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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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I spent some time this weekend analyzing baskets of holdings. Specifically ARKK, ARKX and QQQJ. I really want to like ARKX, but seeing things like WKHS and TCEHY in it gives me pause. I almost sort of get the AMZN portion since Bezos owns AMZN and also Blue Origin. And then there is the 0.75% net fee

ARKK is another one with a couple of questionable holdings but its mainly due to the weightings. And then the 0.75% net fee again.

QQQJ I own. I like the idea of smaller cap NASDAQ stocks. The more I dug into the bottom half of the holdings the more I found stuff I personally didnt like. Its got more airlines than I like, as well as more media stocks than I like (since I dont like any of them). I doubt it ends up being a long term hold that I thought it would be. I am up a couple of percent currently and will keep looking for something that hopefully fits my specific tastes. I think QQQJ is a good investment for the future, but like QQQ it has some companies I prefer to not own.
 
LachiusTZ

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Sanrith Descartes said:
I spent some time this weekend analyzing baskets of holdings. Specifically ARKK, ARKX and QQQJ. I really want to like ARKX, but seeing things like WKHS and TCEHY in it gives me pause. I almost sort of get the AMZN portion since Bezos owns AMZN and also Blue Origin. And then there is the 0.75% net fee

ARKK is another one with a couple of questionable holdings but its mainly due to the weightings. And then the 0.75% net fee again.

QQQJ I own. I like the idea of smaller cap NASDAQ stocks. The more I dug into the bottom half of the holdings the more I found stuff I personally didnt like. Its got more airlines than I like, as well as more media stocks than I like (since I dont like any of them). I doubt it ends up being a long term hold that I thought it would be. I am up a couple of percent currently and will keep looking for something that hopefully fits my specific tastes. I think QQQJ is a good investment for the future, but like QQQ it has some companies I prefer to not own.
Click to expand...

You and blazon should start us a not woke etf
 
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Flobee

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By the way IF the market does crash it will be because of a hack, definitely not due to rampant speculation, regulatory irresponsibility, money printing, supply chains, etc.

unlimitedhangout.com

WEF Warns of Cyberattack Leading to Systemic Collapse of the Global Financial System

A report published last year by the WEF-Carnegie Cyber Policy Initiative calls for the merging of Wall Street banks, their regulators and intelligence agencies as necessary to confront an allegedly imminent cyber attack that will collapse the existing financial system.
unlimitedhangout.com unlimitedhangout.com

Honest guys, the World Economic Forum can see the future, just like they saw COVID crash coming. You can trust 'em, really... the synchronized messaging isn't suspicious at all

www.forbes.com

Fed Chair Powell Warns That Cyber Attacks And Covid-19 Spreading Again Are The Biggest Risks To The Economy

The economy "seems to be at an inflection point," the Fed Chairman said in a rare televised appearance.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
 
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Tmac

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TJT said:
Having just bought a house again this will be good for me. The realtor I have spent 25 years in construction, planning, etc before he became a realtor and has given me a lot of insight on what's going on.

He has said that the price increases seem to mostly be due to industry shutdown/year of lockdowns. The logistical chain has been heavily disrupted for a year and it will take more than a year of normal operations to fully correct it. So, take Austin for example. For the past 10 or so years nearly any new construction you purchased would be built in 6 months or less. Lead times being understood and all the developers had similar time frames. Total custom jobs aside.

Now new constructions take around a year form purchase to completion.
Click to expand...

IDK if I agree w this. There are a lot of factors at work and I'll try to explain my perspective.

Timber prices are bottomed out while lumber prices are at ATH's--this makes no sense to me.
There are zero issues in the supply chain getting wood to the mill. You would expect to see a bump in timber prices if the mills were running out of wood, but they're not.--this makes no sense to me
I also know of several lumber mills that were doubling capacity two years ago and saw demand growing then and were prepared. Yet, the price is exploding.--this makes no sense to me
With housing increases slowing, lumber is still exploding--this makes no sense to me

I also acknowledge that housing starts got gutted in Feb - Apr 2020 and while I recognize the power of supply and demand, these 1000% increases in lumber don't add up.


Capture.PNG


My uncle is a builder--they didnt' slow down during COVID
My aunt works for a building supply company to huge contractors--they didn't slow down during COVID
I'm in the forestry business--none of my customers slowed down during COVID

The timber supply chain hasn't budged. They shut down a few mills for a month, but more of my customers are trying to add loggers than not. My uncle has been blowing and going all through COVID and my aunt always talks about the prices going up for a year out. Two weeks ago she was talking about contracts six months out that have materials priced at a 1000% increase to pre-COVID rates and 75% increase to COVID rates. So, the situation is only getting worse.

Shit does not make ANY sense to me from a supply chain stand-point, it makes no sense in regards to COVID, it doesn't make any sense at all.

One guy in the industry I talked to (he exports some wood products to China) said China is disrupting the lumber market by buying a ton of resources and driving up the price. He said they're intentionally trying to exacerbate problems caused by COVID and crash our housing market. I haven't seen any other evidence of this bc we don't have journalists in this country aynmore. However, there is something happening here which noone is accounting for a China doing bad things would fill in that gap.
 
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Tmac

Tmac

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Flobee said:
By the way IF the market does crash it will be because of a hack, definitely not due to rampant speculation, regulatory irresponsibility, money printing, supply chains, etc.

unlimitedhangout.com

WEF Warns of Cyberattack Leading to Systemic Collapse of the Global Financial System

A report published last year by the WEF-Carnegie Cyber Policy Initiative calls for the merging of Wall Street banks, their regulators and intelligence agencies as necessary to confront an allegedly imminent cyber attack that will collapse the existing financial system.
unlimitedhangout.com unlimitedhangout.com

Honest guys, the World Economic Forum can see the future, just like they saw COVID crash coming. You can trust 'em, really... the synchronized messaging isn't suspicious at all

www.forbes.com

Fed Chair Powell Warns That Cyber Attacks And Covid-19 Spreading Again Are The Biggest Risks To The Economy

The economy "seems to be at an inflection point," the Fed Chairman said in a rare televised appearance.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
Click to expand...

If they're going to lob us an easy-to-read forecast of things to come, how do we make tendies off of it?

[edit]
"The report’s authors argue that, “in the event of a crisis,” such as a devastating cyberattack on the global banking system, “social media companies should swiftly amplify communications by central banks” so that central banks may “debunk fake information” and “calm the markets.” It also states that “financial authorities, financial services firms and tech companies [presumably including social media companies] should develop a clear communications and response plan focused on being able to react swiftly.” Notably, both Facebook and Twitter are listed in the report’s appendix as “industry stakeholders” that have “engaged” with the WEF-Carnegie initiative."

SHOCKED! SHOCKED I SAY!
 
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Blazin

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I just went long SLV and GDX . Not a high conviction trade but I think it’s worth the attempt
 
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Fogel

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I know its been fun to make fun of intel, but for as bad as they've been doing and as good as NVDA has been doing, Intel is up 20% since it nose dived in october yet in the same time frame NVDA is only up 5%

Edit: Up 20% from pre nose dive levels, up 50% after nose dive
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Fogel said:
I know its been fun to make fun of intel, but for as bad as they've been doing and as good as NVDA has been doing, Intel is up 20% since it nose dived in october yet in the same time frame NVDA is only up 5%

Edit: Up 20% from pre nose dive levels, up 50% after nose dive
Click to expand...
It has greatly benefited from the overall rise in both the DJIA and the SP500 since it is a large component of each. I dont see it having made that huge run from the pit all on its own.
 
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P

Pharazon2

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Intel's poor performance has been priced in for a long time - on average it stayed pretty flat last year when everything else was going up. Nvidia has been priced high for future growth for a long time. 80 P/E vs. low teens P/E.

I think Intel's biggest growth prospects are in contracting out fab; new management simply showing that they are interested in pursuing this is why its been doing better lately. Worth a little bet. I had bought some at high 40's, sold at 60 hoping to see a lower re-entry point come again but it hasn't happened.

Fogel said:
I know its been fun to make fun of intel, but for as bad as they've been doing and as good as NVDA has been doing, Intel is up 20% since it nose dived in october yet in the same time frame NVDA is only up 5%

Edit: Up 20% from pre nose dive levels, up 50% after nose dive
Click to expand...

As bad as Intel has been doing and as well as Nvidia has been doing, Intel still makes 5x as much money as Nvidia yet its market cap is lower. The market is forward looking but Nvidia would have to have an unfathomably perfect run over the next 5 years to even sniff the type of profits Intel gets today.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Pharazon2 said:
Intel's poor performance has been priced in for a long time - on average it stayed pretty flat last year when everything else was going up. Nvidia has been priced high for future growth for a long time. 80 P/E vs. low teens P/E.

I think Intel's biggest growth prospects are in contracting out fab; new management simply showing that they are interested in pursuing this is why its been doing better lately. Worth a little bet. I had bought some at high 40's, sold at 60 hoping to see a lower re-entry point come again but it hasn't happened.



As bad as Intel has been doing and as well as Nvidia has been doing, Intel still makes 5x as much money as Nvidia yet its market cap is lower. The market is forward looking but Nvidia would have to have an unfathomably perfect run over the next 5 years to even sniff the type of profits Intel gets today.
Click to expand...
I look at MSFT and INTC and see two companies who were at the same place 20 years ago and took divergent paths. I view INTC as not having gone much outside of its previous path and kept doing the same old same old. I think MSFT branched out. Struck out some but also hit some home runs. I think that is why they are in two different places today.
 
Big Phoenix

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Theyve tried.

They tried making GPUs once before but that failed.

They tried making smartphones but that failed.

They tried making modems but that failed.

They tried getting into software/security with McAfee but that failed.

Theyre trying to get into fpgas with alterra but not much has come of that so far.

Theyre just an absolutely horribly managed company kept afloat by its now only quasi monopoly position.
 
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LachiusTZ

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Tmac said:
IDK if I agree w this. There are a lot of factors at work and I'll try to explain my perspective.

Timber prices are bottomed out while lumber prices are at ATH's--this makes no sense to me.
There are zero issues in the supply chain getting wood to the mill. You would expect to see a bump in timber prices if the mills were running out of wood, but they're not.--this makes no sense to me
I also know of several lumber mills that were doubling capacity two years ago and saw demand growing then and were prepared. Yet, the price is exploding.--this makes no sense to me
With housing increases slowing, lumber is still exploding--this makes no sense to me

I also acknowledge that housing starts got gutted in Feb - Apr 2020 and while I recognize the power of supply and demand, these 1000% increases in lumber don't add up.


View attachment 347716

My uncle is a builder--they didnt' slow down during COVID
My aunt works for a building supply company to huge contractors--they didn't slow down during COVID
I'm in the forestry business--none of my customers slowed down during COVID

The timber supply chain hasn't budged. They shut down a few mills for a month, but more of my customers are trying to add loggers than not. My uncle has been blowing and going all through COVID and my aunt always talks about the prices going up for a year out. Two weeks ago she was talking about contracts six months out that have materials priced at a 1000% increase to pre-COVID rates and 75% increase to COVID rates. So, the situation is only getting worse.

Shit does not make ANY sense to me from a supply chain stand-point, it makes no sense in regards to COVID, it doesn't make any sense at all.

One guy in the industry I talked to (he exports some wood products to China) said China is disrupting the lumber market by buying a ton of resources and driving up the price. He said they're intentionally trying to exacerbate problems caused by COVID and crash our housing market. I haven't seen any other evidence of this bc we don't have journalists in this country aynmore. However, there is something happening here which noone is accounting for a China doing bad things would fill in that gap.
Click to expand...

The bottleneck are the mills. They are making windfall profits, and there aren't enough to satisfy demand for lumber, or supply of timber.

Mills are expensive.

Weyerhauser or whatever, and other large holders have so much timber, they might be able to starve out new mills in a lot of places.
 
Tmac

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LachiusTZ said:
The bottleneck are the mills. They are making windfall profits, and there aren't enough to satisfy demand for lumber, or supply of timber.

Mills are expensive.

Weyerhauser or whatever, and other large holders have so much timber, they might be able to starve out new mills in a lot of places.
Click to expand...

A lot of landowners that should've sold their timber in 2008 are still holding on to it. So, add 13 years of timber inventory to the market.

Even considering this (which I have) it still doesn't make sense.
 
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