nearly all of 2020 learning and trading options. In small amounts so my learning mistakes werent too costly. Instead of sitting on all that cash (which was about 45% of my total portfolio) and waiting for a correction that didnt happen, I pushed all the cash into my options plays. The idea being to make money on my cash while I wait for the correct that should come and then move the cash back into indexes.
I totaled up the results last night and compared them. Had I done nothing and sat on the indexes I would be up $5530 from that day to yesterday. Using that cash to run options I have made $5036 in profit. This will come down a little bit as I have some open puts I will be closing out for pennies at some point. End result I am down about $500 but I am good with that. One difference is the $5036 is realized profits, where had I stood pat it would still be paper profits and susceptible to a downturn taking some of it away. The other big difference is I still have all that cash to take advantage of the correction that will eventually come.
In all of my trades so far, I have only been assigned once writing puts and I am up about 2.5% so far writing calls on those shares combined with the stock price being up above what I paid for it. I think this forum is a good sounding board for people. There is little worse that existing in an echo chamber. I also practice what I preach. When I advise people to learn options with small amounts, its not do as I say not as I do. Its exactly how I taught myself. I am not a conservative investor, but I do balance risk and reward for my specific view. I play meme stocks and SPACs, but I control how much I risk in them and never get to be a hog about it. Reversion to the mean is mathematical certainty. The hot hand will eventually go cold. Don't get caught with too much on the table in high risk instruments when the dice turn.
This has been a Boomer advisory moment. You may now return to doggiecoin and penny pot stocks .
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Blazin
Creative Title
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Moglyzoke Moogleman
Stock Pals VP of Shit Stocks
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I'm in on CLEU might be a tad late now. Well see what happens in about 15 minutes!
Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
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Furry
WoW Office
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With so many spacs running around, why settle for the offer you get at first talks? Another spac will probably settle for less.
Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
- 41,540
- 107,630
I have seen this story before. Every minor dip of the indexes gets bought up. I think we spent like 6 or 7 straight months in 2017 doing this.
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
- 41,540
- 107,630
Tmac
Adventurer
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Good for the timber industry, but that's about it lol.
I hate paper straws. I'm sure paper bottles will be similar. Surprise me Coke!
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just kind of stumbled on it when i was doing some dd on the future shift to electric vehicles and the materials required to make the batteries. uranium/cobalt/nickel etc. ill have to try to relocate the pdf but it was several hundred pages of carbon emissions stuff. anyhow, the biggest source of uranium mining is the congo..which is pretty far away for production considerations and also controversial child labor. this one is based in canada and aside from the news that this new area of discovery is their richest find to date they have several other mining locations for other materials nearby all within like ~14km of their processing mill.
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Sanrith Descartes
Von Clippowicz
- 41,540
- 107,630
Not sure where to put this so I will let
Blazin
move it where appropriate. Technical analysis is a big pond. There are all manner of technical tools available for investors. I am just going to skim the surface with this to touch on the most basic. Support levels and simple daily moving averages (SMA or DMA). Looking at a chart is great, but what is it really telling you by itself? There was a time when averages had to be calculated by hand. Luckily them olden days are behind us and any investor can set up a chart and have it run the math for him. This is the most basic chart I use. I track the intermediate support and resistance levels plus the 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 day simple moving averages. The averages are just that. The trailing average stock price over a period of time. Want to know when a stock is at a possible entry point? Want to sell puts and need to choose a strike? Want to know why a stock keeps dropping after it reaches a certain price? Don't guess, use the chart.
Let's look at AAPL. Current price was $134.38. If AAPL were to drift down I would believe that once it hits the 50 DMA of $131.21 it will bounce back up. Why? Because people and algos use technical levels to make decisions and the 50 DMA is one of those levels. Lets say it doesn't hold at $131.21. How far will it fall? My guess is its next support level would be the 100 DMA of $123.65. That is about 5% to the downside. Now it did establish some support around $126 three different times in January (marked in yellow) so that combined with the 100 DMA should provide it with some solid support. My guess is this is enough to hold it. Were it to crash through this, the blue horizontal line is its intermediate level of support at $115.17 and the 200 DMA at $110.45. After that... look out below. Maybe it grabs some support around $95 from all the way back in August.
Finally on the top side the stock has resistance at around $136. Until it can break it and hold above it for a period of time, it has a definitive trough it should follow (the blue and green horizontal lines). Notice it has been in that trough for about 6 months. It has tried to break above and below it, but moved back inside.
These charts take 5 minutes to setup and save. Every time you open a new chart it will have these markers on it.
Blazin
move it where appropriate. Technical analysis is a big pond. There are all manner of technical tools available for investors. I am just going to skim the surface with this to touch on the most basic. Support levels and simple daily moving averages (SMA or DMA). Looking at a chart is great, but what is it really telling you by itself? There was a time when averages had to be calculated by hand. Luckily them olden days are behind us and any investor can set up a chart and have it run the math for him. This is the most basic chart I use. I track the intermediate support and resistance levels plus the 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 day simple moving averages. The averages are just that. The trailing average stock price over a period of time. Want to know when a stock is at a possible entry point? Want to sell puts and need to choose a strike? Want to know why a stock keeps dropping after it reaches a certain price? Don't guess, use the chart.Let's look at AAPL. Current price was $134.38. If AAPL were to drift down I would believe that once it hits the 50 DMA of $131.21 it will bounce back up. Why? Because people and algos use technical levels to make decisions and the 50 DMA is one of those levels. Lets say it doesn't hold at $131.21. How far will it fall? My guess is its next support level would be the 100 DMA of $123.65. That is about 5% to the downside. Now it did establish some support around $126 three different times in January (marked in yellow) so that combined with the 100 DMA should provide it with some solid support. My guess is this is enough to hold it. Were it to crash through this, the blue horizontal line is its intermediate level of support at $115.17 and the 200 DMA at $110.45. After that... look out below. Maybe it grabs some support around $95 from all the way back in August.
Finally on the top side the stock has resistance at around $136. Until it can break it and hold above it for a period of time, it has a definitive trough it should follow (the blue and green horizontal lines). Notice it has been in that trough for about 6 months. It has tried to break above and below it, but moved back inside.
These charts take 5 minutes to setup and save. Every time you open a new chart it will have these markers on it.
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