Gina Prince Bythewood’s
The Woman King was grandly received at the Toronto Film Festival last week. Currently Certified Fresh at 94%, the historical action epic is just the 10th wide release of the year to register over 90% on the Tomatometer (and three of those are anime films). Earning $1.7 million in previews on Thursday, there was some low-balling that the final number for the weekend was going to come in between $13-16 million. Pre-pandemic, the lowest opening weekend for a film with $1 million in Thursday receipts was
Rambo: Last Blood with $18.8 million followed closely by
Ad Astra’s $19 million. The bulk of numbers in that range before 2020 hovered in the $25 million range. Alas, numbers aren’t all that they used to be, but a final estimate coming in with $19 million is a positive.
The average gross of a September release making between $16-20 million is a decent $55.5 million, boosted slightly by the only film in that range to reach $100 million,
The First Wives Club.
The Woman King’s $50 million budget would like something a bit higher than that, as it may not be helped much by international returns. Only 6 of the 25 films on that September list reached $60 million. Yet given the nature of the upcoming schedule,
The Woman King appears likely to be a member of the top 10 through the end of October, especially given its A+ Cinemascore. (
Top Gun: Maverick is the only other “A+” of 2022.) That grade is also not uncommon for films with primarily African-American casts, and word-of-mouth has often translated to multiples well over three times their opening weekend. It may not be enough to cover the film’s budget, but it could still be a success story in other ways.
abcnews.go.com
editorial.rottentomatoes.com
