Survivor: Blood vs. Water

Cierra is shattering the "worthless, coat-tail riding girl" mold and doing everything within her power to play to win. I respect it and I love it. She has won me over and I am rooting for her to the end.

From day one she was probably the smallest and weakest player on the island. You had to question her emotional stability and smarts, being that she had a kid at 16. All signs pointed towards her going out in the first couple weeks, or being a leach on a power players ass to the end. She showed the jury this tribal that her destiny is her own and she is not content riding it out to a 2nd or 3rd place finish.

Tyson, Monica, and Gervase have a tough decision next week. Do they take out Cierra, out of spite? Or, do they remove the physical threat of Hayden? I can't believe that they will turn on each other now, such as the preview suggests. It just makes no sense.

BrutulTM_sl said:

I think Gervase is the most delusional player this season. He has somehow convinced himself that if he gets to the end with Tyson people are going to vote for him even though everyone is telling him that they won't. He is the biggest obstacle to getting Tyson out at this point.

Click to expand...

Yeah, Gervase has no shot. Every time he talks, he screws himself and his alliance.

That said, I think the only person Tyson can beat is Gervase. It's possible he could win going up against Gervase/Monica, but I feel like Monica would take it. Looking at the jury last night, they all seem pretty pissed at Tyson. Add in Hayden and that's 4 who probably won't vote for him. Just takes one more butthurt to knock him out of contention. Not really sure how Tina and Katie would vote, but I'm almost positive they vote the same. More than likely, Katie convinces her mom to vote for anyone but Tyson.

Tyson probably WAS playing a good game, but lately he's been the poster child of the alliance and everyone sees him as the dick of the group. That's not good Survivor strategy. I'd say Hayden wins if he can pull off some timely immunity challenges, or if he breaks up the alliance gunning for him. Ciera has a shot if Hayden is gone. And Monica otherwise.

Based on the editing on the show so far I can't see anyone other than Tyson winning, unless Tyson's arch is that he falls just short of victory getting voted out at final 4 (his new idol pretty much assures him top 4) and I don't think we'll have a bitter jury this year preventing Tyson from getting a deserved win.

Hayden has taken over my favorite player this season on the strength of his last 2 episodes. Yes, his plans failed both times, but he has proven to be 1) A nice, likable guy who seems very genuine, 2) A player who wants to make moves and not sit idle as the game passes him by and 3) Someone who won't be bitter and knows everyone is playing a game (Probably because he's already won a million bucks). I'd like to see him win fan favorite, but he was probably too invisible for too long to get enough votes.

TL;DR : I think Tyson wins if he gets to the end, by a large margin in the vote and Hayden is too smart to be dating Kat.

lanx_sl said:

well i guess i worded it wrong, she is really fit, but fit to the point of, kinda not easy to watch and you want to shove a hamburger in her kinda mal-nourished.

Click to expand...

Huh? Still don't get it... Monica is a beast. None of the people this season look all that malnourished, compared to other seasons.

It is no secret that Survivor goes to great effort to put in challenges that benefit smaller frames, balance, and strength. She isn't winning by fluke. She would beat a wide swath of the general population at this stuff, not just her Survivor competitors.

I think Tyson, Gervase, and Monica fend off the rest of them to make final 3. Monica wins by default because the bitter jury hates the boys.

Russell feathers was the best part of the episode.

Yeah Tyson is a real idiot savant.

And I guess I'm in the minority when it comes to Ciera. As ballsy as her move was, it just put a huge target on her back and never really accomplished anything. I don't think she can beat Hayden in a final tribal and allying herself with him at this juncture really does nothing for her except piss of the alliance she dropped. If she was truly thinking about endgame, she would have wanted to keep floppy tits around to bring to the end with Gervase. But the people capable of beating her are still in the game. When you have a chance to take out a legitimate threat that is standing between you and the million, while keeping some shitty pawns around... just seemed like a no brainer to me.

My prediction for next week:

When you are down to 6 and you know that you are the 4th on the chopping block, it was a now or never situation for Cierra. A 3v3 tie was the only hope at removing someone from the top 3 out of the game. After that week it was down to 5 people and Tyson, Gervase, Monica could pick off who ever they wanted without threat of repercussion.

As for putting a target on her back... who cares? She took the gamble, it didn't pay off, but she did win favor with the jury. Maybe Hayden does beat her, but maybe not? People like him, but he is already a wealthy young man... while Cierra was a teenage mother, who took on 3 jobs, graduated highschool, and is now a student. She has a pretty compelling case to put in-front of a jury. Add some girl-tears in there and she could win in a landslide vote.

Tyson tells them he has the second idol so why doesn't the other two in his alliance see he needs to go? If he makes it to the end he wins.

I honestly think Monica has a shot... She's a challenge beast, and legitimately won them. She has staid true to her alliance, and could point to the fact that even though they were dicks she stuck to her word. Her weakness is not making any moves but then she could say she let Tyson get his hands bloody so she didn't have to. The only one that does not have a prayer, and it's not even close, is Gervase. Wow, that guy is six shades of stupid on top of two helpings of dumb.

Gervase doesn't seem classically stupid to me, just delusional in an egotistical way.

Hayden's true strengths have been a solid social game and how he handled himself at the tribal councils, but ill say it again, dude sucks ass at challenges, or at best is middle of the pack. I know you guys have mentioned he won at Big Brother and I've never seen that show. Does it have interesting challenges or is it mostly social?

I'll give Tyson a ton of credit for keeping calm and controlling his emotions at tribal. Christ, this is the most unsure I have been at this stage of a Surv. season about who is probably going to win and who cannot win. (except Gervase, don't think he has a shot but who knows if the jury remains so butthurt against Tyson, and they simply don't like Monica, eh?)

Give me your speculations. I want to know what some of you alll think.

Really sad for the Wesson's, that Tina and Katie lost their 25 year old son/brother last week. With that in mind, I'll just say that Katie is a strong person to make it out there for a month and she is a beautiful young lady.

Gervase has a short emotional fuse and is completely delusional about his contributions to the game. It goes back to the first episode when he nearly cost his team the challenge, yet he was the one at the end rubbing the other teams nose in it. I know it is strange to think of strong man, with a big mouth as a coattail rider, but if the shoe fits... He won't receive 1 vote from the jury.

Tyson wants to think he has played a perfect game, but he has no friends or allies on the jury. He has to hope and rely on Outplay, Outwit, and Outlast to be his saving grace. It won't work.

Monica, as troubled and unsure as she looked at tonight's tribal made the obvious and correct choice. She has put herself in position to be the "best of the worst" alternative decision for the jury.

I love Cierra's game, but she has taken it as far as she can. It's over now. Maybe we get to see her again in a future season.

The Monica, Tyson, Gervase trio stays strong. One of them steps up and gets the immunity at the final 4 challenge. We get a mostly lack luster final tribal and the bitter jury gives Monica the $1 million.

Pumpkin Thief_sl said:

Gervase doesn't seem classically stupid to me, just delusional in an egotistical way.

Hayden's true strengths have been a solid social game and how he handled himself at the tribal councils, but ill say it again, dude sucks ass at challenges, or at best is middle of the pack. I know you guys have mentioned he won at Big Brother and I've never seen that show. Does it have interesting challenges or is it mostly social?

Click to expand...

The game is very largely social. The challenges don't really become vital until the final four or five. The voting dynamic is much different in BB. Winning a challenge in that game gives someone the power to choose who votes go to, and it's only two people (or three for last season). A second challenge gives the winner the opportunity to remove one of the original picks, and the original winner has to pick another replacement. Each round (from tribal to tribal) is 3 days in survivor, where it is 7 days in BB. To me the game is orders of magnitude more social than survivor.

That is funny about Hayden, I don't remember him winning many challenges in BB until the final (and most important) ones. His biggest strength was his alliance that is for sure (as someone else stated), and he almost pulled that off early in this season of Survivor. The tribe swap really hurt him and Caleb the most, and Vyttas and Aras went with Aras' alliance instead of Vyttas' and it ended up costing all of them the game.