NFL 2019 Season: It's Tricky!

Ameraves said:

Honestly? I just wish a team would give him a shot, so everyone can get a reminder of how terrible a QB he is. He has a cannon for an arm, and can run like a gazelle. Unfortunately he can't read a defense for shit, and if he has to go past his 1st receiver he is fucked. Pressure in the pocket? Better start panicking and running around!

The longer he goes without playing the more credit people give him that he just doesn't deserve. I truly hope some team gives him a chance. Really, really hope.

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I could not agree more. For starters, he only played 5 years which isn't all that much considering how long many of today's starters have been starting. Additionally, he's a career 60% completion rate passer, which is shit. He's never passed for more than 3,300 yards. Again, hardly noteworthy in today's NFL. And he's never posted more than 21 TDs in a season (along with 8 picks that year). Oh and he only ran for a modest 500 yds a season.

But there was that one game against the Packers...../facepalm.

Yes, he played in a Super Bowl in 2013...and was largely terrible in a game where the score ended up being a lot closer than it really was.

To your point, he probably knows he stands to lose a lot more if he ever plays again than if he doesn't. So I'll give him that much.

I'm just anxious to see what new, heartbreaking way my Saints will finish up this year. Gonna be hard to top the last two.

zzeris said:

As an old Marino fan, I have a soft spot for QBs who deserve more than they've gotten. Every year I hope to see a ring on either Felipe Rios's hand or another on Brees. Both deserve better than they've gotten in the Era of Belichick.

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No ties to the Dolphins but loved Marino while growing up. It was always disappointing to me that he never got a ring. For that matter, to only make one SB appearance will always be hard to believe, especially since he did it at such an early age. I think everyone thought that was the first of many to come.

As for Brees, it took him much longer to get there but at least they won it when he did. I'll always harbor some ill will towards Goodell for the whole Bountygate bullshit and its effects in sabotaging the 2012 season, especially given how absolutely terrifying the offense was going into that season. But the hard truth of it is, the team's front office whiffed on so many defensive players during that time and that's ultimately what led to them missing out on more possible appearances.

Then there's the whiff on Diggs on the last play to end that 2017 playoff run and last year's unbelievable no-call of PI at the end of the NFCCG. Like Marino, Brees has deserved better.

I predict this year, the Saints will finally get back to the Super Bowl and have a 28-3 lead going into the 4th quarter before another defensive gaffe sparks a four TD run by the Patriots (who else) to win it at the buzzer. This is how long-time Saints fans have been conditioned to think over the years.

I mean, I feel like that's been done before (burn!) but it's about the only way they could top the last 2 years. And that's when Brees will finally say "fuck it" and tap out.

jooka said:

Cody Kessler in concussion protocol

The Eagles didn't add a quarterback to the roster after Nate Sudfeld broke his wrist last week.

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com

Time for Kaep? He also has Superbowl experience since you know Wentz won't be healthy

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Seriously speaking...This is exactly what Kaep needs to make his glorious comeback! A good team that we know has a fragile QB. A city that won't give a fuck that he "played" himself out the league.

Aaaand you remember his dumb ass wants starter money.

And this:

It's been so long, I don't even remember Kaep's play except for him running wild on the Packers in that Playoff game. All I know is that my 49'er friends hated him by the end.

Fight said:

It's been so long, I don't even remember Kaep's play except for him running wild on the Packers in that Playoff game. All I know is that my 49'er friends hated him by the end.

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Remember that time when the Niners giddily shipped off Alex Smith, thinking they had their new franchise QB locked up for the next decade?

Niners fan certainly does.

Vinjin said:

And now the Kaepernick drama starts up all over again. I mean, ten years from now, some random asshat writer will post yet another blowhard article of why Colin Kaepernick should get another shot at QB over random_QB_14 just to keep this bullshit drama going.

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It loses credibility as each year passes, and I'm a Kaep defender. The reality is that there's no way he isn't rusty as fuck not having practiced with NFL level players in anything resembling game situations for like 3 years now? No way guy comes off the street after that long and doesn't have trouble getting timing back and everything else, not to mention if he went to a team where he'd have to learn a new offense. Unless some team signed him right after a season so he could be a part of the entire offseason process to try to get up to speed with their system, it's all just a pipe dream. Even given that perfect setup, you're likely talking about competing for a backup spot at best given his time off.

Vinjin said:

Remember that time when the Niners giddily shipped off Alex Smith, thinking they had their new franchise QB locked up for the next decade?

Niners fan certainly does.

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Although...not like Alex Smith covered himself in glory either. 1-4 in the playoffs since leaving the Niners. We also saw what an elite QB could do with those weapons the Chiefs have after Mahomes took over his spot.

Vinjin said:

I could not agree more. For starters, he only played 5 years which isn't all that much considering how long many of today's starters have been starting. Additionally, he's a career 60% completion rate passer, which is shit. He's never passed for more than 3,300 yards. Again, hardly noteworthy in today's NFL. And he's never posted more than 21 TDs in a season (along with 8 picks that year). Oh and he only ran for a modest 500 yds a season.

But there was that one game against the Packers...../facepalm.

Yes, he played in a Super Bowl in 2013...and was largely terrible in a game where the score ended up being a lot closer than it really was.

To your point, he probably knows he stands to lose a lot more if he ever plays again than if he doesn't. So I'll give him that much.

I'm just anxious to see what new, heartbreaking way my Saints will finish up this year. Gonna be hard to top the last two.

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I agree on the 60% completion rating being far too low for a starter, absolutely his biggest flaw, although his last two years he was working with what was probably the worst group of receivers in the NFL. He did actually top 3,300 yards in 2014, he hit 3,369. It's hard to judge mainly because he only had 2 years when he played all 16 games, and didn't even hit 480 attempts in either of those seasons. For comparison, for a long time Flacco had never thrown for 4k yards in a season, but finally threw for 4,317 yards in 2016...on 672 passing attempts. Most of Flacco's career he was throwing 3600-3900 yards a year, but on 500+ and 600+ passing attempts. Kaep hit 3197 and 3369 in back to back years, but on 416 and 478 attempts. For reference, 17 QB's had more then 480 passing attempts last year.

I'm unsure why listing 8 picks alongside 21 TD's makes that a bad number. 2.625 TD:Int ratio is a very good number, and in fact Kaep's career 2.4 mark in that stat is the 4th best all time, behind only Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Tom Brady.

Honestly he was only ever "bad" his final two years, one of which he was hurt for parts/most of it and both after the Niners basically disintegrated before everyone's eyes, and his final year he still managed 16 TD's to only 4 picks, with noted WR threats Jeremy Kerley and Quinton Patton leading that 2016 Niners team in targets.

Ameraves said:

Care to explain why? I just can't believe you look back at his play, outside of a very few games, and think yeah that guy is a very good QB

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Well I kind of just posted that already in another response. People forget how bad that Niner team was in 2016, and that Kaep played hurt in 2015. I'm not trying to make any argument he was a top 15 QB in the league, not by any stretch, but people making him out to be not even backup level for teams going into the 2017 season are crazy. Where would he be at now? Who knows, he hasn't played in 3 years. My guess is it would take far too long for him to get back up to speed for it to be worth anyone signing him at this point.

Ameraves said:

So I won't deny that he isn't backup level material. My issue is with all these people saying he only isn't playing because he is being blackballed by the league cause of his protests. And that he is better than many of the starters currently out there. That narrative is 100% bullshit, and that is what is annoying. Is he a capable backup? Sure. He is a capable starter? Probably not.

I get your point about him being awful on an awful 49ers team, but he was also never more than average even at his best. There is not a single team he could go play for now, and he would make them appreciably better.

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I think a lot of people/discussions about him get lost in the nebulous area between "better than many starters out there" vs. "deserves a spot on a roster". Because there is a big gap in between those two statements. I think going into 2017 there were definitely a spot or two where you could make the case he was as good or better than the starter...make them better? That's tougher, b/c like I noted above if he had to learn a new offense, that takes time for anyone. Make them better now? No I don't think anyone can make that case given 2-3 years of not playing, that's crazy.

I just see so many who get fired up over the protests and look to bring down his ability with whatever stats they think they can use to make him look bad, especially his record his final year...despite playing on the team with the worst receivers in the league, that had the dead fucking last defense that was giving up 30 points a game on average.

Knocking his aggregate passing stats is another popular choice, and many act like Alex Smith put up monster numbers with the same group...Smith never threw for 20 TD's in San Fran. Didn't do it until he went to Kansas City. Smith's most passing yards in a season with San Fran was 3,144. Kaep threw for more than that both times he actually played full seasons with the Niners. You read so many posts that make Kaepernick out to be this turnover machine throwing picks left and right, but he literally has the 4th best TD:Int ratio in history.

Merrith said:

he literally has the 4th best TD:Int ratio in history.

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When the cutoff is 1500 pass attempts. Dak's current ratio at 1,475 attempts is 2.6... just ahead of your boy.

Be careful how much you want to lean on that stat.

Kaines said:

When the cutoff is 1500 pass attempts. Dak's current ratio at 1,475 attempts is 2.6... just ahead of your boy.

Be careful how much you want to lean on that stat.

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That just means...Dak is good at taking care of the ball too? Dak's TD and Int % are very similar to Kaepernick's.

I think that's a somewhat misleading stat in that the game has changed and teams just don't go as wild down the field as they used to. If you're just running read option and most of your passes are just dump offs of course you wouldn't throw as many picks as say someone like Marino or Bradshaw or whoever did back in the day.

Sterling said:

I think that's a somewhat misleading stat in that the game has changed and teams just don't go as wild down the field as they used to. If you're just running read option and most of your passes are just dump offs of course you wouldn't throw as many picks as say someone like Marino or Bradshaw or whoever did back in the day.

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You're definitely going to see more modern players on the list, Rodgers alone has so many crazy records for X attempts between picks, I'm sure Brady has some himself, too. Defenders can't play as "heavy" as they used to, either.

But there's definitely trends when you look at guys' TD and Int %'s. Dak and Kaep actually are within 0.2% and 0.1% for their numbers for each of those. Whereas someone like Alex Smith has a slightly lower TD % (notoriously a "safe" passer) than either, although Smith's Int % for his career is technically higher than both Dak and Kaep, a lot of that is skewed from his early years, as over the past 6 years he's below a 1.5 which is very low. A guy like Kirk Cousins on the other hand, is a bit more of an "action" passer, in that he has a higher TD and Int %. Matt Ryan same type of tiers as Cousins.