Investing General Discussion

Jysin

Bronze Baronet of the Realm
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If you like paying a higher interest rate, otherwise.. no
 
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Big Phoenix

Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
<Gold Donor>
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It may well be worth it for AI to be a bubble, pop, tank the economy just to destroy Oracle.

 
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fred sanford

Sanford & Son: Owner, Operator
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
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It may well be worth it for AI to be a bubble, pop, tank the economy just to destroy Oracle.
They deserve it just for the recent changes to their support site. It’s the most pain in the ass implementation of AI on a site ever conceived by pajeets.
 

Borzak

<Bronze Donator>
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Makes you wonder what sites and such they use for training the AI. Of course if they used the sites I visit often the bots would rise up and rebel.
 

Haus

I am Big Balls!
<Gold Donor>
17,869
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QE back already baby. Also 25BP cut

View attachment 611849
This sounds like their positioning to know they're going to have to buy a mountain of treasuries for all those that are expiring and have to be reissued next year. It's an insane amount, I believe around 1/3rd of the entire national debt will have to be refinanced (they're even calling it the "debt maturity wall" or $10B). This is a big reason Trump has such a hard on for pushing interest rates lower, as that will affect how much the treasury will have to pay on it's re-issuance.

It's like the worst case scenario of an ARM mortgage, but on a national debt level scale.

So with that, there is probably immense pressure on the Fed to be ready to step in and soak a ton of debt issuance onto their balance sheets. Since a tepid market of buyers for our national debt would make the government have to pay more to get people to buy it. (Google "US Debt Auction" I believe).

The F-U would be if a group of large current debt holding countries (looking at China and Japan for instance) all boycotted US treasury issuance next year, but that would be tantamount to a declaration of war in the eyes of certain orange presidents.
 
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TJT

Mr. Poopybutthole
<Gold Donor>
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It may well be worth it for AI to be a bubble, pop, tank the economy just to destroy Oracle.


Larry Ellison is the pinnacle geezer who can't let go. 81 years old and still an active executive. Still looking at things like he'll be around in 20 years.
 
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Tmac

Adventurer
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Larry Ellison is the pinnacle geezer who can't let go. 81 years old and still an active executive. Still looking at things like he'll be around in 20 years.

Eh, it's good if he's still looking at things like he'll be around in 20 years. The worst aged CEO's are the ones that are looking to retire in 3-5 years and don't care about the next 20.
 

Tirant

Lord Nagafen Raider
251
137
Looking at my end-of-year balancing. I'd like to move some of my ETFs out of basic cap-weighted S&P500 since theyre so overweight and I own some MAG7 straight. Really looking at taking a more defensive posture without selling out of stocks.

What's everyone's favorite alternate to SPY? Something along the lines of VTI, equal weight S&P, etc. Probably not VTI since its also so heavy MAG7, but something that makes a good core in a portfolio (50% ish of portfolio). In the past I've used VIG (dividend growth) but I also don't like that it's largest holding is Broadcom. I'd probably even consider BRK as an option, but wouldn't do 50% in one stock. Typing this out I'm leaning towards equal weight S&P500 but want to hear some other opinions.
 

Synj

Dystopian Dreamer
<Gold Donor>
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Looking at my end-of-year balancing. I'd like to move some of my ETFs out of basic cap-weighted S&P500 since theyre so overweight and I own some MAG7 straight. Really looking at taking a more defensive posture without selling out of stocks.

What's everyone's favorite alternate to SPY? Something along the lines of VTI, equal weight S&P, etc. Probably not VTI since its also so heavy MAG7, but something that makes a good core in a portfolio (50% ish of portfolio). In the past I've used VIG (dividend growth) but I also don't like that it's largest holding is Broadcom. I'd probably even consider BRK as an option, but wouldn't do 50% in one stock. Typing this out I'm leaning towards equal weight S&P500 but want to hear some other opinions.

Check VTV, Vanguard value etf. Pop in SPY or VOO and you’ll see VTV underweight in Mag7 vs SPY but overweight in financials and healthcare etc.
 

Rangoth

Vyemm Raider
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RSP is the equal weight SPY I believe, always IWM too. Both of those will take a hit in a downturn/bear market though, so are you trying to lose some weight in MAG7 or looking to take a defensive/hedged posture? Those seem like potentially different things
 

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
7,652
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Stonks Contest Update with 2 weeks to go, D Dalren and Soygen Soygen are the closest guesses. This is the list of people that are within 5% of current price. So any of these are in the window of could happen. Couple more trading days and could probably narrow window down to 3% up or down

Kaines7050
Flobee7000
Falstaff6950
Hateyou6925
fris6900
Omayga6875
Soygen6750
Dalren6700
Aorin6650
Tmac6625
Seananigans6600
karma6550
Jysin6475
majeo6425
Blazin6400
 
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Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
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Dang, I whiffed on this one at 5500. I really expected the downturn to hit midway through the year and that we'd start hitting the lows about now.

Guess I couldn't have really foreseen the AI thing lifting the entire market.
 
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Kithani

Blackwing Lair Raider
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Dang, I whiffed on this one at 5500. I really expected the downturn to hit midway through the year and that we'd start hitting the lows about now.

Guess I couldn't have really foreseen the AI thing lifting the entire market.
Bruce Lee Meme GIF by Justin
 
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Sludig

Potato del Grande
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12,028
Return to thread after not watching in a while, wife wants to put small amounts into a fidelity account seperate from her 401k etc, she isn't going to be savvy enough for watching individual stocks, trying to argue with me on just dumping into just an S&P 500 fund. Noticed FXAIX is .01 less expense ratio than the vanguard option on there, any other suggestions?
 

Kithani

Blackwing Lair Raider
1,922
2,700
Return to thread after not watching in a while, wife wants to put small amounts into a fidelity account seperate from her 401k etc, she isn't going to be savvy enough for watching individual stocks, trying to argue with me on just dumping into just an S&P 500 fund. Noticed FXAIX is .01 less expense ratio than the vanguard option on there, any other suggestions?
What is your wife arguing with you about?
 

Sludig

Potato del Grande
11,132
12,028
What is your wife arguing with you about?
I dont even know, she I think is just wanting to maybe more actively invest, but then she was almost too scared to do any of it herself and made me suggest fidelity app. I linked her here to maybe read up and decide if she wants to actively manage a few stocks, otherwise just like my 401k I think snp 500 is going to be simplest safest. Unless I could rewind time for nvidea.


The amount she's putting in is small potatoes so it doesn't really matter too much. Though I'd like to see her get some decent returns and maybe dive into it more heavily, yknow make the CPA actually do more stuff. I'm still trying to get brave enough for both of us to cut our checks enough to max 401k and just sip off savings. Had 100k sitting in sofi making 4.8% at one point, but it's down to 3.6 so I'm thinking it may be time to put it to better work. Maybe cut our liquid reserve down to 50k and either put 50k in the market or I forget how putting it into a Roth IRA would work (forget it counts against 401k amount you can put in yearly) I would prefer more liquid so we can shell out 30k for a roof or a new car.
 
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