3rd party doesn't work with Nintendo because Nintendo is a pain in the ass to work with from a financial and logistical perspective. It has nothing to do with "Oh man those 9 heavily anticipated 1st party titles came out over the course of the last 6 years... We will never be able to compete."
When 3rd parties are in the same launch window as a Nintendo 1st party title on Nintendo hardware, the 3rd party gets destroyed in sales. That's all I'm saying.
Licensing costs across the three platforms is pretty uniform now as well, based on indie developer interviews.
Also, EPROM based flash carts are not a mainstream manufacturing method? That's idiotic. Discs as a medium are already dead - nothing in this generation actually use them as games media. I'd be surprised if the next generation isn't all digital or write only cartridge based. The price of flash carts has already gotten cheap enough where it can compete with discs again, and will continue to get cheaper. The physical medium just needs to get the data from the store to your console to be installed on the hard drive anyways, and carts do away with the need for moving parts in your console assuming flash doesn't get cheap enough where they can include SSDs out of the box.
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